遭受索马里气候冲击的风险

EXPOSURE TO CLIMATIC SHOCKSIN SOMALIAPublic Disclosure Authorized •Somalia is one of the most vulnerable countries in the world to climate change. Within thecountry, exposure to climate shocks largely follows the same spatial pattern as poverty.Poorer households were also more often affected.•After being negatively affected by drought, most households did not utilize any economiccoping mechanisms.•Increased economic opportunity, education, and access to social protection can helpimprove resilience. Somalia is highly exposed to climatic shocks. spatial pattern as poverty.Regional poverty ratesare higher in Central and Southern Somalia, whichcoincides with a larger share of the populationexposedtoclimateshock(drought,heat,andflooding).Thisislargelydrivenbyexposuretodrought,whichpredominatelyaffectsthepopulation in central and southern Somalia (Figure1). Exposure to heat only affects a few districts inthe north of Somalia, while exposure to flood is theleast common overall (Figure 2 and Figure 3). According to the Notre Dame Global AdaptationInitiative (NG-GAIN) ranking, Somalia is the mostvulnerable country in the world to climate change.¹This is demonstrated by the recent multi-seasondrought and the fact that average temperatureshave been increasing while the Gu rains have beendeclining in many parts of the country.² Exposure to shocks largely follows the samePublic Disclosure Authorized Figure 3: Share of PopulationExposed to Floods5 often reported being affected, with little differenceacross the consumption distribution (Figure 4 andFigure 5). This negative impact is supported byregression results, that show a larger deviationfrom the average level of vegetation results inlower consumption and higher poverty. Poorer households more often reported beingnegativelyaffectedbytherecentdrought.Regional poverty appears to be weakly correlatedwith a higher share of households being negativelyaffected, while poorer households in rural andurbanareasalsomoreoftenreportedbeingaffected.However,nomadichouseholdsmost Inresponsetothenegativeimpactofthedrought,mosthouseholdsdidnotutilizeeconomicresponses.Almost60percentofaffected households either did nothing or prayed.The most common economic response was torely on savings or assets (24 percent), althoughthis was more common among richer households.14 percent of households reduced consumption,while13percentreceivedassistance.Fewerhouseholds move part or the whole household (7percent), although this is more common amonghouseholds with less educated heads. However, inrecent years, climatic shocks (drought and flooding)have been the main drivers of displacement, withmost self-reported IDPs in the Somali IntegratedHousehold Budget Survey (SIHBS) being displaceddue to drought. the socioeconomic consequences of these impactsshouldbemoderated,suchasbyencouragingalternative livelihood options, increasing insuranceuptake,orutilizingadaptivesocialsafetynets.Lastly,considerdiversificationtowardssectorsthat are less vulnerable to these shocks. Whileeconomic growth can contribute to improvementsin resilience, this needs to be complimented byproactive and science-informed adaptation.⁶ Increased economic opportunity, education, andaccess to social protection can help improveresilience.Poorer regions tend to be more exposedto climatic shocks, and they have a larger share ofexposed households that lack characteristics thatmay help them deal with these shocks. Policies thathelp households increase their market income will,in part, help households be more resilient to climaticshocks while improving access to education andsocial protection, which will also benefit exposedhouseholds. The latter is also apparent in the smallshare of drought-affected households who reportedreceiving assistance in response to drought. Three broad methods can help promote economicresilience to climate change.Firstly, efforts can bemade to reduce the biophysical impact of climatechange and extremes, for instance, by growing cropvarieties that are more resilient to drought. Secondly,