经济月报（2022年2月）

Global:Inadilemmaoverinflationandgrowth China Economy continues to slow down as zero-COVID policy ishurting economic activitiesImproving investment and robust exports would prevent asharp slowdownExpect more accommodative policies, including measures tohelp developers with liquidity, to reduce financial risks andstimulate domestic spending EuropeEconomy hopes for a rebound by mid -year asservices sector strugglesMajor economic growth engines-return oftourism and investment confidenceBuoyant economic growth and additionalinflation risk from Russia tensions couldpressure the ECB to hike rates this year Japan US Services sector has been hurt byOmicron, but resilient manufacturingactivity could maintain growthmomentum driven by restockingBOJ is slowly exiting its crisis stimulusprograms, but still trails majoreconomies; unlikely to raise policy ratesuntil 2023 New outbreaks hurt some activities butthe impact will be reversed by end of 1QTemporary impact to be cushioned byrestocking and spending on consumerservicesMarch rate hike is a done deal, possiblyfive hikes this year; also crucial tosupport economic growth and stability infinancial markets IMFtrimmed2022globalgrowthforecastbecauseofrisingcaseloadsandreimpositionofrestrictions,butraisedinflationoutlookduetohigherenergypricesandsupplydisruption AdvancedEconomiesEmerging Market andDeveloping Economies JanuaryglobalPMIdatareflectservicessectorhasbeenhitbutcouldimprovewitheasingrestrictions;manufacturingremainsresilient;risingwagewouldpromptpolicytightening FollowinghigherdailyCovid-19casesandtightercontainmentmeasures,globaleconomicgrowthhadsloweddownwithJanuaryGlobalServicesBusinessActivityIndexfallingtoan18-monthlow.Buttheoutlookremainspositivewithcompaniesforecasting(onaverage)activitywouldimproveoneyearfromnow.Inmanufacturing,USandChinaPMIdatashowedweakergrowthbutfutureoutputPMIhasimproved,suggestingtherecentweaknessistemporary.Inaddition,EuroareaandJapan’sManufacturingPMIhadimprovedinJanuary,suggestingresilienceagainsttheOmicronwave.Economicactivityshouldimproveascountrieseaserestrictionsfollowingfewerfatalitiesandhighervaccinationrates.Economicrecoverycoupledwithrisingwagesinseveraladvancedcountriesarepromptingtheirpolicymakerstotightenmonetarypoliciestocurbinflationarypressures. activitiesbuttheimpactwillbereversedbyendof1Q ThesurgeinOmicroncasessincelate2021suggeststherewerelimitedoutdooractivitiesinearly-January.ThelatestoutbreaksrevealatemporaryimpactontheUSeconomy,inbothmanufacturingandservicessectors.PMIdataforthosesectorsedgeddowninJanuary,reflectingtheeffectsoftemporaryclosureoffactoriesandstores.Theservicessectorsawalargerpullbackinactivities.Thelatestoutbreakshavehurtconsumerconfidenceinthefirstmonthof2022andsmallbusinesssentimenthasslidtoan11-monthlow.However,sub-indicesforManufacturingPMIshowedimprovementsinsupplydeliverytimeandemploymentwhileallservicessub-indicescontinuedtoimprove.Thelatestoutbreakisunlikelytorestrainconsumptionforlong.Thenumberofseateddinershavepicked-upsignificantlysincemid-January,suggestingpeopleareadaptingtopandemicconditionsandrestrictions.ThenumberofairlinepassengershavedroppedsincethebeginningofthisyearfollowingbusytravelsduringChristmas&NewYear,butishigherthaninthesameperiodlastyear.Inaddition,thenumberofCovid-19patientsarefallingasquicklyastheyhadrisen,incontrasttorisingboostershotsadministered.Lookingahead,theimprovingCovid-19situationwillliftconfidenceandactivitybacktoasteadygrowthpathinlate1Q. restockingandspendingonconsumerservices 4Q21GDPgrowthexceededmarketexpectationsamidrisingOmicroncases,ledbyprivateconsumptionandinventories.Weexpectdemand-drivengrowthtocontributetorisinginventories,investmentandpersonalspending.Manufacturinginventorygrowthhashitamulti-yearhighasfirmsrestockedmaterialstoavoidsupplyconstraintsandrespondtosoliddemand.Retailinventoryhasrisenfrompandemic-low,indicatingbusinessesarepreparingformoresales.Plus,thelowinventory-to-salesratioaffirmsbetterbusinessperformanceasrisingdemandoutpacesupplygrowthBusinessesalsoreportedhighercapitalexpendituresoverthenextsixmonths,whichcouldsupportbrighterinvestmentprospectsin2H22.Personalincomegrowthwoulddeceleratein2022duetotheexpiryofchildtaxcreditbutadjustmentstosocialsecurityclaimscouldhelptoeasetheburdenofhouseholdexpenseslaterthisyear.Furthermore,consumerspendingonserviceswillcontinuetoriseastheConsumerServicesSpendingIndexhasreturnedtopre-crisislevel.Allthesedevelopmentswouldhelptocushiontheoutbreakimpactsanddriveeconomicgrowth. Marchratehikeisadonedeal,possiblyfivehikesthisyear;alsocrucialtosupporteconomicgrowthandstabilityinfinancialmarkets TheFedhasrampeduptaperingsincelate4Q21andopenedthedoortohikerates.Weprojectfiveratehikesthisyeargivenmorepersistentinflation,rapidly-risingwages,andasolidjobmarket.TheFedmightkick-offtheratehikecyclewitha25bpshikeratherthan50bpsinMarchtopreventfinancialfearsoverarapidliquiditycontraction,followedbyoneeachinMay,July,SeptemberandDecember.Thelabormarketremainsstrongdespitethelatestout