碳酸锂周度报告：累库压力渐增，关注仓单注册情况

陈祎萱CFA高级分析师（有色金属）从业资格号：F3074710投资咨询号：Z0017769Tel:8621-63325888-2722Email:yixuan.chen@orientfutures.com 碳酸锂：看跌2025年3月2日 上周锂盐价格承压下行。LC2503收盘价环比-1.7%至7.32万元/吨，LC2505收盘价环比-1.9%至7.52万元/吨；溧阳中联金碳酸锂近月合约收盘价环比-0.3%至7.5万元/吨。周内氢氧化锂价格微降，SMM粗颗粒及微粉型电池级氢氧化锂均价环比-0.4%、-0.5%至7.02、7.54万元/吨。电工价差环比收窄至0.20万元/吨。电池级氢氧化锂较碳酸锂价格贴水环比略收窄至0.51万元/吨。 2月以来，供应端增量持续兑现，盐厂检修结束复产、江西高成本产能复产爬坡对应国内碳酸锂周度产量持续攀升，同时智利、阿根廷高发运也将对应2-3月到港量的增加。需求端则暂无超预期表现，2、3月正极环节排产的波动更多源自季节性因素，平滑至日均后表需大体持稳。供应持续爬坡、而需求表现持平，年后锂盐市场过剩压力逐步凸显，现货市场累库压力也使得基差承压运行、贸易商交仓单意愿边际回升。 基本面角度，3月国内碳酸锂累库压力显著、对价格指引依旧偏空。后续需重点关注两方面：当前矿价表现仍较为坚挺，对应锂盐加工环节利润收缩，近期矿价出现边际松动迹象，后续需持续关注矿端成交的边际变化；此外，仓单注册量一定程度上是库存更显性化的表现，价格下方空间或部分取决于仓单生成速度。 ★风险提示 如何理解碳酸锂的春季躁动？2024/03/29过剩已至，产业链如何出清？2023/12/28博弈加剧，不破不立2023/09/29渐趋理性，波动收敛2023/06/29 下游消费不及预期，新增产能建设进度与企业预期有所出入。 目录 1、累库压力渐增，关注仓单注册情况...................................................................................................................................42、周内行业要闻回顾...............................................................................................................................................................53、产业链重点高频数据监测...................................................................................................................................................53.1、资源端：锂精矿现货报价仍坚挺....................................................................................................................................53.2、锂盐：期现价格偏强震荡................................................................................................................................................63.3、下游中间品：材料端报价回落........................................................................................................................................93.4、终端：1月中国新能源车渗透率略有回落...................................................................................................................104、风险提示.............................................................................................................................................................................11 图表目录 图表1：锂产业链重点高频价格监测............................................................................................................................................................4图表2：锂精矿现货均价................................................................................................................................................................................6图表3：MtCattlin锂精矿生产利润...............................................................................................................................................................6图表4：GFEX碳酸锂主力合约收盘价（LC2505）....................................................................................................................................6图表5：GFEX碳酸锂期限结构....................................................................................................................................................................6图表6：国内碳酸锂现货均价及电工价差....................................................................................................................................................7图表7：碳酸锂基差（SMM电碳现货均价-GFEX近月）..........................................................................................................................7图表8：溧阳中联金碳酸锂主力合约收盘价................................................................................................................................................7图表9：智利碳酸锂出口均价........................................................................................................................................................................7图表10：国内氢氧化锂现货均价..................................................................................................................................................................8图表11：海内外氢氧化锂价差......................................................................................................................................................................8图表12：国内电池级氢氧化锂-碳酸锂价差.................................................................................................................................................8图表13：锂盐厂理论生产利润......................................................................................................................................................................8图表14：磷酸铁锂价格走势..........................................................................................................................................................................9图表15：磷酸铁锂电芯（动力型）均价......................................................................................................................................................9图表16：三元材料价格走势..........................................................................................................................................................................9图表17：523方形三元电芯（动力型）均价..............................................................................................................................................