2024另类投资的过去、现在与未来研究报告

An AlternativePerspective Past, Present, and Future Contents 3Introduction Henry H. McVeyHead of Global Macro& Asset Allocation,CIO of KKR Balance Sheethenry.mcvey@kkr.com 4Analyzing the industry’s rapid growth8Our goal in writing this paper 12Section I: The Growth of Private Alternatives 15Sovereign Wealth Funds16Individual investors16Insurance balance sheets17The rise of market demand in Asia18Targeted offerings: Segmentation and innovation Saleena Goel Partner, Head of KKR Solutionssaleena.goel@kkr.com Dave McNellisdavid.mcnellis@kkr.com Racim Allouaniracim.allouani@kkr.comPaula Campbell Robertspaula.campbellroberts@kkr.comRebecca Ramseyrebecca.ramsey@kkr.com 22Section II: Why Are Specific Private Asset ClassesExpanding? 22Private Equity: A state of perpetual reinvention30Private Real Estate Equity: A new cycle emerges37Real Estate Debt: Navigating challenges and opportunities40Private Credit: Bank retrenchment and deleveraging helped tocreate opportunity45Private Infrastructure: A sizeable gap to fill Brian Leungbrian.leung@kkr.com Rachel Lirachel.li@kkr.comThibaud Monmirelthibaud.monmirel@kkr.com 51Section III: Understanding the Role of Private Altsin Diversified Portfolios Yifan Zhaoyifan.zhao@kkr.com Coco Qucoco.qu@kkr.comPatrycja Koszykowskapatrycja.koszykowska@kkr.com 51Private Alternatives risk/return profiles53The benefits of factor exposures in portfolio construction55A regime change calls for a different approach to asset allocation56Harvesting the illiquidity premium for various investment horizons Ezra Maxezra.max@kkr.com Miguel Montoyamiguel.montoya@kkr.com 59Section IV: Challenges Facing Private Alternatives Patrick Holtpatrick.holt@kkr.comKoontze Jangkoontze.jang@kkr.comJackson Batteyjackson.battey@kkr.comAlexandre Caducalexandre.caduc@kkr.com 59Can Private Alternatives perform well with higher interest rates?60Are private markets becoming crowded?62Does allocating to Private Alternatives create too much illiquidity risk?62Underestimation of risk in private markets63The importance of disciplined portfolio construction 64Section V: Conclusion An AlternativePerspective Past, Present, and Future From its modest beginning as an acquisition strategy largely known as ‘boot-strapping’, the Alternatives industry is now expected to grow to more than $24trillion in assets in 2028 from $15 trillion in 2022. While these headline numbersmay sound outsized in absolute terms, the current Alternatives market is actuallystill less than 11% of total global GDP and only 2.4% of total global financial assets.Importantly, though, there is no one Alternatives asset class. Rather, KKR’s 48years of experience in the Alternatives arena reinforces our view that each assetclass has unique characteristics in terms of expected return, risk, yield, liquidity,and capital requirements that require a closer look to better understand thedifferent benefits that each asset class can bring to a portfolio. Some of the assetclasses may serve more of a growth and capital appreciation purpose, whileothers may protect portfolios against inflation and/or provide stable income. Somestrategies may offer a combination. Moreover, the spectrum of characteristicsis wide and getting wider, as the industry finds new ways to deliver value to itsend-users, many of whom are looking for approaches to ensure a heightenedsense of retirement security. Against this backdrop, we think that sharpening one’sunderstanding of portfolio construction with and without Alternatives as well asacross the different categories of such investments is increasingly essential todelivering robust performance outcomes in the years ahead. However, beforelooking further into the future at the role of this distinct segment of the globalinvestment management industry, we also think understanding the past and thepresent is key to forming a proper ‘Alternative Perspective’. There are far better things ahead thanthe ones we leave behind. —C.S. Lewis, British writer, literary scholar, and Anglican lay theologian In 1976, Henry Kravis, George Roberts, and Jerome Kohl-berg left Bear Stearns and hung their shingle, openingKohlberg Kravis Roberts, or KKR. Relying on their own$120,000 seed investment and the help of outside dealsupporters along the way, they initially used an approachcalled ‘bootstrapping’, ultimately creating an investmentmanagement business that is now commonly referred toas Private Equity. Together, these three gentlemen not onlyhelped to establish the Alternatives asset class but alsotransformed the industry from its somewhat misunder-stood beginnings to one that now touches many parts ofthe global economy and is highly sought after by investors. Exhibit 1:The Size of the Alternatives Industry Is Poisedto Increase 2.5 Times by 2028 While the Private Alternatives universe is much broaderthan Private Equity, we are not totally surprised to hearinvestors and commentators use that term as a ‘catch-all’ phrase to describe all the