【碳酸锂周报】交割博弈临近尾声，关注需求预期差

陈祎萱CFA有色金属分析师从业资格号：F3074710投资咨询号：Z0017769Tel:8621-63325888-2722Email:yixuan.chen@orientfutures.com 碳酸锂：震荡2024年10月27日 上周锂盐价格震荡回升。LC2411收盘价环比+0.7%只7.12万元/吨，LC2501收盘价环比+0.7%至7.47万元/吨；SMM电池级（99.5%）、工业级（99.2%）碳酸锂现货均价环比-0.5%至7.33、6.92万元/吨；溧阳中联金碳酸锂近月合约收盘价环比+1.4%至7.1万元/吨。周内氢氧化锂价格微跌，SMM粗颗粒及微粉型电池级氢氧化锂均价环比-1.1%、-1.0%至6.72、7.29万元/吨。电工价差环比持平、仍为0.42万元/吨。电池级氢氧化锂较电池级碳酸锂价格贴水环比略走阔至0.61万元/吨。 此前市场普遍预期11月正极材料排产环比-10%以上，但据我们的调研了解，头部LFP企业11月排产多环比持平或略降，11月表需韧性或略超市场此前预期，对应库存拐点出现的时点晚于预期。近期现货市场的买盘仍存、现货基差维持强势，对期现货市场的情绪亦起到了一定的支撑作用。 至周五，LC2411仍有9.1万手持仓，短期市场的博弈重心仍在于交割月前的投机持仓减仓，需持续关注11-12的月差走势。向后看，进入11月后，仓单压力将不再成为短期行情的主导因素，市场或重回基本面交易，表需边际超预期，叠加现货市场优质货源流动性偏紧、基差表现强势，价格短期或企稳反弹，但考虑到年内基本面转弱的趋势已现，且中长期仍是大幅过剩，边际预期差料难带动价格出现强势反弹，中期而言仍建议关注沽空机会。 如何理解碳酸锂的春季躁动？2024/03/29过剩已至，产业链如何出清？2023/12/28博弈加剧，不破不立2023/09/29渐趋理性，波动收敛2023/06/29 ★风险提示 下游消费不及预期，新增产能建设进度与企业预期有所出入。 目录 1、交割博弈临近尾声，关注需求预期差...............................................................................................................................42、周内行业要闻回顾...............................................................................................................................................................53、产业链重点高频数据监测...................................................................................................................................................63.1、资源端：锂精矿现货报价再度回落................................................................................................................................63.2、锂盐：期现走势略有分化................................................................................................................................................63.3、下游中间品：材料端报价环降........................................................................................................................................93.4、终端：9月中国新能源车产量同比增49%...................................................................................................................104、风险提示.............................................................................................................................................................................11 图表目录 图表1：锂产业链重点高频价格监测............................................................................................................................................................4图表2：锂精矿现货均价................................................................................................................................................................................6图表3：MtCattlin锂精矿生产利润...............................................................................................................................................................6图表4：GFEX碳酸锂主力合约收盘价（LC2411）....................................................................................................................................6图表5：GFEX碳酸锂期限结构....................................................................................................................................................................6图表6：国内碳酸锂现货均价及电工价差....................................................................................................................................................7图表7：碳酸锂基差（SMM电碳现货均价-GFEX近月）..........................................................................................................................7图表8：溧阳中联金碳酸锂主力合约收盘价................................................................................................................................................7图表9：智利碳酸锂出口均价........................................................................................................................................................................7图表10：国内氢氧化锂现货均价..................................................................................................................................................................8图表11：海内外氢氧化锂价差......................................................................................................................................................................8图表12：国内电池级氢氧化锂-碳酸锂价差.................................................................................................................................................8图表13：锂盐厂理论生产利润......................................................................................................................................................................8图表14：磷酸铁锂价格走势..........................................................................................................................................................................9图表15：磷酸铁锂电芯（动力型）均价......................................................................................................................................................9图表16：三元材料价格走势..........................................................................................................................................................................9图表17：523方形三元电芯（动力型）均价..................................................................................