亚洲转型融资的技术清单和前景

Technology List andPerspectives for TransitionFinance in Asia 1stVersionSeptember2022 Introduction The importance oftransitiontechnology and finance inAsia The urgent need for decarbonisation is globally recognised, though significant uncertaintyremains regarding how countries will make the transition to net-zero CO2emissions within thetimeframe set out in the Paris Agreement. There are numerous opportunities to reduceCO2emissions in Asia. These, however, must takeaccount of the continent’s growing demand for energy to support its economic development–consumption is likely to grow by more than 30%between 2020 and 2040.1It is also important torecognisethat some countries, particularly those in South and Southeast Asia, currently relyheavily on emission-intensive energy sources such as coal, while some have limited ability todevelop renewable energy,for instancebecause of weather conditions or geography. The transition to net-zero will have to safeguard energy supplies against this backdrop, whichmeans that climate sustainability cannot be the sole consideration when choosing technologiesthat will reduce emissions. The transition to net-zero emissions should be‘just and orderly’,meaning that it should be sustainable, affordable, and reliable if it is to avoid abrupt dislocationand potentially social instability (Exhibit 1). As widely recognised,green technologies–that is, those with zero-emissions throughout theiroperation–are important components of the technology solution package. In addition,there isbroadacknowledgementthatthe net-zero transitionwill also have to include so-called transitiontechnologieswhichreduce carbon emissions but do notcompletelyeliminate them,and this isparticularly the caseto achievethe transitionina just and orderlymanner. Financial institutions will play an important role in mobilising private capital to fund both sets of technologies, but todate there has been little guidance on whatconstitutes a transition technology. The need for guidance on what constitutes a transition technology Various governments and international organisations have established standards and guidelinesto ensure financial flows are consistent with a pathway towards net-zero CO2emissions.However, these tend to focus on green technologies rather than transition technologies and oftenhave limited geographic relevance. For example, green technologies are the focus of theEuropean Union’s (EU) taxonomy for sustainable development.And because the EU’sdecarbonisation pathway is steeper than Asia’s, it rejects some of the technologies Asia is likelyto consider. Likewise, Singapore is developing a taxonomy that includes green and sometransition technologies andJapanhas published atechnology roadmap for a just and orderlytransition. Yet these may not be appropriate for other Asian countries, many of which have yet todevelopa decarbonisation pathway or supporting references that help define transitiontechnologies. TheAssociation of Southeast Asian Nations(ASEAN), meanwhile, is developing aregional perspective.The ASEAN Taxonomy Board (ATB) published its first version of taxonomyin 2021, recognising thecriticalityof establishing a regional common taxonomyfor sustainablefinance to succeed across the region.The taxonomyaimsto foster credibility and secure globalacceptance, butdoes notyetinclude thresholds and the list of eligible activities that couldbeusedtoassessif a technology in a targeted project is alignedwith the Paris Agreementasapartof atransition finance suitability assessment. Other initiatives seek to explain relevant green and transition technologies at an industry level.But as they are not specifically for a financial audience, theyseldom include guidance on how toevaluate the technologies when considering transition finance–an intrinsically complex task.TheInternational Energy Agency’s (IEA’s) Energy Technology Perspective is a case in point. The result is that many financialinstitutions still hesitate to fund transition technologies in Asia,thereby hampering efforts to decarbonise economies. This documentseeks to help unlock thatfunding and so facilitate the just and orderly transition to net-zero emissions. Thedocumentexamines eachcandidate technologyin a manner that will help financial institutions make aninitial assessment of its suitability for transition finance. How to use theframework Not all potential transition technologies are examined inthe first version of this report. The focusis on technologies that will have most impact on reducing emissions, and for that reason itfocuses primarily on the power sector and related upstream activities that together account formore than50%of the region’s CO2emissions. Futureversionsof thisreport will revise and widenits scope, and lack of inclusion here does not disqualify a technology from being considered as atransition technology(Exhibit2). Importantly too, theframeworkisnot a tool for making afinal decision on whether to providetransition fin