经济月报（2022年4月）

MONTHLYECONOMICBULLETIN April 2022 Global: Supply disruption, inflation threat, and policy diversion China Shocks from extended lockdowns following the biggestoutbreak since 2020 will drag economic growth in 1H22.Signs of weakening external demand triggered by Ukrainecrisis, but inflationary pressure would be manageable.Escalating risks to economy and financial market imply moreaccommodative monetary policy stance. EuropeEurozone recovery will be delayed by war, supply chain disruptions, and weakerspending power.Mitigation policies could avoid an energyshock, but high inflation coupled with weakergrowth would be a problem for ECB.BOE will continue to tackle inflation by hikingrates in May, but recession fears could limitthe magnitude of hikes in 2H22. US Japan Stronger economy could prevent a sharpslowdown, but Ukraine war has hurtsentiment and will have visible impactsoon.Higher prices driven by renewed supplyshortages would reduce demand in 2022.Healthy labor market and persistentinflation suggest a 50-bp rate hike in Mayand possibly at June meeting. Expect a volatile recovery with severaldownside risks, including risk to globaltrade, supply disruption, and earningsDespite expecting inflation to exceed2% this year, the BOJ is unlikely totighten monetary policy, will maintainaccommodative stance GlobalmanufacturingactivitydeceleratedinMarch;downsidebiastogrowthoutlookgivenweakerfutureoutput,renewedsupplydisruptions,andrisingpricepressure Forthefirsttimein2years,thepandemichasnotbeencitedasthetoprisktoglobalgrowth;geopoliticalconflictovershadowsallotherrisks;sentimentiswaning US:Strongereconomycouldpreventasharpslowdown,butUkrainewarhashurtsentimentandwillhavevisibleimpactsoon ManufacturingsectoractivitydeceleratedinMarchwhileServicessectorexpandedstrongerthanconsensusexpectations.TheRussia-Ukrainewarreducednewordersandworsenedsupplybottle-necksbutrisingemploymentpreventedacontractioninthePMI.Thefirmdataconfirmsasolidperformanceascorporateprofitsrosebydouble-digitpercentagein4Q21,inlinewithimprovingrealGDP.Theuptickingoodsshipmentinearly2022alsosupportstrongerinvestmentahead.Weexpectprofitstodeceleratethisyearbutremainfavorable.Onprivateconsumption,highfrequencydatahasyettoshowsignificantimpactfromrisingfuelpricesonshopping,travelanddiningout.And,decliningCovid-19casesisencouragingmoreoutdooractivities.Currentconsumptionandbusinessperformancecouldpreventasharpeconomicslowdownandcalmfearsofarecessioninthisyear.However,theUkrainewarimpactswouldhavevisibleimpactinthecomingmonths.TheConsumerConfidenceIndexfellinMarch,andespecially,expectationsforthenext6monthsisatthelowestsince2013.Confidencewouldshowalargerdropbymid-year.Mountingconcernsoverhouseholdfinancialscouldcontributetoslowerspendinggrowthin2022. supplyshortageswouldreducedemandin2022 SupplyproblemshadstartedtoeaseearlythisyearbuttherewerebottlenecksagainfollowingtheUkraineinvasionandCovid-19lockdowninShanghaiandShenzhen.Thesesuggesttheeconomywouldfaceslowergrowthandhigherinflation.OilpricesjumpedinthebeginningofAprilafterreportsofciviliandeathsnearKyivtriggerednewsanctionsfromtheWest.TheUShasannouncedmoresanctionsagainstindividualsandbannednewinvestmentfromRussia,whichhaveelevateduncertainties.TheUSalsoplanstoreleaseoilfromstrategicreserves,at1millionbarrelsperday,tocurbrisingfuelpricesacrossthecountry.However,Americanswillhavetodealwithrisingenergyandfoodcosts.FoodPriceIndexhitrecord-highinMarchandcouldrisefurtherasUkraine’sagriculturalindustryhasbeendestroyed.Plus,lockdownmeasuresinChinacouldalsopressureglobalsupplychainsthroughtransportationlogjamsandhigherUSimportpricesduetoitsmajortradepartnerstatus.WeestimateUShouseholdswouldpayUSD5,240inflationtaxthisyear,andthepoorestgroupwouldbetheworsthit.However,allhouseholdswillhavetofacerisingpricesandhighercostofliving,implyingsofterconsumerdemandtherestoftheyear. Healthylabormarketandpersistentinflationsuggesta50-bpratehikeinMayandpossiblyatJunemeeting USlabormarketadded1.7millionjobsin1Q22,indicatingthestrongreturnofworkers.Jobopeningstounemploymentratioisatarecordhighof1.8,reflectingatightlabormarket.Althoughthiscouldpushupnominalwageandinflation,itwouldbeasmallerproblemthandecliningrealwage.Pricesareacceleratingacrosstheboardasinflationisalsorisingintheservicessector,reflectingdemand-pullinflation.ThiscouldprompttheFedtoraiseratesaggressivelytoallowdemandtocatchupwithsupplyandreduceinflation.TheFed’sMarchmeetingminutesrevealedtheymightlaunchabalancesheetreductionprograminMayatUSD95billionamonth.Thegovernorsalsosignaledtheywerepreparedtohikeratesateverymeetingthisyear.Weexpectahalf-pointhikeinMayandseehigherprobabilityofa50bpshikeinJunetocombatthehottestinflationrateinfourdecades.Interestratescouldhit2.0-2.5%byyear-end.Thehawkishtonehastriggeredsellinginshort-termbondsandan‘invertedyieldcurve’,leadingtorecessionfearsHistoricaldatadoesnotshowstrongcorrelationbetweenaninvertedyield-curveandrecession,whichsuggestsminimalriskofarecessionwithinthenext12months.Sometimes,thestockm