Experts Imagine the Impact of Artificial Intelligence by 2040

Impact of ArtificialIntelligence by 2040 They say we will have to rethink what it means to behuman and reinvent or replace major institutions By Lee Rainie and Janna Anderson A New Age of Enlightenment? ANew Threat to Humanity? ExpertsImagine the ImpactofArtificial Intelligence by 2040 Theysay we will have torethinkwhat it means to be human andreinvent or replace major institutions By Lee Rainie andJanna Anderson Imagining the Digital Future CenterElon University Recommended Citation:Lee Rainie, Janna Anderson. “Experts Imagine the Impact of ArtificialIntelligence by 2040.” Imagining the Digital Future Center. February 29, 2024. About Elon University’s Imagining the Digital Future Center Imagining the Digital Futureis a non-partisan, public-good researchinitiativeatElon University focusedon the impact of the digital revolution and whatmaylie ahead.The Center was established in 2000 andexpanded and renamed in 2023.Itsmission is to discover and broadly share a diverse range of opinionsand ideas about thepotential futureimpact of digital change, informing important conversations andpolicy formation and helping to promote a positive future for humanity.The Center draws on insightsgathered through canvassings of thoughtful and far-sighted experts in a wide range of fields. Thosequalitative contributions are complemented by a range of methodologies, including public opinionpolling, computational analysis and other data-driven research. How we did this Thisreport shares results oftheCenter’s17thcanvassing.It buildsoff previous efforts that were jointlyconductedbyElon’s Imagining the Internet CenterandPew Research Center’s Internet Project;48previousreportswere generated by that partnership between 2004 and 2023.Thisreport, asinthoseearlier, is a collection of qualitative written responses to a primary research question.Responses to aseries of quantitative questions are also included. Experts’ predictions reported here came in nonscientific canvassing (based on a nonrandom sample)conducted between Oct. 4 and Nov. 6, 2023.Elon’s Centersampled from a database of experts to collectabroad array of opinions about the potential impact ofhumans’design and uses ofartificial intelligence(AI) across a variety of individual and societaldomains.Participants representa wide range of fields,includinginnovators,professionals and policy people based intechnology businesses,nonprofits,foundations, think tanksand government,as wellasacademicsand researchers.In all, 328 expertsresponded to at least one aspect of the canvassing, including 251 who answered multiple-choicequestions and 166who provided written answers to the key open-ended question. The respondents’ remarks reflect their personal positions and are not the positions of their employers;the descriptions of their leadership roles help identify their background and the locus of their expertise. Fulldetails on themethodology underlying the expertcanvassing andthescientific U.S. public opinionsurvey (run by Ipsos)can befoundinChapter9:Methodologies. ExpertsImagine the Impact of AIby 2040 Theysay we will have torethinkwhat it means to be human and reinvent orreplace major institutions As uses ofartificial intelligence (AI) systemsexpand,a two-partresearch studyrevealsa broad range ofopinions as to howcomplicated and, at times, disorientingtheselife-changingdigital toolsare likely tobeand how they mightaffectpeople’slives and societies.Elon University’s Imagining the Digital FutureCenter conductedacanvassing of a select group of global technology experts and analystsandaseparateU.S. national public opinion surveylate in2023. Both the canvassing and the survey askedrespondentsabout keyaspects of lifeand the potential impactof AI on them. They were asked whether they thoughtthe impact would be more positive or morenegative acrossa number of domains. The experts were also invited to write open-ended answers aboutthe individual and societalgains and losses due to AI impact bythe year2040. Considered together, these combined qualitative and quantitative studies represent one of the mostcomprehensive assessmentsever recordedof public and expert views about the impact of AI on a widerange of domains of society. The full details of thecanvassing of experts are reported here.Afull explanationofthe methodology oftheU.S. national public opinion survey on AI impact by 2040andthe quantitative results from thecanvassing of global experts and analysts can be found inChapter9.Thefull report on the U.S. publicopinion surveyisavailable online. Participants in both the U.S. public opinion survey and the canvassing of global experts were asked toview a list of topics and express how AI’s impact might influence each. Both groupsexpressedconcernsover the future ofprivacy, wealth inequalities, politics and elections, employment opportunities,thelevel of civility in society and personal relationships with others. This reportfocuses only on theglobal experts’ opinions. They were as