超越发电机组：推进拉各斯州的能源转型

BEYOND GENSETS:ADVANCINGTHEENERGYTRANSITIONINLAGOSSTATE OCTOBER 2024 Pleasedonotcopy,citeordistributewithoutthepermissionofSEforALL.Anyuse ofthismaterialwithoutspecificpermissionisstrictlyprohibited. TABLE OF CONTENTS 01Executive Summary0802Introduction1503Study Approach2104Study Methodology3505Results4406Insights6807Appendix73 GLOSSARY OF TERMS AND ABBREVIATIONS GLOSSARY OF TERMS AND ABBREVIATIONS GLOSSARY OF TERMS AND ABBREVIATIONS The Beyond Gensets: Advancing the Energy Transition in LagosState report is more than just a study—it’s a catalyst for action. The study offers insights that systemically should drive DistributedSolar PV (DPV) initiatives such as rooftop solar with backupstorage that reduce our reliance on fossil fuels, starting here inLagos and scaling across the nation. By understanding andworking to mitigate the impacts of diesel and petrol generator sets,we are taking decisive steps toward a cleaner, more sustainableenergy future for Lagos and Nigeria as a Nation. Together, we can transform these findings into tangible progress,setting the standard for genset displacement nationwide. BIODUN OGUNLEYE Commissioner of Energy and Mineral Resources, Lagos State EXECUTIVESUMMARY01 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY (1/6) Nigeria’sambitiousenergytransitiontargetsuniversalaccessby2030andnet-zeroemissionsby2060.Dieselandpetrolgeneratorsets(hereafter“gensets”)poseasignificantchallenge,contributing70%ofpowersectoremissionsinNigeriaandnecessitatingurgentdisplacement.However,transitioningtocleaneralternatives,inlinewiththenation’sclimateanddevelopmentgoals,requiresprecisedatacollectionaroundthenumberofgensets. Context&Objectives In2023,SEforALLprovidedsupporttotheLagosStateGovernmentthroughtheLagosStateMinistryofEnergyandMineralResourcestoconductastate-widefossilfuelgensetstudy.Thisstudy,withspatialdataaccessibleontheNigeriaIntegratedEnergyPlanning(IEP)tool,aimstoguidethedesign,developmentanddeliveryofastate-widefossilfueldisplacementprogrammetoreplacefossilfuel-basedself-generation of power.The project also intends to test and develop a data collection methodology to create a cost-effective,replicableand scalable pathwaythatserves as ablueprintforsimilar initiatives nationwide.Ultimately,thisstudymarks acrucialsteptowardssustainableandscalablerenewableenergysolutions,aligningwithbroadernationalenergytransitionobjectives. Thelackofadequateactionabledataandunderstandingregardingthecapacity,usageandimpactsofgensetscurrentlyimpedesthedevelopmentoftargetedandeffectivesolutions.ToaddressgensetusageinNigeria,amorepreciseandcomprehensiveexaminationofusagepatternswasimperative.AsNigeria’slargesteconomichub,LagosStatewasanidealpilotstatetoundertakesuchastudy.Inaddition,theinterestoftheLagosStateGovernmentinadistributedsolarPVprogramme,itshighelectricitydemandandprevalentgensetusagemadeittheidealstartingpoint. Rationalefor the study LagosishometoasignificantportionofNigeria'spopulationandcontributesapproximately27%ofitsGDP.Itfacescriticalenergychallenges,andhasthehighestelectricitydemandinNigeria,yetonlyabout20%ofthisdemandismetbythegrid,leadingtoarelianceongensetsforthedeficit.Consequently,Lagoshasthehighestexpenditureonfossilfuelpurchasesnationwide.Thisrelianceonbackupgenerationtogetherwiththeremovaloffuelsubsidiesputsalotofpressureonbothhouseholdsandbusinesses.Inresponsetothesechallenges,the Lagos StateGovernment expressed interest in implementinga distributed solarPVprogrammetoreplace gensets,indicatinga clear need for comprehensive energy studies and potential interventions.Studying energy dynamics and potentialinterventionsin Lagos State presents a strategic opportunity to address critical energy challenges and facilitates sustainabledevelopmentinNigeria'seconomicanddemographicepicentre. Thestudycaninformdecisionssuchasthedevelopmentoftargetedenergypoliciesandinterventions,thedesignoftailoredsolutionstocustomersegmentsdeterminedbyspecificenergyneeds,andconsumptionpatterns. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY (2/6) SEforALLcarriedoutsurveysutilizingbothtraditionalmethodologiesandadvancedgeospatialanalyticstoestablishbaselineestimatesonvariousindicatorsrelevanttoreplacingfossilfuel-basedgensetssuchas:household/industrycharacteristics,gridconnectivityanduse,gensetownershipanduse,etc. StudyApproach Primarydatacollectioninvolvedhouseholdfieldsurveysacross20localgovernmentareas(LGAs)inLagosandenumerationofthecommercialsector(using alist sourcedfrom theLagos StateMinistryof Commerce andtheGRID3 database).Secondary datacollectioninvolvedreviewingpreviousstudies,withafocusonmarkets.Impactanalysiswasconductedoncollectedbaselinedataacrossfivekeyindicators:economics,health,environmentalimpact,interestinsolarbackupsystemsandfinancing. TheresultingdatawillbeavailableontheNigeriaIntegratedEnergyPlanning(IEP)toolforvisualization.Residentialdataareaggregatedandpresentedattheward,LGAandstatelevels,whileresultsforthecommercialsectoraswellasmarketsareaggregatedatthestatelevel.Moreover,commercialsiteswerealsoaddedasinteractivepointsofin