重新构想，再次进行

Public Sector PracticeNew York 2040: Time to reinvent.Again. This article is a collaborative effort by Anthony Shorris, Brooke Daniels, Maurice Obeid, andYael Taqqu, with Kevin Russell, representing views from McKinsey’s Public Sector Practice. Since the early 17th century, New York has beena global hub for the flow of goods, capital, people,and ideas.1It has experienced constant economictransformation, dominating first in the fur trade,then in shipping, sugar refinement, machine tools,the garment trade, business services, and finance.Through its evolution, New York has grown not onlyas a center of innovation but also as a catalyst forprogress around the world. The 18 arenas of competition The following 18 arenasof competition aredefined by high growth and dynamism: AI software and services, batteries, cloudservices, cybersecurity, digital advertisements,drugs for obesity and related conditions,e-commerce, electric vehicles, future airmobility, industrial and consumer biotech,modular construction, nuclear fission, robotics,semiconductors, shared autonomous vehicles,space, streaming video, and video games. Today, the New York metropolitan area’s biggestsectors include financial services, healthcare,professional services, retail, and education.2Thosefive sectors employ more than four million residentsand generate more than a trillion dollars in annualrevenues—more than half of the region’s GDP.3Technology is also one of the fastest-growingsectors in New York. among others. The 18 arenas will generate outsizeeconomic growth, raise productivity in other fields,transform lives, and—if the companies in the arenashave operations or headquarters in the region—build on New York’s global leadership. And while core sectors have persisted and evolved,the past 400 years have shown that today’s leadingindustries may not be the industries that generatewaves of job creation, wage increases, livingstandards, or economic growth in the decadesto come. The time has come for New York’s bold,imaginative leaders—in communities, industry,academia, government, and civic organizations—tojoin forces and reinvent New York once again. We believe the future of the New York regionwill be built on strategic investment, inclusion,and collaboration in these arenas; they promiseinnovation and revolutionary productivity, they arelikely to see an abundance of new entrants, and theycould transform the urban fabric. From industry-leading technologies to medical breakthroughs andcultural transformation, this next wave of evolutionwill require leaders to bring everyone to the table,think boldly, and act decisively. Recent research by the McKinsey Global Institute(MGI) suggests that 18 arenas of competition,a unique category of industries defined by highgrowth and dynamism that includes e-commerceand cloud services, could reshape the globaleconomy in the next ten to 15 years (see sidebar,“The 18 arenas of competition”).4Examples ofarenas include e-commerce, cloud services,robotics, and shared autonomous vehicles (SAVs), The New York of 2040 isn’t just a dream—it’s adestination. It’s a future shaped by bold ideas,collective action, and a relentless commitment toprogress. The region that is home to the city thatnever sleeps is waking up to a new day, ready to leadthe world into tomorrow. The New York of 2040isn’t just a dream—it’s adestination. It’s a futureshaped by bold ideas,collective action, and arelentless commitmentto progress. The future growth arenas poised totransform New York’s economy Arenas have shaped New York’s growth. Since2005, for example, the five largest sectors in theregion have been real estate, professional services,financial services, IT, and healthcare, which togetheraccounted for about 80 percent of New York’sGDP growth, growing about 3.5 percent annually,on average (Exhibit 1). That overall growth in NewYork’s traditional core sectors benefitted fromindustry tailwinds within those sectors undergoingtransformative change. New MGI research has identified a set of arenas thatreshaped the global economy in the past coupledecades, as well as a set of emerging arenas thatare likely to reshape the global economy again overthe next 15 years. We define arenas as dynamic industries with highgrowth in revenue and market capitalization. Threeelements consistently underpin these dynamicfeatures: disruptive advances in technology orbusiness models, escalating investments thatrapidly improve product or service quality and spur arace to the top, and high demand in global markets.In short, they are relatively small segments of theindustrial landscape that are responsible for most ofthe transformative change in each economic era. For example, the consumer internet, software, andvideo and audio entertainment industries are eacha small portion of the IT sector; they respectivelygrew by 21 percent, 12 percent, and 8 percentglobally from 2005 to 2020 because of increasedinvestment and technological advancements.6 In the financ