二手电动汽车：供应和转售价值

Used Electric Vehicles:Supply and Resale Value ContentContent Executive summary3 Overseas secondhand EV markets4 The Thai market for used EVs8 Forecast sales of used BEVs, 2025-202814 Krungsri Research view: Determining thedomestic resale value of secondhand BEVs16 References17 Unlessexplicitlystatedotherwise,thispublicationandallmaterialthereinisunder the copyright ofKrungsriResearch. As such, the reuse, reproduction, oralteration of this text or any part thereof is absolutely prohibited without priorwrittenconsent.Thisreportdrawsonawiderangeofwell-establishedandtrustworthysources,butKrungsriResearchcanmakenoguaranteeoftheabsolute veracity of the material cited. Moreover,KrungsriResearch will not beheld responsible for any losses that may occur either directly or indirectly fromany use towhich this reportorthe datacontained therein maybe put.Theinformation,opinions,andjudgementsexpressedinthisreportarethoseofKrungsriResearch, but this publication does not necessarily reflect the opinionsof Bank ofAyudhyaPublic Company Limited or of any other companies withinthe same commercial group. This report is an accurate reflection of the thinkingand opinions ofKrungsriResearch as of the day of publication, but we reservethe right to change those opinions without prior notice. For research subscription, contactkrungsri.research@krungsri.com Executive summary Marketsforusedelectricvehiclesaredevelopingrapidlyaroundtheworld,particularlyinChina,theUS,andEurope,withsalesgrowingbyover30%annually.Thisgrowthisfueledbygreenenergypoliciesinmanycountriesthatsubsidizepurchases,makingpricesmoreaccessible.However,thedepreciationofusedEVs,drivenbyrapidtechnologicaladvancementsandpricecompetitioninthenewEVmarket,isasignificantfactorinfluencingbuyerdecisions.InThailand,thegrowthofthenewelectricvehiclemarketunderEV3.0andEV3.5measureshasledtotheemergenceofusedEVsinthemarket.However,themarketremainssmallandprimarilyfocusedonpremiumsegments.TheresalevalueofusedEVsinThailanddeclinesfasterthantheglobalaverageduetothemarket'stransitionalphaseandintensepricecompetitioninthenewcarmarket,drivenbyongoingadvancementsinbatterytechnology.DataanalyzedinthispaperalsoshowthatUSandEuropeanEVsaremoretypicallylocatedatthepremiumendofthemarket,andsothesehaveahigherresalevaluethansmallermoremass-marketChinesemodels,whilewithinthedomesticmarket,pricesareheavilyinfluencedbymileage,age,typeandmanufacturer.RegistrationsofusedEVsareexpectedtogrowbyanaverageof825vehiclesannuallyover2025-2027,accountingfor0.8%ofnewEVregistrations.ThemajorityofusedEVsenteringthemarketwillbe4-5yearsold,mostofwhichwillbeEVsoriginallysoldthroughtheEV3.0schemeover2022and2023. Supawat Choksawatpaisan Analystsupawat.choksawatpaisan@krungsri.com+662296 4755 Overseas secondhand EV markets Over the last few years, global auto markets have been disrupted by the sharp uptick in interest in electricvehicles as consumers have both been attracted to this new technology and taken on board deepeningconcerns with sustainability and the environment. However, this market is still developing and the recentsurge in sales of new EVs is in turn generating a secondary market for used vehicles. This is thus promptingboth consumers and businesses in related parts of the industry toask‘How fast will EV resale valuesdepreciate?’ and ‘What will the future supply of secondhand EVs look like?’ The answers to thesequestions will help to influence purchasing decisions for both new and used EVs, insurance premiums, andloan approvals for used EVs, as well as capital management in the business sector for investment in thegrowing used electric vehicle market. This paper aims to shed light on possible answers to these questions by examining markets for used EVsoverseas, examining the factors that determine prices within the Thai secondhand EV market, andforecasting the outlook of the second-hand electric car market. The development of secondhand EV markets overseas The 2015 Paris Agreement, which was signed by parties to the United Nations Framework Convention onClimate Change, sets a formal target of limiting increases in global temperatures across the 21st century tono more than 2 degrees Celsius relative to pre-industrial levels. Following this, countries have set theirown plans to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, aiming for net zero CO2emissions in the future. One of thekey energy policies is the transition to green energy in the transportation sectorthrough the use ofElectricVehicles (EVs), particularly Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs). As a result of this, global registrations of EVshave surged in recent years, and in 2023, these jumped another 35.0% to 14 million vehicles. Thesetrendlines are expected to extend into the future, and so in a 2024 paper, the IEA stated that guided bythe twin engines of favorable government policy and ongoing technological progress, by 2030, 40% of allvehicle sales (or 45 million vehicles) are expected to be chargeable EVs1/, rising to 50% (or 65 millionvehicles