2024年地热能的未来报告

The Future ofGeothermal Energy INTERNATIONAL ENERGYAGENCY The IEA examines the fullspectrumof energy issuesincluding oil, gas andcoal supply anddemand, renewableenergy technologies,electricity markets,energy efficiency,access to energy,demand sidemanagement and muchmore. Through its work,the IEA advocatespolicies that will enhancethe reliability,affordability andsustainability of energyin its32Member countries,13Association countriesand beyond. IEAMembercountries: IEAAssociationcountries: AustraliaAustriaBelgiumCanadaCzech RepublicDenmarkEstoniaFinlandFranceGermanyGreeceHungaryIrelandItalyJapanKoreaLatviaLithuaniaLuxembourgMexicoNetherlandsNew ZealandNorwayPolandPortugalSlovak RepublicSpainSwedenSwitzerlandRepublic of TürkiyeUnited KingdomUnited States ArgentinaBrazilChinaEgyptIndiaIndonesiaKenyaMoroccoSenegalSingaporeSouth AfricaThailandUkraine This publication and any mapincluded herein are withoutprejudice to the status of orsovereignty over any territory,to the delimitation ofinternational frontiers andboundaries and to the nameof any territory, city or area. The EuropeanCommission alsoparticipates in thework of the IEA Source: IEA.International Energy AgencyWebsite: www.iea.org Abstract This special report focuses on geothermal, a promising and versatile renewableenergy resource with vast untapped potential for electricity generation, heatingand cooling. Geothermal has been a part of energy systems for more than 100years, but it has played a limited role on a global scale. Now, the geothermalindustry is at a critical juncture. New technologies are enabling access to previously untapped resources, whilecost reductions and innovative financing models are paving the way for increasinggeothermal’s role in energy systems around the world. Additionally, techniquesdeveloped by the oil and gas industry – including a strong understanding of thesubsurface, drilling and completing wells, predicting fluid flows and managinglarge-scale projects – can rapidly drive down costs and help tap geothermalresources deeper in the ground. However, to successfully scale up geothermal energy, a number of challengesneedto be addressed,including project development risks,permitting andlicensing processes, environmental concerns and social acceptance. This reportquantifies the technical and market potential of next-generation geothermal andsuggests measures that could help reduce risks, accelerate innovation andincrease the bankability of conventional and next-generation projects, allowing forwider geothermal uptake. Acknowledgements, contributorsand credits This study was prepared by the IEA’s Directorate of Energy Markets and Securityand Directorate of Sustainability, Technology and Outlooks. It was designed anddirected by Heymi Bahar, Senior Renewable Energy Analyst and Brent Wanner,Head of Power Sector Unit. Christophe McGlade, Head of Energy Supply Unitcoordinated the analysis on the role of the oil and gas sector. The report benefitedfrom analysis, drafting and input from multiple colleagues. The lead authors of thereport were Vasilios Anatolitis, Piotr Bojek, François Briens, Eric Buisson, TrevorCriswell, Julie Dallard, Eric Fabozzi, Martin Kueppers, Martina Lyons, Laura MariMartinez,Brieuc Nerincx,Jonatan Olsen,Nikolaos Papastefanakis,MaxSchoenfisch, Rebecca Schultz, Jemima Storey, Courtney Turich, Deniz Ugur andPeter Zeniewski. Valuable comments, feedback and guidance were provided by other seniormanagement and numerous other colleagues within the IEA, in particular KeisukeSamadori, Tim Gould, Laura Cozzi and Paolo Frankl. Other IEA colleagues whohave made important contributions to this work include: Yasmine Arsalane,Chiara Delmastro, Syrine El Abed, Ilkka Hannulla, Jeanne-Marie Hays, RafaelMartinezGordon,Ryszard Pospiech,Rebecca Ruff,Thomas Spencer andNatalie StClair. Timely data from the IEA Energy Data Centre were fundamentalto the report, with particular assistance provided Luca Lorenzoni, Nicola Draghiand Taylor Morrison. Many experts from outside of the IEA provided valuable input, commented andreviewed this report. Inparticular,this analysis greatly benefited from extensive collaborationwithProject InnerSpaceTM,who conducted the modelling and assessmentofthe geothermal technical potential, building upon the GeoMapTMtool. RyanAu, Helen Doran, Stephen Lee, Veit Matt, Dani Merino-Garcia, Drew Nelsonand Claudia Olivares provided major contributions. Additional valuable input was provided by: ElSalvador(General Directorate of Energy,Hydrocarbons and Mines),European Commission (Directorate General for Energy; Directorate General forResearchand Innovation),Greece(Ministry of Environment and Energy),Hungary (Authority for the Supervision of Regulated Activities), Japan (Ministryof Economy, Trade and Industry, Japan Organization for Metals and EnergySecurity),South Korea(KoreanInstituteofGeoscienceandMineralResources(KIGAM),Poland (Ministry of Climate), the Philippines (Department of Energy), Switzerl