港股熊牛切换走向深化：新质生产力助力打开港股长期上升空间

港股熊牛切换走向深化 新质生产力助力打开港股长期上升空间 赵文利，PhD/CFA 自1月13日以来，香港股市迎来了一轮强劲上涨行情，DeepSeek主题的火热表现点燃了投资者的风险偏好，令市场情绪显著回暖。截至2月21日，恒生指数累计上涨25.6%，而恒生科技指数更是飙升37.5%，宣告港股自去年9月后再次踏入技术性牛市。本轮港股上涨更具鲜明的结构性特征：科技板块成为当之无愧的领涨主力，而传统板块则相对滞后。 (852) 3911 8279cliffzhao@ccbintl.com 从资金层面来看，本轮行情主要由交易性资金推动，即便是南向资金，虽然整体上呈现逢低买入的长线倾向，但在高位时同样会选择获利了结。由于交易性资金追求短期收益，快进快出的特征决定了市场一旦出现调整信号，这部分资金或会迅速撤离，从而加剧市场波动。随着市场进入超买区间，交易性资金的获利了结压力将不可避免地增大，市场回调的风险亦随之积聚。而国际Long-only资金正在重新审视中国市场的投资价值：去年9月的踏空让他们意识到中国市场的可交易性，而本轮行情则可能促使他们对中国市场的看法从可交易性转向可投资性。如果这些资金在调整后大规模回流，将进一步支撑港股的长期上涨。 邹炜，CFA(852) 3911 8246wilsonzou@ccbintl.com 从政策环境来看，三月份的“两会”或许难以全面满足市场对于大规模刺激的高预期。决策层短期内可能更倾向于保持政策的连贯性与稳健性，而非出台新的大规模刺激举措。相较于短期内财政赤字或特别国债等数字指标的变化，深层次的改革政策所释放的持续性影响更值得市场与投资者深度观察与评估。此外，美国方面的潜在不确定性依然存在，包括中美经贸磋商以及特朗普政府可能祭出的关税措施。如果四月份美国对等关税落地，欧洲或有相应反制行动，全球贸易摩擦升级的风险随之上升，从而为市场带来一定的系统性压力。 本轮港股行情以DeepSeek主题为核心驱动，标志着港股上涨的底层逻辑正在发生深刻变化。尽管短期内市场面临超买压力，需注意交易节奏，但港股长期上升空间已被打开。我们决定上调今年恒生指数目标价至25,000点，恒生科技指数至6,300点，作为我们的基准情形。科技板块作为领涨主力，受益于AI赋能和新质生产力的政策支持，估值重估刚刚开始。 市场下一阶段的表现将主要取决于3月份两会政策能否提供进一步催化剂，以及3月中下旬年报业绩表现。从宏观基本面和企业盈利来看，港股要实现估值扩张和盈利复苏的无缝衔接仍有一定难度，同时考虑到估值修复空间以及后续4月份特朗普对等关税落地等事件窗口，3月上旬到4月初市场或面临较为明显的获利回吐压力，也将提供较好的买入机会。 CCBI Securities | Research Bear-to-bull Transition is Deepening New quality productive forces unlock Hong Kong market upside potential Since 13 January, the Hong Kong stock market has been experiencing a strong rally drivenby the DeepSeek theme, which has reignited investor risk appetite while boosting marketsentiment. By 21 February, the Hang Seng Index had risen by a cumulative 25.6%, and theHang Seng Tech Index had soared to 37.5%, signaling that the Hong Kong market had entereda technical bull market for the first time since last September.The current round of marketgains in Hong Kong has a notable structural characteristic, namely the fact the technologysector has taken a clear lead while the more traditional sectors are lagging behind. Cliff Zhao, PhD/CFA(852) 3911 8279cliffzhao@ccbintl.com From a perspective of capital flows,the rally has been propelled by trading-oriented funds.Even southbound funds, which in the past tended to buy on dips, have this time opted tostandby in the hopes of taking a profit at higher levels.Because trading-oriented moneypursues short-term returns with a rapid turnover mindset, any indication of a marketcorrection could trigger swift outflows, thereby exacerbating market volatility. As the marketenters overbought territory, profit-taking pressure from these funds is bound to increase,heightening the risk of a pullback. Wilson Zou, CFA(852) 3911 8246wilsonzou@ccbintl.com International long-only funds, meanwhile, are reassessing the investment value of theChinese market. Missing out on the rally last September made them realize its tradability.The latest round may see a shift in view from one that views the market as being merely“tradable” to one that sees the market as truly “investable”.If international long-only fundsfunds return on a large scale after a correction, they could provide further support to HongKong market’s long-term advance. On the policy front, we fear the “Two Sessions” in March may not fully meet the market’shigh expectations for substantial stimulus. In the near term, policymakers seem inclined tomaintain continuity and stability rather than roll out major new stimulus measures.Instead offocusing solely on near-term numerical targets—such as fiscal deficit levels or specialgovernment bond issuance—we believe market participants and investors would be betterserved paying closer attention to the effects of reform initiatives. Meanwhile, uncertainties over potential decisions by the US persist. Implications from Sino-US trade negotiations and possible tariff measures by the Trump administration are at theforefront of policymakers’ minds. Should reciprocal tariffs take effect in April, Europe couldimplement corresponding countermeasures, increasing the risk of escalating global tradefrictions and introducing additional systemic pressure to the market. The current round of gains by Hong Kong market is being driven by the DeepSeekphenomenon, and portends to a profound shift taking place in the underlying logic governingthe market.Although the market has entered an overbought zone where it is likely to rest inthe short term (demanding cautious trading), long-term upside appears to be opening up.Accordingly, we raise our baseline target for this year’s Hang Seng Index to 25000 pointsand our target for the Hang Seng Tech Index to 6300 points.Momentum is being driven bythe technology sector, which stands to benefit from AI-driven innovation and policy supportfor new quality productive forces. Its valuation re-rating has only just begun, in our view. Market performance in the next phase will depend on whether or not the Two Sessionsconference in March delivers additional catalysts. Another factor will be corporate earningsresults due in mid-to-late March. From the standpoint of macroeconomic and corporateearnings, a seamless transitio