豆类周报：豆类先扬后抑 节前冲高回调

混沌天成研究院 白杰 执业资格号: F3025168 电话： 010-63397681 E-mail：baijie@chaosqh.com 豆类先扬后抑 节前冲高回调 2017年1月22日（豆类周报） 要点回顾 期货市场概况 现货市场概况 天气概况 相关汇率 后市行情展望 要点回顾 1.USDA发布出口检验量报告，截至1月12日的一周，美豆出口检验量为1,409,466吨，去年同期为1,397,253吨，对中国装运量862,472吨，尽管出口在下降，但是依然要高于去年同期 2.NOPA发布压榨月报显示，12月份NOPA会员企业压榨的大豆数量为1.60176亿蒲式耳，低于市场预期和上月压榨水平，高于去年同期水平 3.消息称，阿根廷大豆主产区降雨过量，严重影响了当期大豆生长，阿根廷大豆产量不确定性加剧，市场预期阿根廷大豆种植面积将会下降 4.阿根廷罗萨里奥谷物交易所将大豆产量预估从5,440万吨下调至5,290万吨，因天气状况恶劣，并将大豆种稙面积预估从1,930万英亩下调至1,920万英亩 5.1月18日，国家临储菜油拍卖98801吨，成交98801吨，成交率100%，本次拍卖全部为13年产临储菜油；最高成交价为7600元/吨，较上周提高250元；最低成交价为5800元/吨，与上周持平；成交均价为6777元/吨，较上周提高228元/吨 期货市场概况 代码名称现价涨跌涨跌幅振幅最高最低5日涨跌幅60日涨跌幅A1705.DCE豆一17054238-16-0.38%0.97%42464205-1.10%14.73%M1705.DCE豆粕17052942-3-0.10%1.13%294829155.37%6.36%Y1705.DCE豆油17056978-26-0.37%0.77%699869441.42%3.87%SH17E.CBT大豆17031067.25-3-0.28%1.05%1071.2510605.38%9.32%SK17E.CBT大豆17051075.5-3-0.28%1.04%1079.51068.255.03%9.35%SMH17E.CBT豆粕1703348.90.70.20%1.84%351344.69.44%14.92%SMK17E.CBT豆粕1705350.90.60.17%1.77%352.8346.69.28%14.79%BOH17E.CBT豆油170335.14-0.3-0.85%1.21%35.5535.12-0.09%0.83%BOK17E.CBT豆油170535.37-0.31-0.87%1.23%35.7935.35-0.11%0.97%P1705.DCE棕榈油17056252-38-0.60%1.02%628062161.33%6.80%OI705.CZC菜油17057168-52-0.72%0.95%719471260.73%1.53%RM705.CZC菜粕17052433-7-0.29%1.27%243824071.97%2.49%数据来源:Wind资讯 混沌天成研究院 截至时间2017年1月22日 8:00 期货市场概况 8009001000110012001300140015003000350040004500500055002016-01-202016-02-202016-03-202016-04-202016-05-202016-06-202016-07-202016-08-202016-09-202016-10-202016-11-202016-12-202017-01-20大豆内外盘价格连豆（连续）CBOT大豆（连续）3250345036503850405042504450-600-400-2000200400600大豆基差（活跃）基差连豆（活跃）大豆现货均价30003200340036003800400042004400-800.00-600.00-400.00-200.000.00200.00400.00大豆基差（连续）基差连豆结算价（连续）大豆现货均价30003200340036003800400042004400-400-300-200-1000100200300400500连豆跨期价差跨期价差（活跃-连续）连豆收盘价（活跃）连豆结算价（连续） 期货市场概况 2002503003504004505005502000250030003500400045002016-01-202016-02-202016-03-202016-04-202016-05-202016-06-202016-07-202016-08-202016-09-202016-10-202016-11-202016-12-202017-01-20豆粕内外盘价格走势连豆粕（连续）CBOT豆粕（连续）020040060080010001200200022002400260028003000320034003600380040002016-01-202016-02-202016-03-202016-04-202016-05-202016-06-202016-07-202016-08-202016-09-202016-10-202016-11-202016-12-202017-01-20豆粕基差（活跃）基差连豆粕（活跃）豆粕现货均价-300-200-10001002003004005006002000250030003500400045005000豆粕基差（连续）基差连豆粕结算价（连续）豆粕现货均价-850-650-450-250-50150350200025003000350040004500豆粕跨期价差跨期价差（活跃-连续）豆粕收盘（活跃）豆粕结算（连续） 期货市场概况 2527293133353739414345500052005400560058006000620064006600680070002016-01-202016-02-202016-03-202016-04-202016-05-202016-06-202016-07-202016-08-202016-09-202016-10-202016-11-202016-12-202017-01-20豆油内外盘价格连豆油（连续）CBOT豆油（连续）500055006000650070007500-600-400-2000200400600豆油基差（活跃）基差连豆油收盘价（活跃）现货均价400045005000550060006500700075008000-300-200-1000100200300400500豆油基差（连续）基差连豆油结算价（连续）现货平均价500055006000650070007500-300-200-1000100200300400500豆油跨期价差跨期价差（活跃-连续）豆油收盘（活跃）豆油结算（连续） 期货市场概况 15001700190021002300250027002900-300-200-1000100200300400500菜粕基差（活跃）基差菜粕收盘价（活跃）菜粕现货均价15001700190021002300250027002900-200-1000100200300400菜粕基差（连续）基差菜粕现货均价菜粕结算价（连续）15001700190021002300250027002900-300-200-1000100200300400500菜粕跨期价差跨期价差菜粕收盘（活跃）菜粕收盘（连续）1500200025003000350040000100200300400500600700800豆/菜粕期货价差价差（豆粕-菜粕）豆粕收盘（活跃）菜粕收盘（活跃） 期货市场概况 50005500600065007000750080008500-400-300-200-1000100200300400500600菜油基差（活跃）基差菜油收盘（活跃）菜油现货均价5000550060006500700075008000-500-300-100100300500700菜油基差（连续）基差菜油结算（连续）菜油现货均价5000550060006500700075008000-500-300-100100300500700900菜油跨期价差跨期价差（活跃-连续）菜油收盘（活跃）菜油结算（连续） 期货市场概况 150020002500300035004000300035004000450050005500600065007000750080002016-01-202016-02-202016-03-202016-04-202016-05-202016-06-202016-07-202016-08-202016-09-202016-10-202016-11-202016-12-202017-01-20棕榈油内外价格走势棕榈油收盘价（连续）BMD毛棕榈油结算价（连续）400045005000550060006500700075008000-400-200020040060080010001200棕榈油基差（活跃）基差棕榈油收盘（活跃）棕榈油现货均价(24度)3500400045005000550060006500700075008000-20002004006008001000棕榈油基差（连续）基差棕榈油结算（连续）棕榈油现货均价(24度)010002000300040005000600070008000900010000-1000-500050010001500棕榈油价差跨期价差（活跃-收盘）棕榈油结算（连续）棕榈油收盘（活跃） 期货市场概况 40004500500055006000650070007500800085009000油脂期货价格走势豆油菜籽油棕榈油-200300800130018002014-01-202014-03-202014-05-202014-07-202014-09-202014-11-202015-01-202015-03-202015-05-202015-07-202015-09-202015-11-202016-01-202016-03-202016-05-202016-07-202016-09-202016-11-202017-01-20油脂间期货价差Y-POI-POI-Y-300.00200.00700.001,200.001,700.002,200.002,700.002014-01-202014-03-202014-05-202014-07-202014-09-202014-11-202015-01-202015-03-202015-05-202015-07-202015-09-202015-11-202016-01-202016-03-202016-05-202016-07-202016-09-202016-11-202017-01-20油脂间现货价差豆-棕菜-豆菜-棕 现货市场概况 250030003500400045005000550060006500大豆现货价格走势国产豆现货均价广东黄埔港天津港青岛港美豆到港成本南美豆到港成本-1000-500050010001500大豆压榨利润大连天津山东江苏广东黑龙江（国产豆）020000040000060000080000010000001200000140000062000006400000660000068000007000000720000074000007600000780000080000002016-01-202016-02-202016-03-202016-04-202016-05-202016-06-202016-07-202016-08-202016-09-202016-10-202016-11-202016-12-202017-01-20大豆港口库存港口消耗（进口豆）港口库存（进口豆）010203040506070大豆油厂开机率 现货市场概况 0200004000060