市场展望——2024年6月6日

Market Perspectives June 6, 2024 Chicago Board of Trade Market News ............................................................................................ 3Outlook...................................................................................................................................................... 4CBOT July 2024 Corn Futures.......................................................................................................... 5Current Market Values.............................................................................................................................. 5U.S. Weather/Crop Progress........................................................................................................... 6Highlights: ................................................................................................................................................. 6Outlook: .................................................................................................................................................... 7FOB.................................................................................................................................................. 9Distiller’s Dried Grains with Solubles (DDGS) ............................................................................... 10DDGS Comments..................................................................................................................................... 10Ocean Freight Markets and Spreads............................................................................................. 11Ocean Freight Comments ....................................................................................................................... 11U.S. Export Statistics ..................................................................................................................... 13Corn......................................................................................................................................................... 14Barley ...................................................................................................................................................... 14Sorghum .................................................................................................................................................. 14 Chicago Board of Trade Market News Outlook Corn futures are at a critical point if the uptrend that has been developing since early March is to remainintact. Support currently rests around $4.40 basis for the July contract. Failure to hold this level wouldlikely trigger a resumption of the downtrend that began nearly a year ago. Fears that a significantportion of the U.S. corn crop would not get planted have abated, although there is likely to be someyield loss compared to trendline yield due to the portion that was or will be planted after June 20th. Thereplenishment of soil moisture conditions that were severely below normal when planting began in Aprilcombined with relatively mild weather as the crop begins its early growth stages sets the stage for highcrop condition ratings, at least during the first part of June and turns thoughts to prospects of a largecrop being harvested this fall and a further buildup of ending stocks rather than a pull-down in endingstocks that was one of the main take-aways from the May WASDE report. Searing heat and ongoing dry weather are reducing estimates of Ukraine and Russian wheat productionwhile excessive rainfall is pushing the seeding of the spring wheat crop in Russia beyond the optimaldates in both northcentral and northeastern Russia. Besides the Black Sea drought conditions, weatherissues abound around the world. Mexico continues to be in the grips of the worst drought that countryhas seen in 50 years. Northern and Central China’s dryness is beginning to rise on the radar screens oftraders as more heat is developing in those growing regions. A lack of rainfall and relatively hightemperatures in the upper 80s, 90s and low 100s will cover about 60% of China’s winter wheat area andup to 25% of China’s cornbelt. And just after southern Brazil experienced record flooding, bothArgentina and Brazil are in a period of dryness with limited rain in the forecast to seed winter crops inArgentina. The only real bright spots for crops are the corn and soybean fields that are within a couplehours travel time by car of the Chicago traders. As they go out and about, they see a very good cropdeveloping and just read about the negatives happening elsewhere. U.S origin corn is becoming more competitive in world markets. Not only has the futures price declinedsignificantly over the past couple weeks, but Argentina’s cash corn market added premium this week.On a landed basis, U.S. origin corn is cheapest into Asia for summer delivery. A year ago, South Americanbasis was deeply negative, but now is much closer to “normal” and showing signs of inc