市场展望——2024年6月27日

Market Perspectives June 27, 2024 Chicago Board of Trade Market News ............................................................................................ 3Outlook...................................................................................................................................................... 4CBOT July 2024 Corn Futures.......................................................................................................... 5Current Market Values.............................................................................................................................. 5U.S. Weather/Crop Progress........................................................................................................... 6Highlights: ................................................................................................................................................. 6Outlook: .................................................................................................................................................... 7FOB.................................................................................................................................................. 8Distiller’s Dried Grains with Solubles (DDGS) ................................................................................. 9DDGS Comments....................................................................................................................................... 9Ocean Freight Markets and Spreads............................................................................................. 10Ocean Freight Comments ....................................................................................................................... 10U.S. Export Statistics ..................................................................................................................... 12Corn......................................................................................................................................................... 12Barley ...................................................................................................................................................... 12Sorghum .................................................................................................................................................. 12 Chicago Board of Trade Market News Outlook Considerable choppiness in the corn market this week but with a definite downward bias. From lastThursday to this Thursday, July corn futures dropped 26 cents per bushel (a 5.9% price decline); in onemonth July futures have dropped 56 cents per bushel (a 11.9% price decline); July futures declined 86cents per bushel in the past 6 months (a 17.2% price decline); and July futures have declined $1.72 perbushel since the peak in July 2023 (a 29.4% price decline). The corn futures market appears to be fullyembracing the notion that “rain makes grain” and that recent precipitation in the Cornbelt has beenmore than sufficient to take any weather risk premium out of the market. This downward push in corn futures prices is at odds with rising U.S. cash corn basis bids. Central Illinoiscash corn bids are now 16 cents over the July futures and Cedar Rapids, Iowa cash corn bids are 24 centsover the futures market and cash corn bids in Northwest Iowa are up to 28 cents over the July contract.To keep corn supplies flowing to end users like feed mills and ethanol plants that need corn every day ofthe year, cash basis bids are having to counteract the downward movement of the futures market. Looking forward, with the USDA grain stocks report and planted acreage reports set to be released onJune 28th, strengthening interior, Midwest cash basis bids, oversold technical conditions, and erraticworld weather conditions, one wonders when the market bears may bank profits and buyers of cornemerge to lock in corn that is “on sale” compared to prices of the past several years. “Rain makes grain” but there likely has been a loss of 2 to 3 percent of the Iowa corn crop due to fieldflooding, probably 3 to 5 percent of the Minnesota corn crop, and likely 5 to 7 percent of the SouthDakota corn crop. Down-stream river levels (Missouri River and several interior rivers in Iowa,Minnesota, and South Dakota) are rising and at several places on these rivers, new record high floodlevels are being reached. It is quite likely that about 1 million acres of corn is under water in these threestates and at 190 bushels per acre would represent a loss of 201 million bushels of potential supply.Keep in mind that the planted acreage numbers released later this week will not adjust for this eventand, in fact, it is likely that harvested acreage estimates for corn will not be officially revised until at leastthe September crop report. In other areas of the world, the Black Sea drought is forecast to worsen over the next 10 days amidwarm and dry weather trends. A few