US Tariffs: Reciprocal tariffs heighten stagflation and recession risks. Despite de-escalating trade tensions, economic slowdown appears inevitable, with three rate cuts expected this year.
China: Additional economic support needed as the economy struggles internally while facing trade wars. GDP growth forecast lowered due to economic pressure and earthquake impact.
Europe: Fiscal stimulus impact expected to become more evident next year. Trade war risks remain a key drag on growth, prompting a rate cut in April.
Japan: Consumption suppressed by high inflation. Trade policy uncertainty adds to recovery path uncertainty. BOJ in no rush to raise policy rate.
Thailand: Facing economic strain from US tariffs and earthquake. Export growth at risk, with potential for long-term losses in key sectors.
Key Points by Region
US: Reciprocal tariffs increase stagflation and recession risks. Economic slowdown expected, with three rate cuts forecast.
China: Additional economic support needed. Trade war impact expected to be limited in the long run.
Europe: Fiscal stimulus to support growth, but economic outlook remains sluggish. ECB to cut rates in response to trade tensions.
Japan: Consumption and trade policy uncertainty hinder recovery. BOJ to delay next policy rate hike.
Thailand: Export growth at risk, with potential for long-term losses in key sectors. Tourism recovery slow, with earthquake and US tariffs adding to challenges.
