美国对美国否认的例外论

US Exceptionalism to US Repudiation Scores on the Doors: gold 19.5%, govt bonds 4.3%, IG 2.4%, cash 1.2%, HY 0.2%,commodities-5.5%, stocks -6.2%, US dollar -7.0%, oil -16.1%, crypto -38.8% YTD. 10 April 2025 Investment StrategyGlobal Zeitgeist:“I wouldn’t want to be a waiter in Boca Raton tonight,”retired investor on USmuni bond meltdown. Zeitgeist: "Musk owned the long-end in Q1, but now the long-end owns Trump.” The Biggest Picture:“US exceptionalism”ending,“US repudiation”starting; end oferaof“US buys RoW goods-RoW buys US Treasuries”…buyers’strike of US assets;foreigners own 33% ($8.5tn) of US Treasuries (Chart 2), 27% ($4.4tn) US corp bonds,18% ($16.5tn)of US stocks…why US dollar in secular bear market, US yield curve set tosteepen, old S&P500 valuation“floor”of 20x is now the new“ceiling”(Chart 3). Michael HartnettInvestment StrategistBofAS+1 646 855 1508michael.hartnett@bofa.com Long 2s, short Spoos:“higher US yields, lower stocks, lower US$”driving global assetliquidation, willlikely force policymakers to act; but we“sell-the-rips,”long 2-yearTreasuries, shortS&P until a. Fed cuts hard to break liquidation cycle, b. Trump-Xi pausetrade warto reverse global recession momentum; we still think SPX at 4.8k is the rightlevel to buyrisk assets if policy panic makes recession short/shallow. Elyas Galou>>Investment StrategistBofASE (France)+33 1 8770 0087elyas.galou@bofa.com Anya ShelekhinInvestment StrategistBofAS+1 646 855 3753anya.shelekhin@bofa.com US Treasury ownershipsince 1945 Myung-Jee JungInvestment StrategistBofAS+1 646 855 0389myung-jee.jung@bofa.com More on page 2… Source:BofA Global Investment Strategy The indicatoridentified above as the BofA Bull & Bear Indicator isintended to be an indicative metric only and may not beused for reference purposes or as a measure ofperformance for any financial instrument or contract, orotherwise relied upon by third parties for any otherpurpose, without the prior written consent of BofAGlobal Research. This indicator was not created to act asa benchmark.BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH Refer to "Other Important Disclosures" for information on certain BofA Securities entities that takeresponsibility for the information herein in particular jurisdictions.BofA Securities does and seeks to do business with issuers covered in its research reports. As a result,investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict ofinterest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider thisreport as only a single factor in making their investment decision.Refer to important disclosures on page 9 to 11.12816311 Timestamp: 11 April 2025 01:35AM EDT Weekly Flows: $48.9bn to stocks, $1.8bn to gold, $0.5bn from crypto, $3.7bn fromcash, $20.8bn from bonds. Flows to Know: •Treasuries: biggest weekly inflow ever ($18.8bn);•HY bonds: biggest weekly outflow ever ($15.9bn);•IG bonds: biggest outflow since Oct’22 ($12.0bn);•Bank loan: biggest weekly outflow ever ($5.4bn);•TIPS: biggest inflow since Nov'21 ($1.6bn);•Equities: big $48.9bn inflow, driven by massive $70.3bn inflow to“passive”funds vs$21.3bn redemptions from“active”(liquidation events e.g. Lehman/COVID causeETF“share creation”to facilitate stock sales/shorting);•Financials: biggest outflow ever ($3.6bn);•Foreigners: selling of US equities ($6.5bn–Chart 6) and US corporate bonds($3.0bn), buying of US Treasuries ($0.6bn). BofA Private Clients: $3.5tn AUM allocated 59.6% to stocks (1stdrop below 60% sinceNov'23–Chart 10), 20.8% to bonds (highest since Jan’24), 12.4% to cash (highest sinceOct’23); GWIM added to low-vol, TIPS, municipal bond, equity growth ETFs in past week,and sold staples, bank loan, IG bond ETFs. BofA Bull & Bear Indicator: falls only slightly to 4.8 from 4.9 as big inflows to EMequities help offset outflows from HY bonds & deteriorating stock market breadth. BofA Global Breadth Rule: on Monday 76% of MSCI ACWI country indices tradedbelow both 50-day & 200-day moving averages…close but not quite triggering a buysignal from BofA Global Breadth Rule (triggered at 88%); note 10 buy signals since 2011,after which MSCI ACWI rallied 4-5% following 4 weeks. The View •We are long 2-year Treasuries, short S&P 500, sell-the-rips in risk assets until a. Fedcuts break liquidation cycle of“higher yields, lower stocks, lower US$”, b. US-Chinatrade war eases to reverse recession momentum, c. US consumer purchasing powerrises via real wages, <$3/gallon gas prices, big mortgage refi; •3Ps of max bearishPositioning, max bearishProfit expectations,Policy panic alwayssignal big market lows…•OnPositioning: investor sentiment insanely bearish (why risk can rip)…but datashows investors much more emotionally bearish than physically bearish; BofA Bull &Bear Indicator is not below 2 (currently 4.8), equity fund outflows nowhere close to1-1.5% AUM (currently 0), BofA GWIM stocks allocation as % AUM was 54% Mar’20,39% Mar’08 (currently 60%)…we think investors will reduce allocation to risk asset