路灯之外：美联储研究与统计司的经济计量（英）

Federal Reserve Board, Washington, D.C.ISSN 1936-2854 (Print)ISSN 2767-3898 (Online) Beyond the Streetlight: Economic Measurement in the Division ofResearch and Statistics at the Federal Reserve Carol Corrado, Arthur Kennickell, and Tomaz Cajner 2025-019 Please cite this paper as:Corrado, Carol, Arthur Kennickell, and Tomaz Cajner (2025).“Beyond the Streetlight:Economic Measurement in the Division of Research and Statistics at the Federal Reserve,”Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2025-019. Washington: Board of Governors of theFederal Reserve System, https://doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2025.019. NOTE: Staff working papers in the Finance and Economics Discussion Series (FEDS) are preliminarymaterials circulated to stimulate discussion and critical comment.The analysis and conclusions set forthare those of the authors and do not indicate concurrence by other members of the research staff or theBoard of Governors. References in publications to the Finance and Economics Discussion Series (other thanacknowledgement) should be cleared with the author(s) to protect the tentative character of these papers. BeyondtheStreetlight:EconomicMeasurementintheDivisionofResearchandStatisticsattheFederalReserve* CarolCorrado,formerlyoftheDivisionofResearchandStatistics**ArthurKennickell,formerlyoftheDivisionofResearchandStatistics***TomazCajner,DivisionofResearchandStatistics Thisversion:December27,2024 Abstract Thispaperwaswrittenfortheacademicconferenceheldincelebrationofthe100thanniversaryoftheDivisionofResearchandStatistics(R&S)oftheFederalReserveBoard.TheworkoftheFederalReserveturnsstronglyonempiricaleffortstounderstandthestructureandstateoftheeconomy,andR&ScanbethoughtofasoperatingalargefactoryfordiscoveringanddevelopingdataandanalyticalmethodstoprovideevidencerelevanttothemissionoftheBoard.Thispaper,assignaledbyitstitle,illustrateshowthemeasurementresearchcomponentoftheR&SfactoryoftenlooksfarbeyondcurrentconventionstomeettheneedsoftheBoard—andhasdonesosinceitsearliestdays.ItwouldtakeafarlongerpapertoprovideacompletehistoryandevolutionofmeasurementactivitiesinR&S;here,weprovideanindicativereviewfocusingonselectedareasfromwhich,webelieve,itiseasytoconcludethatR&Shasbeen—andlikelywillcontinuetobe—animportantinnovatorineconomicmeasurement. Keywords:Datacollectionmethodsandestimationstrategies;Businesscycles,productivity,andpricemeasurement;Financialaccountsandfinancialdata;theSurveyofConsumerFinances;Blendeddata. *ThispaperwaspreparedfortheR&SCentennialConference,November8,2023.TheauthorsthankDaveByrne,whosecontributionsareclosetothatofco-author,andAriGelbard,whoprovidedresearchassistance.TheauthorsaregratefulforhelpfulcommentsfromtheConferencediscussantsforthispaper,ChristopherCarrollandDanielSichel.**SeniorPolicyScholar,CenterforBusinessandPublicPolicy,McDonoughSchoolofBusiness,GeorgetownUniversity(carol.corrado@georgetown.edu)***AffiliatedScholar,StoneCenter,CityUniversityofNewYorkGraduateCenter(arthur.kennickell@gmail.com) Introduction Incommemorationofthe100thanniversaryofthemergeroftheDivisionofAnalysisandResearchwiththeOfficeoftheStatisticianin1923tocreatetheDivisionofResearchandStatistics(R&S)oftheFederalReserveBoard,thepaperprovidesanoverviewandsomeinsightsintothesubsequenthistoryandroleofeconomicmeasurementinthedivision. Inlargepart,R&SoperatesasalargefactoryforproducinginformationrelevanttoitsmissionofsupportingtheBoardthroughanalysisoftheeconomyandtheeffectsofpolicydecisions.Asmall,butimportant,partofthatinformationproductioninvolvesthecreationofprimarydataviasurveydatacollectionasinthecaseoftheSurveyofConsumerFinances.Amuchlargerpartinvolvesusesofawidevarietyofsecondarydatasources,sometimesblendedwithothersources.Somesuchsecondaryusesfeedintothecreationofhigher-levelpublishedstatisticalseries,suchastheFinancialAccountsoftheUnitedStatesortheIndustrialProduction(IP)andCapacityUtilizationsystem,ortothecreationofroutinelyusedindicatorssuchashouseholddebtburdens.Inmanyothercases,theinformationaloutputistheresultofanexerciseinmodelingorestimationforinternaluse,suchaspotentialoutput;othersaresharedwiththepublicviaFEDSNotes,suchasarecentlydevelopedindexofcommoninflationexpectations.1Theseestimatesservetoclarifythecurrentstateofsomeaspectsoftheeconomyortotesttheappropriatenessofaparticularviewofeconomicstructure.Inacomplexdataecosystemsuchasthis,itisdifficultatbesttodefineneatlywhatconstitutes“measurement,”thesubjectofthispaper.Itwouldnotbepossibleinthescopeofthispapertoaddresseveryrelevantangle.Instead,belowwesketchaframeworkofinformationuseanddiscusssomeofthekeyrelatedelementsofmeasurement. Fromtheperspectiveofthepresent,threemutuallysupportingfactorsaremoststrikingabouttheoverallhistoryofmeasurementinR&S.First,thevarietiesandsourcesofdatahaveexpandedenormouslyovertime.Atonetime,simplyhavingreliablenationalincomeaggregatesandmoneysupplydatarepresentedprogress.Now,thegrowingrangeofrelevantdata—commercialdata,sensordata,administrativedata,anddataofothersortsfrommultiple governmentagencies—canseemalmost