博鳌亚洲论坛亚洲经济前景及一体化进程2025年度报告

博鳌亚洲论坛 亚洲经济前景及一体化进程 2025 年度报告 图书在版编目（CIP）数据 博鳌亚洲论坛亚洲经济前景及一体化进程2025年度报告.--北京:对外经济贸易大学出版社, 2025. 3.ISBN 978-7-5663-2688-1Ⅰ. F130.4中国国家版本馆CIP数据核字第2025GN9585号 博鳌亚洲论坛亚洲经济前景及一体化进程 2025 年度报告 责任编辑：张俊娟 邮政编码：100029邮购电话：010−64492338发行部电话：010−64492342E-mail：uibep@126.com 出版发行：对外经济贸易大学出版社社址：北京市朝阳区惠新东街10号网址：www.uibep.com资源网址：www.uibepresources.com 印刷：北京博海升彩色印刷有限公司版次：2025年3月北京第1版印次：2025年3月第1次印刷定价：238.00元 成品尺寸：215mm×278mm印张：11.25字数：288千字ISBN 978-7-5663-2688-1 序言······································································IX 编写说明及致谢·····················································XIII 写作团队成员·························································XV 执行摘要·····························································XVII 缩略语································································XXV 上篇亚洲经济前景与政策 亚洲经济前景···································································003 1.1概述······································································································0031.2经济增长································································································0041.3就业与收入·····························································································0081.4通货膨胀································································································0101.5贸易与投资·····························································································0131.6金融市场································································································018 第 2 章亚洲主要经济体经济政策展望···································025 2.1外部宏观政策··························································································0252.2财政政策································································································0272.3货币政策································································································032 中篇亚洲经济一体化进程 第 3 章亚洲经济体货物贸易一体化进程·······························037 3.1亚洲经济体货物贸易依存度仍保持在较高水平·················································0373.2亚洲工厂一体化························································································050 第 4 章亚洲经济体服务贸易一体化进程·······························067 4.1亚洲经济体服务贸易··················································································0674.2亚洲数字贸易发展现状···············································································0754.3亚洲重点服务行业依存度分析（以旅游业为例）··············································087 第 5 章亚洲经济体直接投资融合度········································097 5.1亚洲直接投资融合度现状············································································0975.2亚洲跨境投资趋势与展望············································································105 第 6 章亚洲经济体金融融合与发展········································111 6.1全球及亚洲经济体组合投资·········································································1116.2全球及亚洲跨境银行业状况·········································································119 下篇RCEP：塑造亚洲经济新未来 7.1RCEP：彰显开放合作的决心与能力······························································1317.2RCEP：推动区域经济一体化的重要力量························································1337.3RCEP：全面实施的突出挑战·······································································1427.4RCEP：共建高水平最大自贸区····································································147 表 1.12023 年第 3 季度—2024 年第 3 季度亚洲贸易进出口同比增速····················014表 1.22024 年亚洲地区部分经济体十年期国债收益率变动情况····························022表 2.12024 年部分亚洲经济体基准利率调整一览表···········································032表 3.12019—2023 年部分经济体亚洲出口依赖度指标········································039表 3.22023 年部分亚洲经济体间贸易依存度指标··············································041表 3.32023 年以亚洲经济体为最大货物贸易伙伴的经济体··································046表 3.42023 年部分亚太经济体间贸易流向矩阵················································048表 3.52023 年部分亚太经济体间贸易同比增速·················································049表 3.62023 年亚洲不同地区的商品出口额·······················································049表 3.72017—2023 年亚洲及主要经济体在全球价值链中的重要地位变化···············051表 3.82023 年 22 种零部件与亚洲主要经济体、EU27、USMCA、CPTPP 和 RCEP 的依存度·····························································································052表 3.92017—2023 年中国 22 种中间品贸易占世界贸易的比重·····························055表 3.102017—2023 年印度 22 种中间品贸易占世界贸易的比重·····························055表 3.112017—2023 年东盟 22 种中间品贸易占世界贸易的比重·····························056表 3.122017—2023 年墨西哥 22 种中间品贸易占世界贸易的比重··························057表 3.132023 年 22 种零部件与亚洲主要经济体的依存度指数································058表 3.142022 年 22 种零部件与亚洲主要经济体的依存度指数································059表 3.152023 年中国具有竞争优势的零部件产品清单···········································060表 3.162023 年亚洲工厂成员中间品贸易相互依存度指数·····································062表 3.172022 年亚洲工厂成员中间品贸易相互依存度指数·····································062表 3.182021 年亚洲工厂成员中间品贸易相互依存度指数·····································063表 4.12023 年 25 个经济体服务业出口总额及增加值出口总额·····························069表 4.22023 年 25 个经济体服务业进口总额及增加值进口总额····