Q1 2025 AI & ML Public Comp Sheet and Valuation Guide Summary
Key Takeaways:
- Hyperscalers AI Investment: Despite potential recession, hyperscalers like Amazon, Google, and Microsoft are likely to maintain large investments in AI.
- Medium and Large Customers Spending: These customers may modestly reduce AI spending during a recession.
- AI Progress: Capital is expected to continue flowing into major AI companies, with a focus on revenue, product leadership, and strong founders.
- Venture Capital Trends: Recession may lead to smaller pre-seed and seed rounds, benefiting established players like Amazon, Microsoft, and Meta.
- Datacenter Components: Tariffs on China and East Asia may impact datacenter component supply and demand.
Stock Returns:
- AI Core - Conglomerates: Amazon, Apple, Baidu, Google, IBM, Meta, Microsoft, Oracle, SAP, Teradata, ZoomInfo.
- AI Core - Pure-play: BigBear.ai, C3.ai, Coveo, MongoDB, nCino, OpenText, Palantir, Rackspace Technology, Snowflake, UiPath.
- Generative AI Vertical Applications - Conglomerates: Adobe, JPMorgan, Moody's, Salesforce, ServiceNow, Tenable, Uber, Workday, ZipRecruiter, Zoom.
- Generative AI Vertical Applications - Pure-play: BigBear.ai, Crowdstrike, Datadog, Duolingo, Recursion Pharmaceuticals, SoundHound, Veritone, ZoomInfo.
- AI Semiconductors: AMD, Astera Labs, Arm, Dell, HP Enterprise, Marvell Technology, Micron Technology, NVIDIA, Qualcomm, Super Micro Computer.
- AI Autonomous Machines: Aptiv, Cognex, ECARX, Innoviz, Luminar Technologies, Mobileye, Stryker, Symbotic, Tesla, Zebra Technologies.
Valuations:
- EV/LTM Revenue and EV/LTM EBITDA data available for various AI companies.
Revenue:
- AI Core - Conglomerates: Amazon, Apple, Baidu, Google, IBM, Meta, Microsoft, Oracle, SAP, Teradata, ZoomInfo.
- AI Core - Pure-play: BigBear.ai, C3.ai, Coveo, MongoDB, nCino, OpenText, Palantir, Rackspace Technology, Snowflake, UiPath.
- Generative AI Vertical Applications - Conglomerates: Adobe, JPMorgan, Moody's, Salesforce, ServiceNow, Tenable, Uber, Workday, ZipRecruiter, Zoom.
- Generative AI Vertical Applications - Pure-play: BigBear.ai, Crowdstrike, Datadog, Duolingo, Recursion Pharmaceuticals, SoundHound, Veritone, ZoomInfo.
- AI Semiconductors: AMD, Astera Labs, Arm, Dell, HP Enterprise, Marvell Technology, Micron Technology, NVIDIA, Qualcomm, Super Micro Computer.
- AI Autonomous Machines: Aptiv, Cognex, ECARX, Innoviz, Luminar Technologies, Mobileye, Stryker, Symbotic, Tesla, Zebra Technologies.
EBITDA:
- AI Core - Conglomerates: Amazon, Apple, Baidu, Google, IBM, Meta, Microsoft, Oracle, SAP, Teradata, ZoomInfo.
- AI Core - Pure-play: BigBear.ai, C3.ai, Coveo, MongoDB, nCino, OpenText, Palantir, Rackspace Technology, Snowflake, UiPath.
- Generative AI Vertical Applications - Conglomerates: Adobe, JPMorgan, Moody's, Salesforce, ServiceNow, Tenable, Uber, Workday, ZipRecruiter, Zoom.
- Generative AI Vertical Applications - Pure-play: BigBear.ai, Crowdstrike, Datadog, Duolingo, Recursion Pharmaceuticals, SoundHound, Veritone, ZoomInfo.
- AI Semiconductors: AMD, Astera Labs, Arm, Dell, HP Enterprise, Marvell Technology, Micron Technology, NVIDIA, Qualcomm, Super Micro Computer.
- AI Autonomous Machines: Aptiv, Cognex, ECARX, Innoviz, Luminar Technologies, Mobileye, Stryker, Symbotic, Tesla, Zebra Technologies.
