Executive Summary
Decarbonizing Aviation: A Global Priority
Decarbonization of the energy sector is a global priority, particularly in aviation, where hydrogen plays a pivotal role in achieving net-zero carbon emissions by 2050. This study evaluates hydrogen's increasing role in the aviation sector across South Wales and South West England.
Flight Path to Net Zero
While advancements in conventional aircraft and operational improvements enhance energy efficiency, hydrogen, alongside sustainable aviation fuels (SAFs), electric propulsion, and new fuel types, is forecasted to contribute significantly—between half and three-quarters—to reducing carbon emissions in aviation by 2050.
Hydrogen's Role
Hydrogen can be utilized directly as a fuel in modified jet turbines or integrated into fuel cell power chains. Its indirect utility is in producing SAFs. Therefore, hydrogen is central to decarbonizing aviation.
Demand Phases
2025-2030: Introduction of first-generation hydrogen-fueled aircraft featuring converted conventional turbo-prop aircraft. SAF mandates reach approximately 10%, necessitating localized production for early adopter flights and SAF. LanzaTech supplies most local SAF production for aviation at scale in South West England and South Wales.
2035-2045: Larger, second-generation hydrogen-fueled aircraft enter service, utilizing jet turbines or hybrid configurations. SAF mandates rise to about 30%, with additional requirements for advanced SAF types. Demand peaks at over 60,000 tonnes per year in South West England and South Wales if easyJet prioritizes hydrogen aircraft at Bristol Airport.
2050 and Beyond: Increasing hydrogen-fueled aircraft in airline fleets. SAF mandates exceed 65%, with at least half coming from advanced SAF types. Demand approaches 120,000 tonnes per year, especially if easyJet prioritizes hydrogen at Bristol Airport.
Infrastructure Development
The UK Government aims to develop low-carbon hydrogen capabilities as part of energy security and decarbonization efforts. However, aviation requires more hydrogen than the Government has committed to, with liquefaction, storage, and purification currently low priorities. Gaining government support for resolving these areas will boost investor confidence and ensure successful transition.
Key Drivers
Infrastructure and safety standard improvements will facilitate hydrogen's adoption in commercial aviation. Challenges include technology development for lighter, smaller powertrains and hydrogen storage systems, scaling hydrogen production and transportation, handling hydrogen in airports, and infrastructure for liquid hydrogen delivery and distribution.
Sustainable Growth
South West England and South Wales are well-positioned for advancing hydrogen in aviation due to abundant renewable energy resources, a robust aerospace industry, supportive policies, and strong international connectivity. Bristol Airport serves as a catalyst, driven by its size, growth, ambitious net-zero targets, collaboration within Hydrogen South West, and partnerships with easyJet, a pioneer in hydrogen aviation.
Conclusion
This study underscores the pivotal role of hydrogen in decarbonizing aviation in South Wales and South West England. Through strategic planning and infrastructure development, the region can harness its potential for sustainable growth in the aviation sector.
