人形机器人（6）：特斯拉、宇树与Figure链的供应链角逐

Humanoid Robots (6) EquitiesIndustrials WhosuppliestoTesla,UnitreeandFigureAl? + Figure Al's Helix Vision-Language-Action (VLA) model greatlyincreases training efficiency vs traditional imitation training Helen Fang'The angengsnd Sheanghaitinng CoinLinbdad of ndustrials Reseerch, Asia Pacifiesbc.coff,lk + Drives & motors, reducers, ball screws and bearings account for55% of humanoid BOM, followed by sensors and Al chips Kenneth Chin* + Lack of pure listed humanoid players drives market interest in Jenter Pan'GuangzhouAssociate Model innovation offers cheaper and quicker training: In Exhbit 1, we weigh costreduction potential in trining, In tracitional imitation treining, c500 hours of trainingdata is nceded for a robot tolearn a single task (for example, foiding ciothes), Thesame processes need to be repeated for every new tssk, making it hard to do tmore sfticient training. Helix can pick up any small household objects that it haswithout specific Issk tine-tuning. The entire Helix modelis trained using only 500never encounlered before, using only one pre-trained neutral network weighting.hours of supervised dataset, similar ta the training tifne required for a single taskpreviousiy. Helix achieves this through bridging previously separated models for1) decision making (using Visual Language Model, VLM) and 2) rcbot action (throughimitistion learning), We believe the new Helix VLA model helps humansids learn moretasks faster. Humanoids achieve a kanger battery lfe by utlising ckoud cornputation,which we believe is still a key bottieneck for humanoid commercialisation. Humanoid cost and market size scenario estimates: Using public announcementsfrorn leadrng hurmaroid players as a berchurark, we conducted a scenario analysis onhumaroid robct mass producion and estinate the iriarket to grow from USDgoQm in2025e to USD73bn in 2034e in our base cae [CAGR 83%, Exhibit 3), We beleve thecast willdecine frorn cUSD5Bk per unit to cUSD20k in 2032e, or a 11% per annurmdecline frorn 2025 to 2034e. In the past, intustrial robots coest carre down c7% p.a.between 2006 and 2017. Tesia's averrge CoGS per vehicle produced also tieclined10% pa. from 2017 to 2024, including the effec from product mix (Exhibit 2). We believsas production ramps up, strerg aconories ot scale wil quicdy drive down ccsts. Component value breakdown and key suppliers: Except for Al Chips/software (15%of Bil of Materials, EOM), and sensors (17% of BOM), hardware corrponents includingdrive, motors, reducers and ball screws corribined hae thie tighest value share [55%of BO) in humaroids. Given the humanoids have not yet entered mass productionmost cormpanies have only deivered samples or smal batch producions, and webelieve the supply chain s sil subject to change. Neverthekess, we idertify severalidentify suppliers 1s Unitree (private) and Tesla (TSLA, CMP USD281.95, Recuce), aswell ss ell relatad hurmanoid component corrpenies (see Exhibits 5-8). HSBC Global Investment Summit 25 - 27 March 2025 This is our latest report on the Automation theme, f you want to subscribe tcany of our nine big themes, click here. Issuer cfreport:The Hanguong and SherghaiRanking Corporstion Limiied Disclosures & Disclaimer This report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications inthe Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it. View HSBC Global Rescarch at:https:/www.research.hsbc.com Contents Humanoid robot market size andproduction cost estimates 3 Humanoid robot suppliers andcost composition4 Key humanoid robot players Optimus: Tesla's humanoid robot7 Other relevant reports Disclosure appendix9 Disclaimer12 Training method comparison Humanoidrobot marketsizeandproductioncostestimates 2,Industrial robot and Ev historical cost reduction Humanoid robot suppliers and cost composition Key humanoid robot players Optimus:Tesla's humanoid robot Tesla launchnd the pratotypa of its humanaid robot, which it calls Optimus' or*Tasla Bof, inSepterriber 2022. It wil be able to coriduct dangerous, repeftive, and boring tasks in faclories.Tesla Bot will have 28 joint achuators and 12 hand actuators 40 in total. The robot is 173cm high8km/h. In sddiion, it has s cary cepacty of 20.4kg, deadlit waight of 68kg, and arm exland Iftlor the Gen 1 model and 17acm for the Gen 2 model, weighis 73kg, and wil have a top speed ofweight of 4.5kg. The robot will use Tesla's own system on a chip (SOC) and take advantage ofTesla's full self-drving (FSD) cspabilty for cormputer vision and nsvigefion to create Al for generel-purpose robofics, Tesla'e CEO Elon Musk said he aims to produce several housand units cfOptimus by enc-2025 with a tsrget 1o increese production to 50-100k units in 2026 - Aulcmoble assemt-Real end ecommerce-Homl anc to,nism-Maie ard akertinmcm- Food and becragc-Healrcare- Hame services Otherrelevantreports Hamgnaid Robos (5) -(s mg88 amo/ctio7 comim in 20252, 25 Jsn 2025Humanoid Rabors (4) - Nw arena op