美国相互关税对供应链的影响

Technology Implicationsof USreciprocal tariffs on supply chain On 3 April,theUSPresidentannounced 10% tariff on all imports, and additionalreciprocal tariffs will be applied on 60 countries(34% on China, 46% on Vietnam,26% on India,and20% ontheEU).Overall,webelievethescale and pace ofthe new tariffs arelarger andbroaderthan marketexpected.Below we accessthepotentialimpactforcomponent/ODM&OEM/brandsupplychain.Forcomponent(SP/PC/server),we expect limiteddirectimpact for suppliers sincemost do not export directly totheUS. ForOEM/ODMs,we expect direct impactonrelatednamesasmostSP/PC/IoTassemblyareconductedin China/Vietnam/Indiaand serverassemblyintheUS/Mexico/Taiwan.For brands, we expectApple will be impacted the most given its 40%+ US sales exposure andiPhoneproduction in China/India,buttherewillbevery little impactonXiaomigivenlimitedsmartphone/auto sales exposure intheUS.The broader impactis thattheUS consumer demandmaybe negativelyaffected by higher prices intheUS. Overall, we expect tech space will react negatively inthenear term, and wewould look for some quality names to accumulateafterpricecorrections. Stockswe preferon weaknessincludeXiaomi, AACTech, Sunny Optical,BYDE andQ-Tech. China Technology Sector Alex NG(852) 3900 0881alexng@cmbi.com.hk Hanqing LIlihanqing@cmbi.com.hk UStariffsarelarger and broaderthanexpected.TheUS announcedanimpacttariffof10%andadditionalreciprocaltariffsfor60countries,including 34% tariff on China, 46% on Vietnam, 36% on Thailand,32% onTaiwan, 26% on India and 20% ontheEU. Canada and Mexico will see 25%tariff,althoughUSMCA-compliant goodsare exempted.We estimate1)70%ofglobalPCand90% of iPhonearemadein China,2)60% of Samsungphonesand 50% of AirPods/iPad are manufacturedin Vietnam, and 3)60%+ of servers are made in Mexico/theUS/Taiwanby region. Component:Limiteddirectimpactbut potential indirect impact fromweaker US demand.As mostSP/PC/servercomponentsuppliers do notexport directly totheUS, we expect limited direct impactto relatednames,but indirect impactssuch as pricing pressure from downstream customersand weaker US consumer demandis unavoidable.US market accounted for~25%/10% of global PC/smartphone shipment in 2024. OEM/ODM:Directimpactfor productionbasesin China/Vietnam/India.Forservers,mostproductsshippedtotheUSareassembledintheUS/Mexico/Taiwan,while forPC/smartphone/IoT,mostassembly remainsprimarily in Chinaas well as Vietnam/India since 2019. Thus,we expectdirect impactfor nameswith sales exposure totheUS, including BYDE(iPad),Luxshare (AirPods/watch) andFIT Hon Teng (AirPods/Belkin). Brands:MixedimpactwithApplemost exposed.For PC,vendorshavemost production in China/Vietnam/Mexicoandwill be negativelyimpacted.For smartphone,we believe Apple will be impactedthemostgiventhat itsUS sales exposureis30%+ and mostiPhoneproductionarein China(90%)andIndia(10%). Samsung’sproduction aremostlyconducted in Vietnam,which will see 46%tariff.For Xiaomi,we estimate it haslimited directrevenueexposuretotheUSsmartphoneor automarketas disclosed(single-digit mix forAmerica). Focus Charts Disclosures& Disclaimers Analyst CertificationThe research analyst who is primary responsible for the content of this research report, in whole or in part, certifiesthatwith respect to the securitiesor issuerthat the analystcovered in thisreport: (1) all of the viewsexpressed accurately reflect hisor her personal viewsabout the subject securitiesor issuer; and (2)no part of his or her compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific viewsexpressed by that analyst in thisreport.Besides, the analyst confirmsthat neither the analyst nor his/her associates(asdefined in the code of conduct issued by The Hong Kong Securitiesand Futures Commission) (1) have dealt in or traded in thestock(s) covered in thisresearch report within 30 calendar daysprior to the date of issue of thisreport; (2) willdeal in or trade in the stock(s) covered in thisresearch report 3 business days after the date of issue of this report; (3)serve as an officer of any of the HongKong listed companiescovered in thisreport; and (4) have any financial interestsin the Hong Kong listed companiescoveredin thisreport. CMBIGM RatingsBUY : Stock with potential return of ov er 15% ov er next 12months: Stock with potential return of +15% to-10% ov er next 12 months: Stock with potential loss of ov er 10% ov er next 12 months: Stock is not rated byCMBIGM HOLDSELLNOT RATED :Industry expected to outperf orm therelev ant broad market benchmark ov er next 12 months:Industry expected to perf orm in-line with the relev ant broad market benchmark ov er next 12 months:Industry expected to underperf orm the relev antbroad market benchmark ov er next 12 months Address: 45/F, Champion Tower, 3 Garden Road, Hong Kong, Tel: (852) 3900 0888Fax: (852) 3900 0800 CMB InternationalGlobal MarketsLimited (“CMBIGM”) is a whollyowned subsidiary of CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (a wholly ownedsubsidiary