为电信服务提供商制定面向未来的商业战略（英）

Strategic imperatives in theage of commoditization & AI C O N T E N T E X E C U T I V E S U M M A R Y31 .N AV I G AT I N G U N C E R TA I N E N V I R O N M E N T S42 .T H E E X E C U T E - E L E VAT E - E X P L O R ES T R AT E G Y83 .A R C H E T Y P E S O F F U T U R E T S PB 2 C B U S I N E S S M O D E L S3 0C O N C L U S I O N3 4 MARC PALACIOS BOIXPartner, TIMEMexico City DR. NEJC JAKOPINPartner, Telecommunication, InformationTechnology, Media & Electronics (TIME)Munich CLEMENT SAMSONPrincipal, TIMEParis KURTULUS ALICPartner, TIMEIstanbul GREGORY PANKERTManaging Partner, TIMEBrussels GUILLEM CASAHUGAPartner, TIMEHouston E X E C U T I V ES U M M A R Y The landscape for telecom service providers (TSPs)1hassignificantly shifted in recent years. Traditionally, TSPs reliedon their physical networks to set them apart, but this advantagehas begun to fade. Today, they face an increasingly crowdedfield with new competitors, such as hyperscalers (large cloudservice providers, including AWS and Microsoft Azure), highlyfocused mobile virtual network operators (MVNOs), and fiberproviders, making the market more competitive, especially indigital services. This change comes at a challenging time, withhigh inflation, rising interest rates, and a potential economicdownturn — making investments riskier and more expensive.Although inflation declined in 2024, many countries, especiallyin Europe, are still recovering with a 2024 GDP growth rate ofless than 1%; the forecasted rate for 2025 is around 1.5%. TSPsmust now reassess their market approach and innovate to stayrelevant to their customers in these uncertain times. This Report was developed in collaboration with 50 executives fromglobal TSPs in a coevolution process. We utilized key insights frominterviews conducted with global TSP CxOs in the first half of 2024,as well as real-life examples, largely drawn from the experienceof these executives and Arthur D. Little (ADL) projects. These casestudies are intended to provide an overarching picture for operatorsto consider in their strategic analysis of future value creation byexploring opportunities “at the core,” “near the core,” and “non-core.”The Report champions a three-pronged approach — Execute, Elevate,and Explore — to refine operational excellence, transform near-corebusiness, and venture into new markets, respectively. To secure their future success, TSPs must identify and harnesskey strategic enablers while navigating associated trade-offs.Our findings highlight a wide array of AI applications that offerimmediate benefits, as well as observations of AI-driven, long-termenhancement of business models. Delaying transformation initiativesplaces TSPs at a competitive disadvantage. With that in mind, wedelineate five (+1) potential archetypes for TSP business evolution,underlining the importance of timely and strategic adaptation. 1 .N A V I G A T I N G U N C E R T A I NE N V I R O N M E N T S The telecom industry is experiencing a disruptiveperiod of change. The value creation modelsof traditional telecom providers are becomingmore outdated, and telco asset reconfigurationis accelerating. Reconfiguring assets involvesaligning the traditional layers of an integratedtelco with their underlying fundamental businessmodel and capabilities. Telcos and otherindustry players are reorganizing their assetsand capabilities along their value chains, suchas networks, services, and products, to betteralign with their core competencies and strategicgoals. These developments are particularlyaffecting TSPs and will decisively shape theirpresent and future development. Many ADLpublications describe this trend and emphasizethe underlying drivers and major trade-offs aswell as the transformative implications of thisstrategicshift.2 growing competition from hyperscalersand “over the top” (OTT) players (e.g., Netflix,Amazon Prime Video), and growing diversification/heterogenization of existing/future TSP businessmodels (see Figure 1). These challenges will shape future TSPbusiness models and require attentionand full understanding: -Challenge 1: Commoditization oftechnology.InfraCo separation as well asthe rise of softwarization and core API-as-a-service erode product network–baseddifferentiation. -Challenge 2: Global information andcommunications technology (ICT) leaders,OTT players, and specialized challengers.New entrants, OTT players, and hyperscalersaim to steal most of the historical telco value.- Current business models of traditional TSPsface multiple challenges, such as diminishingdifferentiation in network and technology,Figure 1. Telco industry dynamics Challenge 3: Heterogenization of businessmodels.TSP business model heterogeneitywill strongly increase as TSPs prioritizeinvestments in product differentiation. CHALLENGE 2: GLOBAL ICTLEADERS, OTT PLAYERS &SPECIALIZED CHALLENGERS CHALLENGE 1:COMMODITIZATIONOF TECHNOLOGY Accelerating asset reconfiguration and theincreasing entry of financial investors have l