碳酸锂周度报告：需求拐点尚未兑现，锂价短期宽幅震荡

陈祎萱CFA有色金属分析师从业资格号：F3074710投资咨询号：Z0017769Tel:8621-63325888-2722Email:yixuan.chen@orientfutures.com 碳酸锂：震荡2024年11月3日 上周（10/28-11/01）锂盐价格低位反弹。LC2411收盘价环比+5.4%至7.5万元/吨，LC2501收盘价环比+2.4%至7.65万元/吨；SMM电池级（99.5%）、工业级（99.2%）碳酸锂现货均价环比+0.8%至7.39、6.97万元/吨；溧阳中联金碳酸锂近月合约收盘价环比持平、为7.2万元/吨。周内氢氧化锂价格微跌，SMM粗颗粒及微粉型电池级氢氧化锂均价环比-0.4%、-0.3%至6.69、7.26万元/吨。电工价差环比持平、仍为0.42万元/吨。电池级氢氧化锂较电池级碳酸锂价格贴水环比走阔0.08万元至0.69万元/吨。 上周行情波动较大，11-12月差由此前的3500c快速收窄至1000c以内，月差收缩也带动各合约价格出现反弹。究其原因，我们认为是前期市场预期过于一致使得反套头寸过于拥挤、而临近交割月实盘买单量超预期所致。 进入11月后，交割博弈暂告段落，市场的逻辑主线将重回基本面。目前来看，11月表需超预期，电芯及正极材料环节排产环比正增，与此前市场普遍预期的季节性见顶回落有所出入，企业反馈增量主要来自储能。但值得注意的是，调研显示负极及电解液环节的订单并无明显增量，这与电芯环节的增速有所分歧。短期内需求超预期暂难证实或证伪，需密切关注11月正极环节订单的实际执行情况、以及现货市场成交的边际变化。仓单压力暂缓、需求拐点尚未兑现，短期锂价或在7-8万元/吨内震荡，基于中长期过剩、依旧更建议关注区间上沿的沽空及卖保机会，左侧布局需注意仓位管理。 如何理解碳酸锂的春季躁动？2024/03/29过剩已至，产业链如何出清？2023/12/28博弈加剧，不破不立2023/09/29渐趋理性，波动收敛2023/06/29 ★风险提示 下游消费不及预期，新增产能建设进度与企业预期有所出入。 目录 1、需求拐点尚未兑现，锂价短期宽幅震荡...........................................................................................................................42、周内行业要闻回顾...............................................................................................................................................................53、产业链重点高频数据监测...................................................................................................................................................63.1、资源端：锂精矿现货报价低位回升................................................................................................................................63.2、锂盐：反套月差快速收窄................................................................................................................................................63.3、下游中间品：材料端报价环降........................................................................................................................................93.4、终端：9月中国新能源车产量同比增49%...................................................................................................................104、风险提示.............................................................................................................................................................................11 图表目录 图表1：锂产业链重点高频价格监测............................................................................................................................................................4图表2：锂精矿现货均价................................................................................................................................................................................6图表3：MtCattlin锂精矿生产利润...............................................................................................................................................................6图表4：GFEX碳酸锂主力合约收盘价（LC2411）....................................................................................................................................6图表5：GFEX碳酸锂期限结构....................................................................................................................................................................6图表6：国内碳酸锂现货均价及电工价差....................................................................................................................................................7图表7：碳酸锂基差（SMM电碳现货均价-GFEX近月）..........................................................................................................................7图表8：溧阳中联金碳酸锂主力合约收盘价................................................................................................................................................7图表9：智利碳酸锂出口均价........................................................................................................................................................................7图表10：国内氢氧化锂现货均价..................................................................................................................................................................8图表11：海内外氢氧化锂价差......................................................................................................................................................................8图表12：国内电池级氢氧化锂-碳酸锂价差.................................................................................................................................................8图表13：锂盐厂理论生产利润......................................................................................................................................................................8图表14：磷酸铁锂价格走势..........................................................................................................................................................................9图表15：磷酸铁锂电芯（动力型）均价......................................................................................................................................................9图表16：三元材料价格走势..........................................................................................................................................................................9图表17：523方形三元电芯（动力型）均价......................................