碳酸锂周度报告：现货活跃托底下方支撑，仓单新高制约反弹空间
仓单新高制约反弹空间 陈祎萱CFA高级分析师（有色金属）从业资格号：F3074710投资咨询号：Z0017769Tel:8621-63325888-2722Email:yixuan.chen@orientfutures.com 碳酸锂：看涨2025年1月5日 上周锂盐价格弱势运行。LC2501收盘价环比-0.8%至7.30万元/吨 ，LC2505收 盘 价 环 比-0.2%至7.64万 元/吨 ；SMM电 池 级（99.5%）、工业级（99.2%）碳酸锂现货均价环比-0.9%至7.49、7.17万元/吨；溧阳中联金碳酸锂近月合约收盘价环比-0.3%至7.4万元/吨。周内氢氧化锂价格延续回升，SMM粗颗粒及微粉型电池级氢氧化锂均价环比+0.4%、0.3%至6.97、7.52万元/吨。电工价差环比持平、仍为0.33万元/吨。电池级氢氧化锂较电池级碳酸锂价格贴水环比收窄0.09万元至0.52万元/吨。 基本面角度，1月碳酸锂或仍是紧平衡格局：部分盐厂已陆续开启春节检修，且检修企业多为大型盐厂、带动现货市场品质电碳货源收紧，据调研，1月盐厂检修合计约带来6000吨左右边际减量；1月表需环比回落幅度仍较为有限、或在5-7%，叠加春节备货因素，近期下游备货带动现货市场量价回升。 但与此同时，前期反弹及月差结构阶段性扭转导致隐性库存持续显性化，仓单量已达5.44万吨、创下历史新高，快速攀升的仓单量对盘面构成显著压制、锂价承压运行。 向后看，现货市场的活跃表现给到一定下方支撑，而仓单高企则压制了价格的反弹，从当前现货市场报价来看，品质辉石电碳和仓单的价差已接近2000元/吨，后续需关注下游接仓单的意愿是否会在价差驱动下边际增强。策略方面，当前点位追空的盈亏比已不再合适，但反弹亦稍欠驱动，建议暂时观望为宜。 如何理解碳酸锂的春季躁动？2024/03/29过剩已至，产业链如何出清？2023/12/28博弈加剧，不破不立2023/09/29渐趋理性，波动收敛2023/06/29 ★风险提示 下游消费不及预期，新增产能建设进度与企业预期有所出入。 目录 1、现货活跃托底下方支撑，仓单新高制约反弹空间...........................................................................................................42、周内行业要闻回顾...............................................................................................................................................................53、产业链重点高频数据监测...................................................................................................................................................63.1、资源端：锂精矿现货报价仍坚挺....................................................................................................................................63.2、锂盐：期现价格窄幅震荡................................................................................................................................................63.3、下游中间品：材料端报价回落........................................................................................................................................93.4、终端：11月中国新能源车渗透率略有回落.................................................................................................................104、风险提示.............................................................................................................................................................................11 图表目录 图表1：锂产业链重点高频价格监测............................................................................................................................................................4图表2：锂精矿现货均价................................................................................................................................................................................6图表3：MtCattlin锂精矿生产利润...............................................................................................................................................................6图表4：GFEX碳酸锂主力合约收盘价（LC2505）....................................................................................................................................6图表5：GFEX碳酸锂期限结构....................................................................................................................................................................6图表6：国内碳酸锂现货均价及电工价差....................................................................................................................................................7图表7：碳酸锂基差（SMM电碳现货均价-GFEX近月）..........................................................................................................................7图表8：溧阳中联金碳酸锂主力合约收盘价................................................................................................................................................7图表9：智利碳酸锂出口均价........................................................................................................................................................................7图表10：国内氢氧化锂现货均价..................................................................................................................................................................8图表11：海内外氢氧化锂价差......................................................................................................................................................................8图表12：国内电池级氢氧化锂-碳酸锂价差.................................................................................................................................................8图表13：锂盐厂理论生产利润......................................................................................................................................................................8图表14：磷酸铁锂价格走势..........................................................................................................................................................................9图表15：磷酸铁锂电芯（动力型）均价......................................................................................................................................................9图表16：三元材料价格走势..........................................................................................................................................................................9图表17：523方形三元电芯（动力型）均价................................................
