2024年香港经济政策绿皮书

Hong Kong Economic Policy Green Paper 2024香港經濟政策綠皮書 2024 Publisher:HKU Business School出版者:港大經管學院Address:4/F., K.K. Leung Building, The University of Hong Kong,Pokfulam Road, Hong Kong地址:香港薄扶林道香港大學梁球琚樓4樓Website網址:https://www.hkubs.hku.hk/Email電郵地址:fbecomm@hku.hkVersion:January 2024 (Hong Kong – First Edition)版次:2024年1月香港初版 Preamble3Introduction4Hong Kong: Structural Evolution and Future asan International Financial Centre9The Linked Exchange Rate System of Hong Kong Dollar:A Benefit-Cost Evaluation17Income Inequality in Hong Kong31The Impact of Aging on Hong Kong’s Future Health Spending45Using Data and Algorithms to Reduce Public Housing Wait Times61Brain Drain, Brain Gain, and The Future of Hong Kong:Evidence from LinkedIn Profiles69IP Commercialization Benefits High-Quality Economic Developmentof Hong Kong83Great Cities: The Importance of Enhancing Hong Kong’s InternationalAviation Hub Status97List of Contributors108 Online Version Preamble It is with immense pleasure and delight that I present the third annual Hong Kong Economic PolicyGreen Paper, produced by the distinguished scholars of the HKU Business School. This annualvolume serves as a testament to the exceptional dedication and rigorous analysis undertakenby our esteemed academic community in addressing the myriad economic opportunities andchallenges that Hong Kong faces today. In the wake of the global pandemic and amidst rising geopolitical tensions, it is more critical thanever for our city to forge a clear and strategic path forward. This year’s Green Paper providesinvaluable insights and guidance to help us navigate these uncertain times. The sustained effortsand unparalleled expertise of the scholars at the University of Hong Kong are both timely andwelcome, as they contribute to shaping a prosperous and resilient future for our beloved city. The Hong Kong Economic Policy Green Paper is a commendable initiative, and I wholeheartedlyrecommend this year’s installment to everyone who is passionate about and invested inthe future of Hong Kong. May it inspire thoughtful deliberation, informed decision-making,and collective action as we work together to overcome the challenges ahead and seize theopportunities that lie before us. With my warmest regards and congratulations to the authors and contributors of this exemplarypublication, I invite you to delve into the pages of the third annual Hong Kong Economic PolicyGreen Paper and join us in our pursuit of a brighter tomorrow for Hong Kong. Y C Richard Wong Deputy Vice-Chancellor and ProvostThe University of Hong Kong 1 January 2024 Introduction Amid the changing nature of globalization, which has become more regionalized, digitalized,and service-oriented, and a challenging geopolitical landscape, there is an urgent need toexplore new paths and positions for the Hong Kong economy. Similar to the past two years,the HKU Business School is once again publishing the Hong Kong Economic Policy Green Paper2024, which is an edited volume of eight chapters on various aspects of the city’s economicfuture. These chapters are contributed by different experts from the University of Hong Kong.This year’s Green Paper is a joint effort of academics from the HKU Business School and otherfaculties. The topics covered in the Green Paper range from the future of Hong Kong as aninternational financial center to public health reforms. I hope you will enjoy reading thesechapters and gain new insights on how the city’s economy can be restructured to be moreinclusive and resilient. The first chapter, written by Arner, examines Hong Kong’s evolution into a major internationalfinancial center, the scope of its role, and recent structural changes. History serves as a guide:Hong Kong weathered the 1987 global market crash and the 2008 Global Financial Crisis andcontinued to grow as an international financial center. However, the period from 2019 to2023 was challenging due to domestic instability, COVID-19, and geopolitical tensions. Ratherthan declining, Hong Kong’s role may be undergoing structural change as the global economybecomes increasingly multipolar. Hong Kong and Singapore are evolving into financial centersfor different regions – Hong Kong for China and Singapore for Asia excluding China. To enhanceits role, Hong Kong must maintain its strengths, reinforce its access to mainland China, andimprove its transactional infrastructure. Its success will depend on openness, infrastructure,institutions, and interconnections. A fundamental infrastructure underlying Hong Kong’s function as an international financialcenter is its fixed exchange rate with the U.S. dollar (USD), which was chosen by the city’smonetary authority. What is the future of the currency peg given the possibility, althoughunlikely, of the U.S. authorities increasing their use of financial sanctions on other governments,companies, and individuals? Fang and Liu explore the current status and development of HongKong’s linked exchange rate syst