其他非利息收入增长强劲，资产负债规模稳步增长

中國銀行(3988.HK) 其他非利息收入增長強勁，資產負債規模穩步增長中國|銀行| 9Jan2025 公司簡介 增持現價3.79HKD(現價截至1月3日)目標價4.43HKD(+12.7%) 中國銀行(3988.HK)在中國內地及境外64個國家和地區設有機構，中銀香港、澳門分行擔任當地的發鈔行。中國銀行擁有比較完善的全球服務網絡，形成了以公司金融、個人金融和金融市場等商業銀行業務為主體，涵蓋投資銀行、直接投資、證券、保險、基金、飛機租賃、資產管理、金融科技、金融租賃等多個領域的綜合金融服務體系，為客戶提供「一點接入、全球響應、綜合服務」的金融解決方案。 Q3業績點評 2024年前三季度，公司實現營業收入4791億元（人民幣，下同），同比增加1.74%；稅後利潤為1875億元，同比增长0.53%；實現歸母淨利潤1758億元，同比增加0.52%；基本每股收益為0.55元。 主要股東% 中央匯金投資有限責任公司64.13% 其他非利息收入增長強勁 2024年前三季度公司淨利息收入為3360億元，同比減少4.81%，主要由於淨息差較上半年小幅收至1.41%，因美元進入降息週期減少了外幣對淨息差貢獻。未來存量按揭利率和LPR下調等因素將繼續對境內資產收益率施加壓力，但美聯儲降息放緩可能改善海外資產收益率壓力。公司非利息收入為1431億元，同比增加21.32%，顯示非利息業務增長強勁，其中手續費及傭金收支淨額為607億元，同比下降3.93%，對比2024H1降幅收窄，主要受資本市場波動影響；其他非利息收入（主要包括淨交易收益、金融資產轉讓淨收益及其他營業收入）合計為824億元，同比增加50.43%，主要由於投資收益同比增長114.2%。公司營業費用為1727億元，同比增加10.13%。公司資產減值損失為858億元，同比下降5.78%，其中信用減值損失為857億元，同比下降5.86%。 資產负债規模穩步增長，撥備覆蓋率處於較好水準 截至2024年9月底，公司資產總計為340690億元，比上年末增加5.05%。負債合計311950億元，比上年末增加5.12%。客戶存款總額為237106億元，比上年末增加3.51%。其中公司存款為115126億元，個人存款為114768億元，發行存款證及其他存款為3861億元。资产负债结构较为稳定，存款占负债比例为76.01%，对比上年末减少1.18个百分比。客戶貸款總額为214359億元，比上年末增加7.38%。其中企業貸款為145965億元，個人貸款為67833億元。集團主要風險指標表現穩健，風險抵補能力持續提升，不良貸款總額为2700億元，不良貸款率為1.26%，比上年末下降0.01個百分點，不良貸款撥備覆蓋率為198.86%，比上年末上升7.20個百分點，接近200.00%，處於較好的水準，有效证明公司不良處置力度的加大。 輝立證券研究員 李曉然(+852 2277 6535)margaretli@phillip.com.hk陶然(+852 2277 6515)megantao@phillip.com.hk 估值及投資建議 近12個月公司股息率為6.84%，具有高分紅特徵。公司保持領先的全球化優勢，基本面整體表現較為穩定，考慮到非息收入增長略好於此前預期，我們看好公司的中長期成長。但是，考慮到人民幣貶值風險對港股影響較大，以及公司主要客戶為實體經濟企業，業績可能會受到美國關稅影響。因此，我們預計公 司24-26年 歸 母 淨 利 潤 為2368/2408/2494億 元 ， 預 測EPS分 別 為0.75/0.77/0.80元，當前股價對應PB分別為0.44/0.41/0.38x。整體而言，我們給予公司2024年0.5倍PB，對應每股目標價4.43港元，給予“增持”評級。 圖表： 風險因素：海外宏觀經濟影響公司資產品質、利率風險、信貸風險。 財務資料: 現價截至2025年1月3日匯率：人民幣/港元=0.9324來源：PSHK Est. PHILLIP RESEARCH STOCK SELECTION SYSTEMS We do not base our recommendations entirely on the above quantitative return bands.We consider qualitative factors like (but not limited to) astock's risk reward profile, market sentiment, recent rate of share price appreciation, presence or absence of stock price catalysts, and speculativeundertones surrounding the stock, before making our final recommendation GENERAL DISCLAIMER This publication is prepared by Phillip Securities (Hong Kong) Ltd (“Phillip Securities”). By receiving or reading this publication, you agree to be bound by the terms and This publication shall not be reproduced in whole or in part, distributed or published by you for any purpose. Phillip Securities shall not be liable for any direct orconsequential loss arising from any use of material contained in this publication. The information contained in this publication has been obtained from public sources which Phillip Securities has no reason tobelieve are unreliable and any analysis,forecasts, projections, expectations and opinions (collectively the “Research”) contained in this publication are based on such information and are expressions of beliefonly. Phillip Securities has not verified this information and no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made that such information or Research is accurate,complete or verified or should be relied upon as such. Any such information or Research contained in this publication is subject to change, and Phillip Securities shall nothave any responsibility to maintain the information or Research made available or to supply any corrections, updates or releases in connection therewith. In no event willPhillip Securities be liable for any special, indirect, incidental or consequential damages which may be incurred from the use of the information or Research madeavailable, even if it has been advised of the possibility of such damages. Any opinions, forecasts, assumptions, estimates, valuations and prices contained in this material are as of the date indicated and are subject to change at any timewithout prior notice. This material is intended for general circulation only and does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of anyparticular person. The products mentioned in this material may not be suitable for all investors and a person receiving or reading this material should seek advice from afinancial adviser regarding the suitability of such products, taking into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of that person,before making a commitment to invest in any of such products. This publication should not be relied upon as authoritative without further being subject to the recipient’s own independentverification and exercise of judgment. Thefact that this publication has been made available constitutes neither a recommendation to enter into a particular transaction nor a representation that any productdescribed in this material is suitable or appropriate for the recipient. Recipients should be aware that many of the productswhich may be described in this publicationinvolve significant risks and may not be suitable for all investors, and that any decision to enter into transactions involvin