证券-中国房地产：二线城市10月合同销售额好于预期

Better-than-expectedOctcontractedsalesfromtier2 cities'beat Industry Overview 01 November 2024 Top100developerscontractedsalesjumped78%MoM EquityChinaReal Estate/Property According to CRIC, top 100 developers' contracted sales value jumped 78% MoM duringOct and 10% YoY. Quality SOEs (including COLl, CRL, Yuexiu, CMSK, Poly) posted 95%MoM increase and 31% YoY increase (Exhibit 1). Oct contracted sales figures came inbetter than we had expected: we previously expected top 100 developers to post 30%expected sales performance in tier 2 cities, as doubled new home sales volume in tier 1cities should have been well-expected already. Karl Choi, CFA >>Research AnalystMerill Lynch (Hong Kong)+85235083108karl.choi@bofa.com Eric Du >>Research AnalystMerill Lynch (Hong Kong)+85235083329eric.du@bofa.com C&DandCOLIoutperformed Developers that outperformed include C&D (+148% MoM, mainly aided by Xiamenmarket recovery), COLI (121% MoM, aided by tier 1 cities market recovery), Poly (+97%MoM, aided by Guangzhou market recovery) and CRL (+83% MoM). On the other hand,Vanke's contracted sale recovery was subdued with 27% sequential growth. Developersfocusing on lower tier cities e.g., Seazen and Country Garden saw subdued recovery withc. 10%+ sequential growth. Surprisingly, distressed developers also saw significantcontracted sales improvement MoM e.g., Sunac (+439% MoM due to the launch of "Oneon the Bund" in Shanghai), Sino-Ocean (+68 MoM), and CIFI (+39% MoM). Yoyo Pang >ResearchAnalystMerill Lynch (Hong Kong)+852 3508 7607yoyo.pang@bofa.com Abbreviations & acronyms:COLI: China Overseas Land andInvestment Property:potential beneficiary of moredomestic stimulus Based on our marketing feedback, many investors regard the property sector as apotential beneficiary of more forceful domestic demand stimulus if other political issuespressure exports. In our view, potential step-up stimulus for the property sector mayinclude (1) optimizing the implementation for urban redevelopment + inventory buybackcampaigns, e.g., lowering the funding cost; (2) further relaxing Hukou restrictions andgranting subsidies for rural populations to move into cities (e.g., allowing monetizationof their homestead land); (3) policies to promote birth rate; and (4) macroeconomic-levelpolicies to enhance income and inflation expectations. We continue to preferring qualitynames with high exposure to tier 1-2 cities, e.g., COLI and CRL CRIC: China Real Estate InformationCorp. CRL: China Resources Land CMSK: China Merchants Shekou HPR: home purchase restriction SOE: state-owned enterprises Sustainability remains askey In late Oct, we already started to see tier 1 cities' new home sales subscriptionsmoderate a bit, while secondary home transaction volume was holding up well. Investorsare generally skeptical about sustainability, esp. as pricing remains weak (although itappears that selected projects have begun to roll back discounts recently). Althoughdemand sustainability could be more uncertain,weactually seelesspressure from newsupply this time given that land sales have slumped in recent years and secondary homelisting volume seems to be peaking. Based on the current run-rate (which is not likely tobe sustained, in our view), Shenzhen's primary home inventory turnover month woulddrop to c. 6x, and secondary home inventory turnover month would drop to c. 12x, whilethis ratio in Shanghai also would come down c. 12x in both new home and existing homemarkets (Exhibit 8). >> Employed by a non-US affiliate of BofAS and is not registered/qualified as a research analystunder the FINRA rulesRefer to Other Important Disclosures" for information on certain BofA Securities entities that takeresponsibility for the information herein in particular jurisdictionsBofA Securities does and seeks to do business with issuers covered in its researchinterest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider thisreport as only a single factor in making their investment decision.Refer to important disclosures on page 6 to 10. Analyst Certification on page 5. PriceObjectiveBasis/Riskonpage4.12757209 Timestamp: 31 October 2024 01:54PM EDT Developerscontractedsalesperformance Exhibit1:10M24keydevelopers'contractedsalesperformanceTop 100 developers attributable contracted sales jumped 78% MoM Top 100 developers' attributable contracted sales jumped 78% MoM Physical market updates Exhibit 3: Home sales summary in key cities The primary registered sales volume in 30 cities we track was up by 1% YoY MTD Exhibit 5: Secondary home sales volume in 11 cities (7-day rollingaverage)insqm手机构 Sales registration rebounded post the Golden Week holiday Sales registration rebounded post the Golden Week holiday Exhibit 7: Tier 1 cities' secondary home sales units (7 days movingaverage) Exhibit 6: Tier 1 cities' primary home sales units (7 days movingaverage) Sales registration rebounded post the Golden Week holiday Source: Wind Source: Wind