巴基斯坦穷人分类

Towards aTaxonomy of thePoor in PakistanPublic Disclosure Authorized Towards a Taxonomy of the Poor in Pakistan Christina WieserIbrahim Khan1 This version: July 23, 2024 Abstract Poor households are heterogeneous in the circumstances preventing an improvement in their welfare. It isimportant to understand the nuances within different types of poor households so that critical pathways out ofpoverty that remedy the variegated sets of constraints they face can be identified and acted on through policyaction. This paper attempts to categorize the bottom 40thconsumption percentile of households (B40) inPakistan into different non-overlapping groups using a non-parametric hierarchical cluster analysis, which allowsfor an empirically driven taxonomy of the poor in the country. Using data from the Household IntegratedEconomic Survey (HIES) 2018-19, we identify five groups among the B40 and exploretheir salient household andoccupational attributes through the lens of an asset framework of shared prosperity. 1Christina Wieser (cwieser@worldbank.org) is a Senior Economist in the Poverty and Equity Global Practice at the World Bank. IbrahimKhan (mkhan83@worldbank.org) is a Consultant in the Poverty and Equity Global Practice at the World Bank. The authors wouldlike tothank Moritz Meyer, Maria Qazi, Oscar Eduardo Barriga Cabanillas,and Jon Jellema for their excellent feedback. We declare that we haveno relevant or material financial interests that relate to the research described in this paper. The findings,interpretations, and conclusionsexpressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of The World Bank Group or any affiliated organizations, its Board of ExecutiveDirectors, or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee theaccuracy of the data included in this work. Disclaimer: This work is a product of the staff of the World Bank with external contributions. The findings, interpretations,and conclusionsexpressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of the Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments theyrepresent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work and does not assume responsibility for anyerrors, omissions, or discrepancies in the information, or liability with respect to the use of or failure to use the information, methods,processes, or conclusions set forth. The boundaries, colors, denominations, links/footnotes, and other information shown in this work donot imply any judgment on the part of The World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance ofsuch boundaries. The citation of works authored by others does not mean the World Bank endorses the views expressed by thoseauthorsor the content of their works. 1.Introduction Pakistan saw an extended period of rising household welfare between 2001 and 2018, later interrupted by aseries of crises. From 2001 to 2018, household real consumption grew by 60 percent, or an annual average of 3percent, leading to a sustained decline in poverty from 64.3 percent in 2001 to 21.9 percent in 2018 (WorldBank, 2023), and was achieved primarily by the expansion of off-farm economic opportunities and increasedout-migration. During the period of improved welfare, inequality levels remained relatively stable, with a Giniindex of 28.4 in 2018 (World Bank, 2023). While poverty declined across Pakistan, three challenges persist. First, disparities in welfare levels acrossprovinces, districts, and the rural-urban divide continue. Urban areas have seen a faster pace of povertyreduction due to expanding employment, especially in services and construction, which provide employmentfor lower income workers. Poverty has increasingly become concentrated among rural households working onagriculture and among those with low human capital endowments. For instance, in 2018,rural areas—wheretwo-thirds of the population but four out of five of the poor live—had a poverty rate (28.2 percent) more thantwice as high as urban areas (10.9 percent). Second, female and youth labor force participation remain low.Those (few) women who work have foundmostly low-skill, low-paying jobs. As much as 37 percent of Pakistan’s youth (aged 15 to 24) are not inemployment, education, or training (NEET), and even for young Pakistanis who work, labor market prospectsare grim. Third, recent years have presented Pakistani households with greater difficulties due to multiple back-to-backcrises, such as macroeconomic, political, and climate-induced shocks. In particular, the COVID-19 pandemic in2020 marked an end to Pakistan’s track record of consistent year-on-year poverty reduction with a projectedincrease in poverty of 3 percentage points. Furthermore, A precarious macroeconomic situation, withdangerously low reserves, an exchange rate in free fall, and an ambitious IMF-enforced fiscal consolidation planwas compounded by an unprecedented calamity in the form of torrential r