油脂日报：外部影响持续，油脂持续偏弱

研究院农产品组 油脂观点 研究员 邓绍瑞010-64405663dengshaorui@htfc.com从业资格号：F3047125投资咨询号：Z0015474 ■市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘棕榈油2501合约9270元/吨，环比持平；昨日收盘豆油2501合约8378元/吨，环比下跌50元，跌幅0.59%；昨日收盘菜油2501合约9537元/吨，环比下跌121元，跌幅1.25%。现货方面，广东地区棕榈油现货价9450元/吨，环比上涨20元，涨幅0.21%，现货基差P01+180，环比上涨20元；天津地区一级豆油现货价格8380元/吨，环比下跌60元/吨，跌幅0.71%，现货基差Y01+2，环比下跌10元；江苏地区四级菜油现货价格9570元/吨，环比下跌110元，跌幅1.14%，现货基差OI01+33，环比上涨11元。 李馨lixin@htfc.com从业资格号：F03120775投资咨询号：Z0019724 近期市场咨询汇总：加拿大油籽加工商协会（COPA）发布的油籽压榨数据显示，2024年09月，加拿大大豆压榨量为79465吨，环比升13.02%；豆油产量为14989吨，环比升18.07%；豆粕产量为62767吨，环比升12.91%。加拿大油籽压榨作物年度为8月次年7月。2024年09月，加拿大油菜籽压榨量为933065.0吨，环比升9.7%；菜籽油产量为394851.0吨，环比升8.72%；菜籽粕产量为544428.0吨，环比升10.2%。加拿大油籽压榨作物年度为8月次年7月。 联系人 白旭宇010-64405663baixuyu@htfc.com从业资格号：F03114139 昨日三大油脂价格震荡，受国际油价下跌影响油脂走弱，但棕榈油维持稳定，主要有来自供应和需求的双重利好，加上本周原油也录得上涨，给了棕榈油助力，棕榈油和豆油高价差下维持刚需，但价格驱动在产地，国内价格被动跟随产地价格上涨，回调买多依旧是近期主要策略。 薛钧元010-64405663xuejunyuan@htfc.com从业资格号：F03114096 ■策略 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1289号 谨慎看涨 ■风险 无 目录 策略摘要............................................................................................................................................................................................1油脂市场分析....................................................................................................................................................................................4 图表 图1:全球大豆库销比丨单位：%...................................................................................................................................................6图2:全球菜籽库销比丨单位：%...................................................................................................................................................6图3:马来西亚初榨棕榈油产量丨单位：万吨...............................................................................................................................6图4:马来西亚棕榈油单产丨单位：吨/公顷.................................................................................................................................6图5:马来西亚棕榈油出口丨单位：万吨......................................................................................................................................6图6:马来西亚棕榈油库存丨单位：万吨......................................................................................................................................6图7:印度尼西亚棕榈油出口量丨单位：万吨...............................................................................................................................7图8:印尼棕榈油期末库存丨单位：万吨......................................................................................................................................7图9:中国主要油厂豆油库存丨单位：万吨..................................................................................................................................7图10:中国沿海油厂菜油库存丨单位：万吨.................................................................................................................................7图11:华东菜油库存丨单位：万吨.................................................................................................................................................7图12:中国棕榈油库存丨单位：万吨............................................................................................................................................7图13:三大油脂库存丨单位：万吨................................................................................................................................................8图14:菜油进口量丨单位：万吨....................................................................................................................................................8图15:中国豆油进口量丨单位：万吨............................................................................................................................................8图16:中国棕榈液油进口量丨单位：万吨....................................................................................................................................8图17:天津一级豆油基差丨单位：元/吨.......................................................................................................................................8图18:广东棕榈油基差丨单位：元/吨...........................................................................................................................................8图19:江苏四级菜油基差丨单位：元/吨.......................................................................................................................................9图20:广东区域豆-棕油价差丨单位：元/吨..................................................................................................................................9图21:广东区域豆-菜油价差丨单位：元/吨..................................................................................................................................9图22:菜油进口盘面利润丨单位：元/吨.......................................................................................................................................9图23:豆油进口盘面利润丨单位：元/吨.......................................................................................................................................9图24:棕榈油进口盘面利润丨单位：元/吨.................................................................................