油脂日报：外部市场影响，油脂大幅下跌

研究院农产品组 油脂观点 研究员 邓绍瑞010-64405663dengshaorui@htfc.com从业资格号：F3047125投资咨询号：Z0015474 ■市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘棕榈油2401合约7156元/吨，环比下跌174元，跌幅2.37%；昨日收盘豆油2401合约7844元/吨，环比下跌246元，跌幅3.04%；昨日收盘菜油2401合约8527元/吨，环比下跌212元，跌幅2.43%。现货方面，广东地区棕榈油现货价格7110元/吨，环比下跌190元，跌幅2.60%，现货基差P01-46，环比下跌16元；天津地区一级豆油现货价格8300元/吨，环比下跌190元/吨，跌幅2.24%，现货基差Y01+456，环比上涨56元；江苏地区四级菜油现货价格无报价。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1289号 近期市场咨询汇总：商务部对外贸易司本期报告以进口商9月1日-15日的报告数据为基数。本期棕榈油进口实际装船19.21万吨，同比下降27.68%；本月棕榈油进口预报装船23.78万吨，同比下降61.21%；下月棕榈油进口预报装船9.00万吨，同比下降86.95%。本期棕榈油实际到港16.81万吨，同比上升7.06%；下期棕榈油预报到港15.16万吨，同比下降33.73%；本月棕榈油实际到港31.97万吨，同比下降17.13%；下月棕榈油预报到港4.91万吨，同比下降91.45%。本期豆油进口实际装船0.38万吨，同比上升31.60%；本月豆油进口预报装船0.55万吨，同比下降93.83%；下月豆油进口预报装船0.00万吨，同比下降100.00%。本期豆油实际到港0.20万吨，同比下降26.35%；下期豆油预报到港1.45万吨，同比上升569.91%；本月豆油实际到港1.65万吨，同比上升234.89%；下月豆油预报到港0.94万吨，同比下降53.79%。 昨日三大油脂价格大幅下跌，美元走强，大宗商品承压下跌，豆油领跌三大油脂。据Mysteel调研显示，中国四季度菜籽采买数量已经达18条船，集中于9-10月船期，预计届时菜油产量将增量明显，然而国内沿海库存维持较高水平，菜油供应依然宽松，需求有望在四季度好转，后市有望在需求好转拉动震荡上涨。 策略 中性 ■风险 无 目录 策略摘要....................................................................................................................................................................................1油脂市场分析............................................................................................................................................................................4 图表 图1:全球大豆库销比丨单位：%............................................................................................................................................6图2:全球菜籽库销比丨单位：%............................................................................................................................................6图3:马来西亚初榨棕榈油产量丨单位：万吨.........................................................................................................................6图4:马来西亚棕榈油单产丨单位：吨/公顷...........................................................................................................................6图5:马来西亚棕榈油出口丨单位：万吨................................................................................................................................6图6:马来西亚棕榈油库存丨单位：万吨................................................................................................................................6图7:印度尼西亚棕榈油出口量丨单位：万吨.........................................................................................................................7图8:印尼棕榈油期末库存丨单位：万吨................................................................................................................................7图9:中国主要油厂豆油库存丨单位：万吨.............................................................................................................................7图10:中国沿海油厂菜油库存丨单位：万吨...........................................................................................................................7图11:华东菜油库存丨单位：万吨..........................................................................................................................................7图12:中国棕榈油库存丨单位：万吨......................................................................................................................................7图13:三大油脂库存丨单位：万吨..........................................................................................................................................8图14:菜油进口量丨单位：万吨..............................................................................................................................................8图15:中国豆油进口量丨单位：万吨......................................................................................................................................8图16:中国棕榈液油进口量丨单位：万吨..............................................................................................................................8图17:天津一级豆油基差丨单位：元/吨.................................................................................................................................8图18:广东棕榈油基差丨单位：元/吨.....................................................................................................................................8图19:江苏四级菜油基差丨单位：元/吨.................................................................................................................................9图20:广东区域豆-棕油价差丨单位：元/吨............................................................................................................................9图21:广东区域豆-菜油价差丨单位：元/吨............................................................................................................................9图22:菜油进口盘面利润丨单位：元/吨.................................................................................................................................9图23:豆油进口盘面利润丨单位：元/吨.................................................................................................................................9图24:棕榈油进口盘面利润丨单位：元/吨.............................................................................................................................9图25:中国大豆周度压榨量丨单位：万吨...............................................................