“美国例外论”走下神坛

“美国例外论”走下神坛 美股支撑因素发生深刻变化，短期或迎来技术性修复，长期走势仍存不确定性 姜越(852) 3911 8243verajiang@ccbintl.com 2024年，美股市场表现强劲，全年涨幅超过23%，标普500指数屡创新高，受益于经济韧性、科技行业高速增长、流动性改善及全球资本持续流入，“美国例外论”广受市场青睐。 然而，进入2025年，市场交易逻辑发生显著变化，整体上涨动能趋缓。 2025年2-3月，美股经历了一轮深度回调，表面上看，这一回调与2024年7-8月的调整类似，属于“衰退交易”，然而，如果将2025的回调视为2024年回调的镜像，则显然忽视了两者的深刻差别。 不同的回调前因：2024年7-8月的回调，主要因非农就业数据低于预期、ISM制造业指数走弱，以及美联储政策走向的不确定性，导致市场信心受挫。标普500指数最大回撤超8%，但在美联储迅速降息后，市场情绪回暖，约30天内收复全部跌幅。不同的回调深度：相比之下，2025年2-3月的回调更为剧烈，标普500指数跌幅超过10%，跌势明显深于2024年7-8月。本轮回调的内在逻辑：本轮回调的触发因素更具复杂性和深远影响。特朗普政府反复调整贸易关税政策，引发全球供应链不稳定，加剧市场忧虑。此外，美国就业市场持续走弱，消费支出增速放缓，美联储未来降息幅度不确定，种种因素叠加，导致市场避险情绪升温，科技股遭遇大规模抛售，资金加速流出。 赵文利(852) 3911 8279cliffzhao@ccbintl.com 此次回调的本质，反映出支撑2025年初美股的关键因素正在发生深层次转变。2024年美股的上涨逻辑建立在稳健的经济增长、科技行业的高成长性、宽松的货币环境以及全球资本持续流入的基础之上。然而，2025年市场逻辑发生重大变化： 经济增长放缓，衰退风险上升：2025年一季度GDP增长预期被持续下调，消费者支出疲软，企业盈利能力下降，使得市场信心受到挑战。政策不确定性增加：特朗普政府的贸易保护主义政策使得全球资本流动发生变化，投资者对美国市场的长期吸引力存疑。科技股估值调整：DeepSeek等新兴技术的突破正在改变全球科技行业的竞争格局，削弱了美股科技板块的长期优势，令市场对该行业的估值产生新一轮调整。全球资本流向变化：随着欧洲和亚洲市场经济复苏迹象明显，部分国际资金开始流向这些市场，降低了美股的相对吸引力。 短期展望：未来几个月，美股短期内可能在5500点附近震荡，并出现技术性反弹。然而，由于市场信心尚未恢复，预计反弹力度有限。投资者需关注以下因素： 美联储货币政策：如果美联储在未来会议上释放鸽派信号，或调整资产负债表缩减计划(QT)，市场情绪有望修复。政策面动向：特朗普政府若调整贸易和外交政策，减少市场不确定性，或将缓解市场压力。经济数据表现：若非农就业、消费者支出数据改善，可能对市场构成支撑。 全年展望与投资策略：我们将2025年标普500指数高点预测从6700点下调至6400点，市场整体上行空间受限，投资者需采取更为稳健的配置策略： 短期关注关键支撑位：如果标普500指数跌破5300点，建议进一步降低风险敞口，以防范更深层次的回调风险。优化资产配置，降低美股敞口：市场波动性加剧，投资者应减少对高波动性资产的依赖，增持防御性资产。增配避险资产：在市场不确定性较高的环境下，黄金等避险资产的配置价值上升，可作为部分对冲手段。关注全球市场机会：随着欧洲和亚洲市场的复苏，投资者可适度调整全球资产配置，关注中国市场的结构性投资机会（如科技与消费）。 CCBI Securities | Research Chill, Baby, Chill – The fall of Americanexceptionalism US market fundamentals have shifted; a short-term rebound is possible,but long-term uncertainty remains Vera Jiang(852) 3911 8243verajiang@ccbintl.com In 2024, the US stock market performed strongly, with the S&P 500 index surging over 23% for the yearand reaching record highs. The rally was driven by economic resilience, rapid growth in the technologysector,improved liquidity conditions,and sustained global capital inflows.As a result,the"USexceptionalism" narrative gained widespread traction in the market. However, entering 2025, the market's trading logic has undergone a significant shift, leading to aslowdown in overall upward momentum. Between February and March 2025, US equities experienced a deep correction. On the surface, thiscorrection appears similar to the pullback observed in July-August 2024, categorized as a "recessiontrade"; however, it would be a mistake to consider the 2025 correction as a mirror copy of thecorrection in 2024: Cliff Zhao(852) 3911 8279cliffzhao@ccbintl.com Different antecedents:The market downturn in July-August 2024 was primarily triggered byweaker-than-expected non-farm payroll data, a declining ISM Manufacturing Index, anduncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve's policy direction. The S&P 500 experienced apeak-to-trough decline of over 8%. However, a swift rate cut by the Fed helped restore marketconfidence, leading to a rapid rebound. Losses recovered within approximately 30 days. Difference in severity:In contrast, the February-March 2025 correction was far more severe, withthe S&P 500 dropping over 10%, a significantly steeper decline than in mid-2024. Different implications:The triggers for the 2025 correction were more complex and had morefar-reaching implications. The Trump administration's erratic tariff adjustments have fueledinstability in global supply chains, exacerbating market concerns. Additionally, the US labormarket has shown continued weakness, consumer spending growth has slowed, and the extentof future Fed rate cuts remains uncertain, leading to heightened risk aversion. These factorshave collectively intensified the sell-off in technology stocks and accelerated capital outflows. At its core, the 2025 market correction reflects a profound shift in the key factors that had supportedUS equities up to the beginning of 2025. In 2024, the market rally was built on solid economic growth,the high-growth trajectory of the technology sector, an accommodative monetary environment, andstrong international capital inflows. However, in 2025, market dynamics have changed significantly: Slower economic growth and rising recession risks:GDP growth forecasts for 1Q 2025 havebeencontinuously downgraded.Weak consumer spending and deteriorating corporateearnings have dampened market confidence.Greaterpolicy uncertainty:The Trump administration's protectionist trade policies havedisrupted global capital flows, raising concerns about the long-term attractiveness of the USstock market.Reassessment of technology stock valuations:Breakthroughs in emerging technologies, suchasDeepSeek,have reshaped the competitive landscape of the global tech industry,challenging the long-term dominance of US tech stocks. This has triggered a new round ofvaluation corrections in the US technology sector.Shifts in global capital flows: With Europe and Asia showing signs of economic recovery,international