氢能：美国制造，服务于美国

Hydrogen:Made inAmerica,for America Why maintaining US energy leadershiprequires a robust and sizeablehydrogen market Authors and Acknowledgments Authors Tessa WeissKate HickeyJoaquin RosasOleksiy TatarenkoChristina Pastoria All authors are from RMI unless otherwise noted. RMI Contributors Chathurika GamageKaitlyn RamirezCorey StewartAbby MartinMaeve Masterson Contacts Tessa Weiss,tweiss@rmi.orgOleksiy Tatarenko,otatarenko@rmi.org Copyrights and Citation Tessa Weiss, Kate Hickey, Joaquin Rosas, Oleksiy Tatarenko, Christina Pastoria,Hydrogen: Made in America,for America, RMI, 2025,https://rmi.org/insight/hydrogen-made-in-america-for-america. RMI values collaboration and aims to accelerate the energy transition through sharing knowledge andinsights. We therefore allow interested parties to reference, share, and cite our work through the CreativeCommons CC BY-SA 4.0 license.https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/. All images are from RMI unless otherwise noted. Acknowledgments This report was written with support from Breakthrough Energy. Views reflect those of the authors and notnecessarily those of the supporting organization. About RMI RMI is an independent nonprofit, founded in 1982 as Rocky Mountain Institute, that transforms globalenergy systems through market-driven solutions to align with a 1.5°C future and secure a clean,prosperous, zero-carbon future for all. We work in the world’s most critical geographies and engagebusinesses, policymakers, communities, and NGOs to identify and scale energy system interventions thatwill cut climate pollution at least 50 percent by 2030. RMI has offices in Basalt and Boulder, Colorado; NewYork City; Oakland, California; Washington, D.C.; Abuja, Nigeria; and Beijing. Table of Contents Executive Summary. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .5 The Global Hydrogen Opportunity. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .8 Building an American Hydrogen Market. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .10 A vision for success. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .10First movers follow the demand. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .12Costs remain high for many domestic offtakers. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .15First-mover risks narrow commercial opportunities and capital access. . . . . . . . . . .17 Strengthening US Hydrogen Demand. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .20 US hydrogen demand drivers. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .20Role of policy. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .22Role of market mechanisms. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .24 Appendix. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .33 Appendix A: Cost Parity Graphs. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .33Appendix B: Methodology and Assumptions. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .35 Endnotes. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .38 Executive Summary Hydrogen is a strategic economic and energy opportunity for the United States. By 2050, it could supply10%-15% of the world’s energy and drive a market with $2.5 trillion in annual revenue, strengtheningAmerica’s industrial base, energy security, and global leadership.1Hydrogen is the most scalable, low-emissions solution for producing essential commodities like steel, petrochemicals, fertilizers, and maritimeshipping or aviation fuels, ensuring US industries remain competitive in the rapidly shifting global economy.2 Countries worldwide are moving quickly to secure this opportunity. A $680 billion global project pipelinehas been announced, targeting completion by 2030, and $75 billion has reached Final Investment Decision(FID).3However, the US market is struggling to take off despite abundant natural resources, leadinginnovations, and significant tax incentives. Of the 17 million metric tons (MMT) supply pipeline, less than10% have reached FID, with 60% yet to begin feasibility planning.4 Despite good progress made in the past several years, the US hydrogen industry faces headwinds andslow scale-up. This is driven by weak domestic demand, caused by fragmented and delayed policy andchallenged economics in many offtake sectors. As a result, US hydrogen producers have increasinglylooked at non-US markets to export US supply, which offer stronger, policy-backed demand. Thisdemand vector creates exposure to wider trade relationships between the United States and prospectiveimporting countries, and on its own is not sufficient to put America into a strong leadership position.Domestically, producers may see smaller market opportunities, such as feedstock for sustainableaviation fuel (SAF) producers or as fuels for on-road transportation in the states with low carbon fuelstandards (e.g., California). These