行业研究公司研究宏观策略财报招股书会议纪要 Token 低空经济十五五 AIGC 大模型

GKJ dence,as ASML international receiving conference,not and prevention period visit the country GKJ

2025-04-17 未知机构阿杰

ASML在国内市场收入占比下降，但整体需求依然强劲。25Q1中国大陆市场收入约15.5亿欧元，占总收入27%，预计2025年占比将略高于25%，较去年近50%显著下降。客户结构上，国内厂商收入占比下降，但大型厂商仍占较大份额，AI仍是主要驱动力。公司正与客户和供应商合作降低关税和地缘政治影响。

GKJ产业趋势明确，国内核心公司面向的市场容量持续扩容：

低端国产GKJ今年将放量，主要驱动因素是替换海外二手翻新机台及日系厂商。
高端国产GKJ今年将进入量产拐点，上游精密加工产能扩张，单机配套价值量上行。
存量维保翻新市场是重要增量需求来源，ASML北京厂扩建和核心一级公司产能扩张将推动需求。
国产EUV进度逐步上修远期成长天花板，未来2-3年业务进度上修将支撑估值持续扩张。

核心标的：茂莱光学、汇成真空，业绩有望爆发。建议关注：福光股份、福晶科技、波长光电。

GKJ dence,as ASML international receiving conference,not and prevention period visit the country GKJ

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