行业展望（2023年1月）

INDUSTRYHORIZON January 2023 KeyenvironmentsinfluencingtheoutlookofThailand’sindustry Macroenvironment Industry outlook Industrialenvironment Globalvaluechainsareshorteningascountriesaremovingtoincreasetheirself-relianceandtoboosttheircapacityfordomestictechnologicalinnovation TheCOVID-19pandemicandintensifyinggeopoliticaltensionse.g.;Ukraine-Russiawar,theUS-ChinaconflictoverTaiwan,havecausedmanydevelopedeconomiestotrytoincreasethedomesticproductionoftechnology-intensiveintermediategoodstoreplaceimports.Asaresult,globalvaluechainisexpectedtoshortenevenfurther. Countrieswillincreasetheirself-reliancetodevelopnewtechnologyinupstreamindustries,especiallyinkeystrategicindustriessuchaschipsandelectronicsBarrierstotradewillcontinuetobetightenedbythemajoreconomicpowers,especiallynon-tariffbarriers(NTBs). . Highlypolarizedworldeconomyisinturnforcingcountriestobecomemorereliantontheintra-regionalsourcingofinputs,shorteningtheGVCsespeciallyforproductsthatdependonmid-andhigh-techmanufacturingprocesses.Thisincludeselectroniccomponents,computers,andautoindustries. Moderntechnologytransformingindustrytowardsgrowthsustainability Thewaveofthedigitalrevolutionisnowcarryingthewholeworldalong,isnotjustbuildingaddedvalueacrosstheeconomy,butitisalsohelpingtoincreasethesustainabilityofeconomicgrowthandaddingtothesecurityofsupplychains. TheInternetofThings(IoT);IoTwillhave(1)agreaterroletoplayingatheringdatafromsensorsplacedineverydaygadgetsandsmartfactorymachinesand(2)agrowingnumberofusesinvolvingahigherprocessingspeedmachinelearningthroughsensorsystem. Robotics;Robotsareabletocarryoutprecisionworkandincreaseworksafetyinmanufacturingandservicessectors.Whilemostindustrialapplicationsareof“cobots”,itisestimatedtheglobalroboticsindustrialmarketisestimatedtogrow10%over2020-2028.5G;Globally,5Gisrapidlyusedinhelpingwiththeremotecontrolofdronesandrobotswhilethedevelopmentof5GinfrastructureisbeingpushbytheThaigovernmenttosupportsystemsandmetaverseplatforms.ArtificialIntelligence(AI);AIaredeployedinawiderangeofindustriesincludingtheautoandelectronicsindustriesinreducingwaste,thepharmaceuticalindustryintrackingtheinfections,andtherealestateindustryindesigningbuildings.Drones;Dronesarereducingcompanies’dependencyonlaborandcuttingthetimetakentosurveyland,especiallyinagriculturalandconstructionsite. that cloudAI spreadof ESGgoalswillhelpcompaniesgrowsustainably,thoughthismayalsoputpressureonsomeheavyindustries ESGisnowbeingusedasatooltostrategicallymanagerisk,toassurepartnersandstakeholdersofthesecurityofthecorebusiness,andtoguaranteesafelong-termreturnstoinvestors.Withinthis,the‘environment’inESGisboththemosturgentandthathasthemostimpactonbusinesses.Thosecarbon-intensiveheavyindustriesmaybeadverselyaffectedbythistrend,andsobusinessesdealingwithcement,metals(steelandaluminum),andchemicalfertilizerswillneedtoactrapidlytooverhaultheiroperations,astheyaresubjectedtocarbontaxbytheEU(CarbonBorderAdjustmentMechanism:CBAM). RegulatorychangesaffectingThaiindustry Importantsectorsgenerallyshowimprovingprospect Construction: Public construction growing further on a progress of megaprojects investment Automobile:Demand increasing on economic recovery in domestic market, while exportscontinuingly expanding Public investment on EEC-related projects that fall under phase 2 of the Action Plan on EECInfrastructure and Public Utilities (2023-2027) will be accelerated. Domestic market will see a strong demand for commercial vehicles and BEVsExports will be boosted by the move of Japanese companies’ production base to Thailand forexport especially to ASEAN. Cassava: Demand rising from China mostly for use in alcohol, ethanol, and animal feedproduction Hospital: Enjoy a steady growth from a return of foreign patients and healthcare concerns Cassava: Demand improves from downstream industries both in Thailand and abroad.Demand from China will strengthen for cassava chip, while pellets and native and modifiedstarch are helped by downstream industries. Strengthening demand will come from steadily aging society and foreign patients that needmore complex treatmentsLarge players continue to expand branches and partnership for providing services to a widerage of patients. Sugar and Molasses: Output increasing from expected favorable climate Outputs will rise from the extension of La Niña conditions, ongoing government and refineriessupport, and the incentive provided by high prices.Recovery in downstream industries will help both domestic and export markets. Industrial Estate: Demand increasing on improved confidence and infrastructure spendingespecially in EEC Eastern region: Demand is anticipated to strengthen rapidly as infrastructure spending ofphase 2 EEC development plan risesCentral region: The area’s communications links will continue to support industrial space inthis region. Sales of high-capacity HDDs will continue to rise, given growing demand for big data-relateduses in cloud computing and data center a