Clean Hydrogen for Road Transport in Developing Countries

Clean Hydrogen forRoad Transport inDeveloping Countries W E N X I N Q I A O , B I N YA M R E J A , R O H A N S H A HPublic Disclosure Authorized M A R C H2 0 2 5 © 2025 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank1818 H Street NWWashington DC 20433Telephone: 202-473-1000Internet:www.worldbank.org Some rights reserved. This work is a product of the staff of The World Bank with external contributions. The findings, interpretations,and conclusions expressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of The World Bank, its Board ofExecutive Directors, or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or currency of the data included in this workand does not assume responsibility for any errors, omissions, or discrepancies in the information, or liabilitywith respect to the use of or failure to use the information, methods, processes, or conclusions set forth. Theboundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply anyjudgment on the part of The World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement oracceptance of such boundaries. Nothing herein shall constitute or be construed or considered to be a limitation upon or waiver of the privilegesand immunities of The World Bank, all of which are specifically reserved. Rights and Permissions The material in this work is subject to copyright. Because The World Bank encourages dissemination of itsknowledge, this work may be reproduced, in whole or in part, for noncommercial purposes as long as fullattribution to this work is given. Attribution—Please cite the work as follows: “Wenxin Qiao, Binyam Reja, and Rohan Shah. 2025.Clean Hydrogenfor Road Transport in Developing Countries. Mobility and Transport Connectivity Series. © World Bank.” All queries on rights and licenses, including subsidiary rights, should be addressed to World Bank Publications,The World Bank Group, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA; fax: 202-522-2625; e-mail:pubrights@worldbank.org. Cover photo: © Scharfsinn/ShutterstockCover design:Circle Graphics, Inc. Contents FOREWORDvACKNOWLEDGMENTSviiEXECUTIVESUMMARYviiiABBREVIATIONSxvii CHAPTER 1: HYDROGENMOBILITY IN DEVELOPINGCOUNTRIES1 Hydrogen Economy in the Transport Sector2Fuel Cell vs. Competing Vehicle Technologies3Hydrogen Fuel Cell Electric Vehicles (FCEV)3Fuel Cell Electric vs. Hydrogen Internal Combustion Vehicles4Fuel Cell Electric vs. Battery Electric Vehicles6Opportunities and Challenges of Hydrogen Mobility8Vehicle Technology Improvements and Capital Cost Reduction8Market Opportunities9Challenges11Motivation for an Economic Assessment of Hydrogen Mobility12Organization of the Report12References12 CHAPTER 2: HYDROGENPRODUCTION AND COST ESTIMATION16 A Resurgence in Clean Hydrogen Power17Classification of Hydrogen Production Methods and Market Trends17Hydrogen Production Technologies and Costs19Hydrogen Liquefaction, Transmission, and Distribution21Estimates of Levelized Costs of Hydrogen and Levelized Costs of Refueling in Selected Countries24Levelized Cost of Hydrogen24Levelized Cost of Refueling27References30 CHAPTER 3: ECONOMICSOF HYDROGEN MOBILITY33 The Policy Questions34Overview of the Mobility Analysis Tool34Evaluating Hydrogen Mobility at the Country Level35Vehicle Capital Costs36Vehicle Operating Costs41Infrastructure Costs48Environmental Costs49Aggregating Across Cost Categories52Exploring the Sensitivity of Results58Conclusions61References62 CHAPTER 4: HYDROGENMOBILITY POLICY ANDRECOMMENDATIONS63 Pros and Cons of FCEV Adoption64Advantages of FCEVs64Disadvantages of FCEVs65Niche Market—Heavy-Duty Vehicles and Challenging Operating Environments69Regulatory Environment and Ecosystem for Hydrogen Mobility71Recommendations for Hydrogen Fuel Adoption741.Promote a Clean Hydrogen Economy for Energy Security and Job Creation742.Integrate Clean Hydrogen Pilot Projects into the Green Energy Transition743.Target Fuel Cell Vehicle Deployment in High-Impact Niche Markets754.Develop Enabling Policies and Regulations for a Clean Hydrogen Economy755.Adopt a Coherent Strategy for Hydrogen Mobility in the Green Energy Transition766.Conduct Country-Specific Economic Assessments for Hydrogen Mobility76References77 References92 Boxes BOX1.1.Range-Extending Fuel Cell Electric Vehicles (FCEVs) in China4BOX1.2.India’s Pursuit of Hydrogen Internal Combustion Engine Trucks5BOX1.3.Korea’s Hydrogen Mobility Policies9BOX2.1.Classification of Hydrogen and New European Commission Rules18BOX2.2.Liquefaction Refueling in Oakland, CA, United States23BOX4.1.India Presents an Ambitious Plan for Green Hydrogen67BOX4.2.Clean Energy Endowment Helps Chile Leapfrog in Hydrogen Economy68BOX4.3.Niche Markets for FCEVs69BOX4.4.The “Hydrogen Shot” in the United States72BOX4.5.Green Hydrogen Corridor73 Figures FIGURE1.1.Indicative Energy Intensity Trends for a Diesel, Battery Electric, and Fuel Cell