博鳌亚洲论坛：亚洲经济前景及一体化进程——2024年度报告

亚洲经济前景及一体化进程 2024 年度报告 图书在版编目（CIP）数据 博鳌亚洲论坛亚洲经济前景及一体化进程2024年度报告.—北京：对外经济贸易大学出版社，2024.3ISBN 978-7-5663-2584-6 Ⅰ.①博…Ⅱ.Ⅲ.①经济一体化−研究报告−亚洲−2024Ⅳ.①F13 中国国家版本馆CIP数据核字（2024）第029878号 博鳌亚洲论坛亚洲经济前景及一体化进程 2024 年度报告 责任编辑：张俊娟 邮政编码：100029邮购电话：010−64492338发行部电话：010−64492342E-mail：uibep@126.com 出版发行：对外经济贸易大学出版社社址：北京市朝阳区惠新东街10号网址：www.uibep.com资源网址：www.uibepresources.com 印刷：北京博海升彩色印刷有限公司版次：2024年3月北京第1版印次：2024年3月第1次印刷定价：200.00元 成品尺寸：215mm×278mm印张：9.25字数：249千字ISBN 978-7-5663-2584-6 序言······································································IX 编写说明及致谢·······················································XI 写作团队成员························································XIII 缩略语··································································XV 第 1 篇亚洲经济前景与政策 第 1 章亚洲经济前景···································································003 1.1概述······································································································0031.2经济增长前景··························································································0041.3就业与收入前景·······················································································0071.4通胀压力有所缓解····················································································0101.5贸易与投资增长将会有所好转·····································································0121.6金融市场前景可期····················································································015 第 2 章亚洲主要经济体经济政策展望···································021 2.1外部宏观政策··························································································0212.2财政政策································································································0242.3货币政策································································································028 第 2 篇亚洲经济一体化进程 第 3 章亚洲经济体货物贸易一体化进程·······························035 3.1亚洲货物贸易一体化稳中有进······································································0353.2亚洲工厂一体化························································································047 第 4 章亚洲经济体服务贸易一体化进程·······························061 4.1亚洲地区服务贸易发展现状·········································································0614.2亚洲经济体服务贸易增加值·········································································0714.3亚洲数字贸易与数据跨境流动规制································································0784.4亚洲重点服务行业依存度分析（以旅游业为例）··············································085 第 5 章亚洲经济体直接投资融合度········································091 5.1亚洲直接投资融合度现状············································································0915.2亚洲跨境投资展望·····················································································097 第 6 章亚洲经济体金融融合与发展进程·······························101 6.1亚洲金融市场开放·····················································································1016.2亚洲跨境支付快速发展···············································································108 第 3 篇亚洲经济热点议题 第 7 章亚洲经济热点议题··························································117 7.1以 RCEP 升级应对世界经济碎片化的不利影响·················································1177.2 “全球南方”与全球经济治理········································································1207.3亚洲服务贸易协定发展···············································································1227.4人工智能的进展与挑战···············································································125 表 1.12022 年第 3 季度—2023 年第 3 季度亚洲贸易进出口同比增速····················013表 1.22023 年亚洲地区部分经济体十年期国债收益率变动情况····························018表 2.12022 年 1 月—2024 年 1 月美国通胀形势与美联储基准利率调整·················021表 2.22023 年部分亚洲经济体基准利率调整一览表···········································029表 3.12018—2022 年部分经济体的亚洲出口依赖度指标·····································037表 3.22022 年部分亚洲经济体间贸易依存度指标··············································038表 3.32022 年以亚洲经济体为最大货物贸易伙伴的经济体··································043表 3.42022 年部分亚太经济体间贸易流向矩阵·················································044表 3.52022 年部分亚太经济体间贸易同比增速·················································044表 3.62022 年亚洲不同地区的商品出口额·······················································045表 3.72017—2022 年亚洲及主要经济体全球价值链产品贸易依存度·····················048表 3.82022 年亚洲工厂成员中间品贸易相互依存度指数·····································050表 3.92021 年亚洲工厂成员中间品贸易相互依存度指数·····································051表 3.102017—2022 年中国 22 种零部件产品贸易依存度······································052表 3.112017—2022 年东盟 22 种零部件产品贸易依存度······································054表 3.122017—2022 年墨西哥 22 种零部件产品贸易依存度···································054表 3.132022 年亚洲工厂按出口总额排在前 22 位的零部件产品·····························056表 3.142021 年亚洲工厂按出口总额排在前 22 位的零部件产品·····························057表 3.152022 年 22 种零部件与亚洲主要经济体、EU27、USMCA 国家、CPTPP 国家和RCEP 国家的依存度···········································································058表 3.162021 年 22 种零部件与亚洲主要经济体、EU27、USMCA 国家、CPTPP 国家和RCEP 国家的依存度···········································································059表