聚烯烃周报：新增产能投放，短期供应仍偏紧

研究院化工组 策略摘要 研究员 中性：裕龙石化装置近期开车，叠加前期内蒙宝丰、中英石化顺利投产，新增产能压力较大。存量检修装置按计划开车，中韩石化延期至1月重启。PE基差维持高位，供应端传导较慢，未来中长期供应有继续增加预期。PDH制PP利润修复，PDH开工率恢复至中等水平。季节性淡季下，PE下游终端工厂开工率缓慢下行，PP下游塑编需求低迷，原料适量采购，BOPP开工偏稳定。库存趋势维持跌势且库存总量偏低，年底下游有提前备货需求，短期PE供需或维持偏紧，中长期PE有走弱预期。 梁宗泰020-83901031liangzongtai@htfc.com从业资格号：F3056198投资咨询号：Z0015616 陈莉020-83901135cl@htfc.com从业资格号：F0233775投资咨询号：Z0000421 核心观点 ■市场分析 联系人 石化库存49.5万吨，较上一周去库10万吨。 杨露露0755-82790795yanglulu@htfc.com从业资格号：F03128371 基差方面，LL华东基差+800元/吨，PP华东基差+40元/吨。 生产利润及国内开工方面，PDH制PP利润修复，PDH开工率恢复至中等水平，存量检修装置按计划开车，开工率持续提升。 吴硕琮020-83901158wushuocong@htfc.com从业资格号：F03119179 进出口方面，LL进口窗口打开，PP进口窗口关闭。 下游需求方面，季节性淡季下，PE下游终端工厂开工率缓慢下行，PP下游塑编需求低迷，原料适量采购，BOPP开工偏稳定。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1289号 ■策略 中性。 ■风险 原油价格大幅波动，需求恢复不及预期。 目录 聚烯烃基差结构................................................................................................................................................................................4聚烯烃检修计划................................................................................................................................................................................5聚烯烃生产利润及开工率.................................................................................................................................................................8聚烯烃非标价差及开工占比.............................................................................................................................................................9聚烯烃进出口利润...........................................................................................................................................................................11聚烯烃下游开工及下游利润...........................................................................................................................................................13聚烯烃库存......................................................................................................................................................................................14 图表 图1:LL主力合约走势&基差&跨期|单位：元/吨..........................................................................................................................4图2:PP主力合约走势&基差&跨期|单位：元/吨...........................................................................................................................4图3:中国PE检修量（乘以-1）|单位：万吨/月...........................................................................................................................5图4:中国油制PE检修量（乘以-1）|单位：万吨/月...................................................................................................................5图5:中国煤制PE检修量（乘以-1）|单位：万吨/月...................................................................................................................5图6:中国烷烃制PE检修量（乘以-1）|单位：万吨/月...............................................................................................................5图7:中国PP检修量（乘以-1）|单位：万吨/月...........................................................................................................................5图8:中国油制PP检修量（乘以-1）|单位：万吨/月...................................................................................................................5图9:中国煤制PP月度检修量（乘以-1）|单位：万吨/月...........................................................................................................6图10:中国PDH制PP月度检修量（乘以-1）|单位：万吨/月...................................................................................................6图11:聚烯烃周度开工预估|单位：%............................................................................................................................................6图12:PE开工率分工艺|单位：%...................................................................................................................................................7图13:PE开工率分品种|单位：%...................................................................................................................................................7图14:PP开工率分工艺|单位：%....................................................................................................................................................8图15:LL生产利润（原油制）|单位：元/吨..................................................................................................................................8图16:PE开工率|单位：%...............................................................................................................................................................8图17:PP生产利润（原油制）|单位：元/吨..................................................................................................................................9图18:PP生产利润（PDH制）|单位：元/吨.................................................................................................................................9图19:PP开工率|单位：%...............................................................................................................................................................9图20:HD注塑-LL（华东）|单位：元/吨............................................................................