【碳酸锂周报】供需拐点叠加交割博弈，锂价再创新低

锂价再创新低 陈祎萱CFA有色金属分析师从业资格号：F3074710投资咨询号：Z0017769Tel:8621-63325888-2722Email:yixuan.chen@orientfutures.com 碳酸锂：震荡2024年10月20日 上周锂盐价格偏弱运行。LC2410收盘价环比-3.0%至7.05万元/吨 ，LC2411收 盘 价 环 比-4.4%至7.07万 元/吨 ；SMM电 池 级（99.5%）、工业级（99.2%）碳酸锂现货均价环比-3.7%、-3.9%至7.37、6.95万元/吨；溧阳中联金碳酸锂近月合约收盘价环比-3.4%至7.0万元/吨。周内氢氧化锂价格微跌，SMM粗颗粒及微粉型电池级氢氧化锂均价环比-0.7%至6.79、7.36万元/吨。电工价差环比持平、仍为0.42万元/吨。电池级氢氧化锂较电池级碳酸锂价格贴水环比收窄0.23万元至0.57万元/吨。 近期盘面重回弱势，上周主力合约LC2411再次跌破7万关口。究其原因，我们认为是基本面拐点渐进，叠加主力合约交割月临近、仓单压力集中发酵所致。基本面角度，按照终端订单向表观传导的时间周期，年内表需或于近期见顶；供应方面，前期反弹时锂盐加工环节利润有所修复，对应国内辉石系碳酸锂产量环比有所增加，同时9月智利发运回升对应10月中国进口量环比上行，均边际对冲了枧下窝减停产带来的产量损失。交割博弈方面，当前广期所仓单量共计4.5万吨，LC2411持仓量16万手，进入交割月前，投机持仓的离场博弈或阶段性主导盘面短期波动。 盘面跌破前低后，短期需重点关注：供应端是否出现跌价负反馈；月差是否能够有效解决买交割意愿不足的问题。在上述驱动出现前，我们认为锂价短期或难言企稳、仍是偏弱运行。 如何理解碳酸锂的春季躁动？2024/03/29过剩已至，产业链如何出清？2023/12/28博弈加剧，不破不立2023/09/29渐趋理性，波动收敛2023/06/29 ★风险提示 下游消费不及预期，新增产能建设进度与企业预期有所出入。 目录 1、供需拐点叠加交割博弈，锂价再创新低...........................................................................................................................42、周内行业要闻回顾...............................................................................................................................................................53、产业链重点高频数据监测...................................................................................................................................................63.1、资源端：锂精矿现货报价再度回落................................................................................................................................63.2、锂盐：价格再创新低........................................................................................................................................................63.3、下游中间品：材料端报价环降........................................................................................................................................93.4、终端：9月中国新能源车产量同比增49%...................................................................................................................104、风险提示.............................................................................................................................................................................11 图表目录 图表1：锂产业链重点高频价格监测............................................................................................................................................................4图表6：锂精矿现货均价................................................................................................................................................................................6图表7：MtCattlin锂精矿生产利润...............................................................................................................................................................6图表8：GFEX碳酸锂主力合约收盘价（LC2411）....................................................................................................................................6图表9：GFEX碳酸锂期限结构....................................................................................................................................................................6图表10：国内碳酸锂现货均价及电工价差..................................................................................................................................................7图表11：碳酸锂基差（SMM电碳现货均价-GFEX近月）........................................................................................................................7图表12：溧阳中联金碳酸锂主力合约收盘价..............................................................................................................................................7图表13：智利碳酸锂出口均价......................................................................................................................................................................7图表14：国内氢氧化锂现货均价..................................................................................................................................................................8图表15：海内外氢氧化锂价差......................................................................................................................................................................8图表16：国内电池级氢氧化锂-碳酸锂价差.................................................................................................................................................8图表17：锂盐厂理论生产利润......................................................................................................................................................................8图表18：磷酸铁锂价格走势..........................................................................................................................................................................9图表19：磷酸铁锂电芯（动力型）均价......................................................................................................................................................9图表20：三元材料价格走势..........................................................................................................................................................................9图表21：523方形三元电芯（动力型）均价.........................................................