经济月报（2024年4月）

MONTHLYECONOMICBULLETIN April 2024 Global: Marginal and Cautious Improvement China Economy reveals glimpses of sunshine, but the realestate sector continues to cast shadows, posingfurther risks of spillover into the financial sector. EuropeLikely to see a stagnant economy in 1H24 amid still-soft inflation. Thissuggests the ECB might cut interestrates at June meeting. JapanDespite ending negative interest US -rate policy, BOJ should keep anaccommodative stance as pricepressures are not strong enoughto require aggressive rate hikes. Firmer-than-expected growth andinflation support Fed’s caution inintroducing rate cuts.But signs of a slowing economy andeasing wage growth suggest theymight start policy easing this year. IMFinchedup2024globalgrowthforecastto3.2%,stillbelowhistoricalaverage,whilewarningacautiousoutlookamidinflationconcernandgeopoliticalrisk TheIMFhasslightlyrevisedup2024globaleconomicgrowthprojectionby0.1percentagepointto3.2%,reflectingupgradesfortheUSandsomelargeemergingmarkets.Thelatest2024globalgrowthforecastisthesamepaceasin2023butremainsbelowthehistorical(2000-2019)annualaverageof3.8%,owingtonear-termfactors,suchasstill-highborrowingcostsandwithdrawaloffiscalsupport,andlonger-termeffectsfromtheCovid-19pandemicandRussia’sinvasionofUkraine;weakgrowthinproductivity;andincreasinggeoeconomicfragmentation.Inaddition,theIMF’slatestforecastofglobalgrowthfiveyearsfromnow–at3.1%--isatitslowestindecades.Downsideriskscouldstemfromrisinggeopoliticaltensions,highinterestrates,China’stroubledpropertysector,highgovernmentdebtandintensifyinggeoeconomicfragmentation. Recently,thedroneattacksbyIranonIsraelhaveincreasedgeopoliticaltension.ThestrikehavebeeninterpretedascalibratedbyIrantoavoidasubstantialescalationandtheriskthattheGulfstatesgetdraggedintoanyconflictinvolvingIranhasdiminishedsignificantlyoverthepastfiveyears. However,risinggeopoliticaltensionremainsakeyriskfortheworldeconomy.Thereisfearthatthismightescalateintoabroaderregionalconflictandhaveasignificantimpactonenergymarkets.Ariseinoilpricescouldcomplicatecentralbanks’effortstotameinflationriskandenergymarketswouldstillbethekeytransmissionmechanismfromescalatingtensionstotherestoftheglobaleconomy. Globalmanufacturingandservicesactivitiestopickupinthenearteamsupportedbyfavorablesupplyconditionsandhigherrealincome;disinflationtrendslowsdown US:Firmer-than-expectedgrowthandinflationkeepsFedcautiousinintroducingratecuts,butaslowereconomyandeasingwagegrowthsuggestpolicyeasingthisyear KrungsriResearch’sview StronglabormarketandconcernsoverstickyinflationreducechanceofaJuneratecut.Theeconomyadded303kjobsinMarch,betterthan200kmarketexpectation.Unemploymentratefellto3.8%from3.9%inFebruary.However,thestrengthismainlysupportedbyonlytwosectors—privateeducation&healthcareandleisure&hospitality.Surgingimmigrationisamajorboostinthelabormarket.Lingeringinflationconcerns.Inflationroseto3.5%YoYinMarchfrom3.2%inFebruary,drivenbyrisingcostsforshelterandgasoline,whichcontributedoverhalfthemonthlyincreaseintheindex.ProducerPriceIndexrose2.1%,thebiggestgainsinceApril2023. However,aslowingeconomyanddisinflationtrendstillsupportratecutsin2H24. Althoughmanufacturingactivity(11%ofGDP)reversedtoexpandinMarch,theservicessector(over70%ofGDP)signaledslowinggrowthforthesecondconsecutivemonth.Householdsavings-to-incomeratiohasfallenbelowpre-pandemiclevel.Strongjobgrowthwassupportedbyasurgeinimmigration,sothatisunlikelytopushupwagesandinflation.Mostmeasuresoflabormarketslackarereturningtopre-pandemiclevelswithquitratefallingbelowpre-pandemiclevel,suggestingwagegrowthcouldslowdown.Averagehourlyearningsgrewbyonly4.1%YoYinMarch,thesmallestgainsinceJune2021.Themeasureofpricepaidbyservicesbusinessesplungedtoa4-yearlowinMarch.Slowerservicesactivity,fallinghouseholdsavings,andeasingwagegrowthareopeningthedoorfortheFedtocutratesin2H24.WeexpectFedFundsratetofallto4.25-4.50%byend-2024,whichstillimpliesarestrictivemonetarypolicy,duetopositiverealinterestrates. Eurozone:Economycouldstagnatein1H24amidsofterinflation,suggestingtheECBmightcutinterestratesatJunemeeting KrungsriResearch’sview LatestEurozoneeconomicindicatorsarepointingtoatechnicalrecovery:(i)ZEWIndicatorofEconomicSentimentmarkedthehighestlevelsinceFebruary2022;(ii)ServicesPMIhasimprovedfor2months;and(iii)still-tightlabormarketconditionswithunemploymentrateatarecordlowof6.5%.ThesewillhelptheEurozonetooffsetmostoftheheadwindsfromhigherinterestratesandreduceriskofarecessionthisyear. However,Eurozoneeconomyisunlikelytoseeameaningfulrecoveryin1H24despitesofteninginflation,favorablesupplychainconditions,andatechnicalreboundinglobalexportandmanufacturingactivitiesrecently.Thisisbecauseofthefollowing:(i)ManufacturingPMIhasbeenincontractionzoneforthelast19months;(ii)continuedweakdemandforcreditfrombothhouseholdsandNFCs*becauseofdragfromrecentmonetarypolicytighteningamidlowindustrialcapacityutilization;(iii)slowdowninhousingmarketwouldcapconstructionspendinglaterintheyear;(iv)still-lowconsumerconfiden