老龄化社会：迎接挑战，释放机遇

Aged Society:Embracing Challenges andUnlocking Opportunities From an ‘aging’ to an ‘aged’ society: Thailand isgetting old before it gets rich4 Challenges faced by the elderly in Thailand6 Golden opportunities in the silver economy20 Krungsri Research view: The aged society is botha policy problem to be pondered and a businessopportunity to be pursued28 References31 Unlessexplicitlystatedotherwise,thispublicationandallmaterialthereinisunder the copyright ofKrungsriResearch. As such, the reuse, reproduction, oralteration of this text or any part thereof is absolutely prohibited without priorwrittenconsent.Thisreportdrawsonawiderangeofwell-establishedandtrustworthysources,butKrungsriResearchcanmakenoguaranteeoftheabsolute veracity of the material cited. Moreover,KrungsriResearch will not beheld responsible for any losses that may occur either directly or indirectly fromany use towhich this reportorthe datacontained therein maybe put.Theinformation,opinions,andjudgementsexpressedinthisreportarethoseofKrungsriResearch, but this publication does not necessarily reflect the opinionsof Bank ofAyudhyaPublic Company Limited or of any other companies withinthe same commercial group. This report is an accurate reflection of the thinkingand opinions ofKrungsriResearch as of the day of publication, but we reservethe right to change those opinions without prior notice. For research subscription, contactkrungsri.research@krungsri.com Executive summary As of 2023, more than 20% of the Thai population was aged 60 or over, thus qualifying the country as an‘aged society’. Unfortunately, the elderly face a wide range of challenges, in particular: (i) insecure andinsufficient income as a result of not working or doing so but receiving insufficient wages, or a lack ofsavings or a pension; and (ii)increased outgoings due to higher medical, housing and care costs. Theimpacts of these problems are being felt by individuals, families, and society at large, but more positively,the aged society will also open up new opportunities for businesses in areas as diverse as healthcare, realestate, food, lifestyles, electronics and digital technologies, and finance. Players in these industries that areable to respond to changing demographic conditions and that can bring new and appropriate products andservices to market will therefore be able both to expand their businesses and to alleviate many of theproblems currently impacting Thai seniors. Prapan Leenoi Analystprapan.leenoi@krungsri.com+662296 6235 From an ‘aging’ to an ‘aged’ society:Thailand is getting old before it gets rich It has long been observed that Thailand is aging rapidly, and as long ago as 2005, Thailand became an ‘agingsociety’1/, that is, at least 10% of the population was 60 or older. However,in 2023, Thailand reached anotherdemographic milestone when the share of over-60s reached 20% of the population, or13.2million people,qualifying it as an ‘aged society’2/. It therefore took less than 20 years for the share of the elderly in thepopulation to double and for the country to go from an aging to an aged society, a rate that is significantly fasterthan that recorded in many other countries, including Singapore and China(25years), the United Kingdom(45years), and the United States(69years)3/. Moreover,in 2023, 13.6% of the Thai population was65or over, andthe United Nations4/expected this proportion to grow to more than20%by 2029, which would thenqualifyThailand as a super-aged society. This is the most aged of the UN’s demographic categories, and once Thailandreaches this stage, it will join countries including Japan, Germany, Italy, and France, but while these are allwealthy developed economies and that are thus ‘old but rich’, Thailand is at risk of becoming ‘old before it isrich’. A number of demographic indicators point to Thailand’s changing circumstances. The country’s median age5/iscurrently 41, significantly older than the ASEAN average of 296/, and although it dipped slightly during theCOVID-19 pandemic, life expectancy is steadily tracking upwards and as of 2021, this stood at 78.7. In the sameyear, deaths also outnumbered births for the first time since records began. The rising share of the populationclassed as elderly, lengthening life expectancy, and the falling birth rate are all steadily adding to the challengesfaced by the country, though most evident among these at present is theshrinking workforceand the fallinglabor force participationrate, which declined to 68.7%in 20237/, down from more than 70% a decade earlier.This is thenincreasing the old-age dependency ratio8/and soin 2021, every 100working-age Thais had tosupport 21over-60s, up from 13 in 2015(Figure2), and this ratio will continue to rise as time goes by. Clearly,the aging of Thai society has the potential to place very considerable demands on the country, andbalancing the need to grow the economy with a declining workforce while still providing for the needs of theelderly will be