油脂日报：外部市场影响，油脂持续下跌

研究院农产品组 油脂观点 研究员 邓绍瑞010-64405663dengshaorui@htfc.com从业资格号：F3047125投资咨询号：Z0015474 ■市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘棕榈油2401合约6916元/吨，环比下跌14元，跌幅0.20%；昨日收盘豆油2401合约7936元/吨，环比下跌34元，跌幅0.43%；昨日收盘菜油2401合约8131元/吨，环比下跌31元，跌幅0.38%。现货方面，广东地区棕榈油现货价格6970元/吨，环比无变化，现货基差P01+54，环比上涨14元；天津地区一级豆油现货价格8162元/吨，环比下跌22元/吨，跌幅0.27%，现货基差Y01+226，环比上涨12元；江苏地区四级菜油现货价格无报价。 李馨lixin@htfc.com从业资格号：F03120775投资咨询号：Z0019724 近期市场咨询汇总：据国家粮油信息中心，本周国内豆油、棕榈油价格均震荡下跌，但棕榈油跌幅大于豆油，豆棕油价差走扩。12月6日，大商所2401合约豆棕价差1040元/吨，周环比扩大116元/吨，月环比扩大182元/吨，同比缩小124元/吨。沿海地区豆棕现货价差1200～1400元/吨，周环比扩大50～150元/吨，月环比扩大50～100元/吨，同比缩小350～550元/吨。阿根廷豆油(1月船期) C&F价格982美元/吨，与上个交易日相比下调31美元/吨；阿根廷豆油(3月船期)C&F价格993美元/吨，与上个交易日相比下调22美元/吨。加拿大进口菜油C&F报价：进口菜油（1月船期）C&F价格1200美元/吨，与上个交易日相比持平；进口菜油(3月船期)C&F价格1230元/吨，与上个交易日相比持平。 联系人 白旭宇010-64405663baixuyu@htfc.com从业资格号：F03114139 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1289号 昨日三大油脂价格震荡下跌，受美豆油弱势影响，叠加国内供需压力，三大油脂延续下跌趋势。目前菜油和豆油价差持续收窄，尤其是现货价差，菜油替代豆油有一定的性价比，后期菜豆价差有望走扩，关注01合约价差扩大机会。 ■策略 中性 ■风险 无 目录 策略摘要......................................................................................................................................................................................................1油脂市场分析..............................................................................................................................................................................................4 图表 图1:全球大豆库销比丨单位：%...........................................................................................................................................................6图2:全球菜籽库销比丨单位：%...........................................................................................................................................................6图3:马来西亚初榨棕榈油产量丨单位：万吨.....................................................................................................................................6图4:马来西亚棕榈油单产丨单位：吨/公顷........................................................................................................................................6图5:马来西亚棕榈油出口丨单位：万吨.............................................................................................................................................6图6:马来西亚棕榈油库存丨单位：万吨.............................................................................................................................................6图7:印度尼西亚棕榈油出口量丨单位：万吨.....................................................................................................................................7图8:印尼棕榈油期末库存丨单位：万吨.............................................................................................................................................7图9:中国主要油厂豆油库存丨单位：万吨.........................................................................................................................................7图10:中国沿海油厂菜油库存丨单位：万吨.......................................................................................................................................7图11:华东菜油库存丨单位：万吨........................................................................................................................................................7图12:中国棕榈油库存丨单位：万吨....................................................................................................................................................7图13:三大油脂库存丨单位：万吨........................................................................................................................................................8图14:菜油进口量丨单位：万吨............................................................................................................................................................8图15:中国豆油进口量丨单位：万吨....................................................................................................................................................8图16:中国棕榈液油进口量丨单位：万吨...........................................................................................................................................8图17:天津一级豆油基差丨单位：元/吨..............................................................................................................................................8图18:广东棕榈油基差丨单位：元/吨...................................................................................................................................................8图19:江苏四级菜油基差丨单位：元/吨..............................................................................................................................................9图20:广东区域豆-棕油价差丨单位：元/吨.........................................................................................................................................9图21:广东区域豆-菜油价差丨单位：元/吨.........................................................................................................................................9图22:菜油进口盘面利润丨单位：元/吨..............................................................................................................................................9图23:豆油进口盘面利润丨单位：元/吨................................................................