迈向亚洲发展中国家的低碳和公正能源转型

Toward a Low-Carbonand Just Energy Transitionin Developing Asia Edited by Dina Azhgaliyeva, Alfredo Baño Leal,and Bo Shen Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 IGO license (CC BY 3.0 IGO) © 2024 Asian Development Bank Institute and Asian Development Bank Asian Development Bank InstituteKasumigaseki Building 8F3-2-5, Kasumigaseki, Chiyoda-kuTokyo 100-6008, Japanwww.adbi.org Asian Development Bank6 ADB Avenue, Mandaluyong City,1550 Metro Manila, PhilippinesTel +63 2 8632 4444; Fax +63 2 8636 2444www.adb.org Some rights reserved. Published in 2024. ISBN 978-4-89974-309-5 (print);ISBN 978-4-89974-310-1 (PDF)DOI: https://doi.org/10.56506/KFCE5218 ISBN 978-92-9277-031-0 (print);978-92-9277-032-7 (PDF);978-92-9277-033-4 (ebook)Publication Stock No. TCS240560-2DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.22617/TCS240560-2 The views in this publication do not necessarily reflect the views and policies of theAsian Development Bank Institute (ADBI), its Advisory Council, ADB’s Board orGovernors, or the governments of ADB members. ADBI and ADB do not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this publicationand accepts no responsibility for any consequence of their use. The mention of specificcompanies or products of manufacturers does not imply that they are endorsed orrecommended by ADB in preference to others of a similar nature that are not mentioned. ADBI and ADB use proper ADB member names and abbreviations throughout and anyvariation or inaccuracy, including in citations and references, should be read as referringto the correct name. By making any designation of or reference to a particular territory orgeographic area in this document, ADBI and ADB do not intend to make any judgmentsas to the legal or other status of any territory or area. This work is available under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 IGO license(CC BY 3.0 IGO). https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/. By using thecontent of this publication, you agree to be bound by the terms of this license. Forattribution, translations, adaptations, and permissions, please read the provisions andterms of use at https://www.adb.org/terms-use#openaccess. This CC license does not apply to non-ADB/ADBI copyright materials in this publication.If the material is attributed to another source, please contact the copyright owner orpublisher of that source for permission to reproduce it. ADB cannot be held liable for anyclaims that arise as a result of your use of the material. Please contact pubsmarketing@adb.org if you have questions or comments with respectto content, or if you wish to obtain copyright permission for your intended use that doesnot fall within these terms, or for permission to use the ADB or ADBI logo. Notes:(i) In this publication, “$” refers to United States dollars.(ii)ADB recognizes “China” as the People’s Republic of China and “Korea” as theRepublic of Korea.(iii)ADB placed its regular assistance to Afghanistan on hold effective 15 August2021. Contents Tables, Figures, and BoxesvContributorsviiiAcknowledgmentsx SummaryxiDina Azghaliyeva, James Correia, Alfredo Baño Leal, and Bo Shen Introduction: Advancing a Just Transition Awayfrom Coal in Developing AsiaxviiDina Azhgaliyeva, James Correia, Alfredo Baño Leal,and Bo Shen PART I: Accelerating Coal-Based Power Plant Retirement 1.Accelerating Coal Plant Retirement at Scale1Deb Chattopadhyay, Brad Handler,and Chandrasekar Govindarajalu 2.Renewable Energy Development:How Close Is the People’s Republic of Chinato Achieving Carbon Neutrality?20Lixia Yao 3.Transition from Coal to Renewable Energy:Evidence from Indonesia44Mahpud Sujai, Riko Wahyudi, and Nova Amalia Sakina PARTII: Promoting a “Just” Energy Transition 4.What Legal and Policy Lessons Can Be Learnedfrom Coal-Exporting Nations for a Just EnergyTransition to a Low-Carbon Future?71Penelope Crossley 5.Balancing the Needs of Energy Security, EconomicGrowth, and Climate Sustainability in ASEAN104Rika Safrina PARTIII: Building an Enabling Environment 6.Are Carbon Taxes Good for South Asia?131Valerie Mercer-Blackman, Lazar Milivojevic,and Victor Mylonas7.Facilitating Energy Transactions ThroughInterconnection Capacity Expansion:The Case of the Japanese Electricity Market174Le Ngoc Dang and Hiroshi Ohashi Tables, Figures, and Boxes Tables1.1Business Models for Accelerated Coal Transition 35.1Energy Efficiency/Intensity Targetsof ASEAN Member States1125.2Renewable Energy Targets of ASEAN Member States1155.3ASEAN Member States’ Energy-RelatedClimate Commitments1206.1Features of the Carbon Tax and AlternativeMitigation Approaches1396.2Selected South Asian Economies:Total Primary Energy Use, 20191416.3Sensitivity Analysis of Selected Impacts Relativeto Comprehensive Energy Price Reform (CEPR)by Selected Economy and Assumption, 20301607.1Hourly Prices and Power Flow Over “After” Period1887.2Hourly Prices and Power Flow Over “Before” Period1897.3Empirical Estimation Outcome1977.4Cost–Benefit Ratio Result201 Figures1.1German Hard