2025全球贸易趋势的研究报告

ATLAS 2025 MAPPING THE SHIFTING LANDSCAPE OF GLOBAL TRADE Steven A. Altman is a Senior Research Scholar and Research Assistant Professor atthe New York University Stern School of Business. He is also Directorof the DHL Initiative on Globalization at NYU Stern’s Center for theFuture of Management, affiliated with NYU Stern’s Department ofManagement and Organizations. His research focuses on globalization and its implications for business strategy and public policy.He holds a PhD from the University of Reading, an MBA from theHarvard Business School, an MPA from Harvard’s John F. KennedySchool of Government, and a BS in Economics from the WhartonSchool of Business at the University of Pennsylvania. Caroline R. Bastian is a Senior Research Scholar at the New York University Stern Schoolof Business. Ms. Bastian is based in the school’s DHL Initiativeon Globalization at its Center for the Future of Management.She coordinates the initiative’s work on data science, statistics,quantitative methods, and data visualization. Ms. Bastian holdsan MS in Applied Statistics for Social Science Research from NewYork University, a Master of International Affairs from ColumbiaUniversity, and a BA from Pacific University. DHL TRADEATLAS 2025 Mapping the Shifting Landscape of Global Trade Steven A. AltmanCaroline R. BastianNYU Stern School of BusinessCenter for the Future of ManagementDHL Initiative on Globalization CONTENTS INTRODUCTION 2. TRADE GROWTH BY COUNTRY AND REGION 23 Contents2Preface4Ten Key Takeaways6Executive Summary8Notes Executive Summary73 Trade Growth Speed and Scale24 Speed Rankings26Scale Rankings28Speed and Scale Forecasts30Trade Growth Opportunity Map32 Notes Section 276 PART I 3. THE SHIFTING GEOGRAPHY OF WORLD TRADE35 1. GLOBAL TRADE GROWTH12 Trade Center of Gravity Since 195036Trade Shares by Region38Trade Shares by Country Income Level40Trade Share Changes vs. Absolute Trade Growth41Average Distance and Regionalization43Notes Section 377 Baseline Trade Growth Outlook13Tariff Threats and Downside Scenarios15The Rise of Cross-Border E-Commerce17Six Reasons Why Globalization Can Survive Trump 2.018Trade Growth in Historical Perspective20How Globalization Contributes to Rising Prosperity22Notes Section 174 4. GEOPOLITICS AND SHIFTING TRADE PATTERNS PART II 48 COUNTRY TRADE PROFILES80 Geopolitics and Trade Shifts in Global Perspective49Country Blocs and Geopolitical Distance50Countries at the Center of Current Tensions54Has the U.S. Really Reduced its Reliance onImports From China?56 Notes Section 478 Country Profiles Explanationand Data Sources82 APPENDIX277 Supplementary Tables and Figures278Selected Bibliography286Trade Data Sources and Disclaimer287 5. THE MIX OF GOODS TRADED 58 Current Mix of Goods Traded59Global Trade Mix Trends64Notes Section 579 6. TRADE IN GLOBAL ECONOMIC CONTEXT 66 The Global Balance of Trade vs. Domestic Business67Trade Intensity by Industry and Country69 Notes Section 679 DEAR READER, How will trade flows evolve in the coming years? Whatimpact will geopolitical tensions have? Which countries andregions will lead in trade growth? And which trends shoulddecision-makers monitor to optimize supply chains? This latest edition of the DHL Trade Atlas arrives at a pivotaltime. It provides a comprehensive analysis of trade patternsfor nearly 200 countries and territories around the world.The report offers a clear overview of the latest trends,challenges, and opportunities in global trade, serving as aconvenient reference for public discourse. Encouragingly, the 2025 edition underscores that globaltrade is projected to continue growing despite unprecedented uncertainty regarding potential new tariffs. Countriessuch as India, Viet Nam, Indonesia, and the Philippines areforecast to experience rapid trade growth over the next fiveyears. Regionally, South Asia, SubSaharan Africa, andSoutheast Asia are set to stand out. Significant trade growthopportunities exist across advanced and emergingeconomies, and the world remains far from a division intodisconnected geopolitical blocs. This has great relevance forDHL and its customers, who are aiming to set up resilient andefficient supply chains – and counteract or mitigate theimpact of new tariffs and trade barriers. Especially in hightech, consumer electronics and automotive, we seecustomers reconfiguring their supply chains – and stronginterest for value added services such as assembly andproduct localization. In line with this, the EU and Mercosur countries took asignificant step toward establishing a major free trade zonein December 2024. Shortly thereafter, the UK joined theCPTPP trans-Pacific free trade agreement. Most countriescontinue to embrace international trade, which is positivenews. With the 2025 edition of the DHL Trade Atlas, we are excitedto introduce free interactive content atdhl.com/tradeatlas.This new feature allows you to customize analyses andexplore additional trade patterns and trend