油脂日报：外部市场影响，油脂止跌反弹

研究院农产品组 油脂观点 研究员 邓绍瑞010-64405663dengshaorui@htfc.com从业资格号：F3047125投资咨询号：Z0015474 ■市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘棕榈油2409合约7596元/吨，环比上涨32元，涨幅0.42%；昨日收盘豆油2409合约7458元/吨，环比上涨52元，涨幅0.70%；昨日收盘菜油2409合约8083元/吨，环比上涨39元，涨幅0.48%。现货方面，广东地区棕榈油现货价7680元/吨，环比上涨70元，涨幅0.92%，现货基差P09+84，环比上涨38元；天津地区一级豆油现货价格7610元/吨，环比上涨70元/吨，涨幅0.93%，现货基差Y09+152，环比上涨18元；江苏地区四级菜油现货价格8080元/吨，环比上涨40元，涨幅0.50%，现货基差OI09-3，环比上涨1元。 李馨lixin@htfc.com从业资格号：F03120775投资咨询号：Z0019724 近期市场咨询汇总：据国家粮油信息中心，据监测，6月份下旬以来，随着进口大豆成本下降，我国采购7—8月船期巴西大豆数量增多，加上部分6月船期进口大豆推延至8月份到港，预计8—9月我国进口大豆到港量依然庞大，月均到港量在850万吨左右，三季度国内大豆供给仍然宽松。阿根廷豆油(9月船期) C&F价格953美元/吨，与上个交易日相上调7美元/吨；阿根廷豆油(11月船期)C&F价格939美元/吨，与上个交易日相比持平。加拿大进口菜油C&F报价：进口菜油（9月船期）C&F价格1000美元/吨，与上个交易日相比持平；进口菜油(11月船期)C&F价格980元/吨，与上个交易日相比持平。 联系人 白旭宇010-64405663baixuyu@htfc.com从业资格号：F03114139 薛钧元010-64405663xuejunyuan@htfc.com从业资格号：F03114096 昨日三大油脂价格震荡上涨，受国外油价上涨提振，国内油脂止跌反弹，豆油领涨三大油脂。豆油方面，近期CBOT美豆弱势运行，且投机资金在美豆的净空头寸再次增加。国内豆油基本面依旧偏弱，因天气炎热，压榨开机产能持续高位，需求偏弱，导致库存持续上涨。钢联最新库存数据显示豆油商业库存109.12万吨，环比上月增加10.71万吨。在供强需弱格局下，豆油承压下跌，后期预计继续偏弱运行并在油脂中表现较差。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1289号 ■策略 中性 ■风险 无 目录 策略摘要............................................................................................................................................................................................1油脂市场分析....................................................................................................................................................................................1 图表 图1:全球大豆库销比丨单位：%...................................................................................................................................................6图2:全球菜籽库销比丨单位：%...................................................................................................................................................6图3:马来西亚初榨棕榈油产量丨单位：万吨...............................................................................................................................6图4:马来西亚棕榈油单产丨单位：吨/公顷.................................................................................................................................6图5:马来西亚棕榈油出口丨单位：万吨......................................................................................................................................6图6:马来西亚棕榈油库存丨单位：万吨......................................................................................................................................6图7:印度尼西亚棕榈油出口量丨单位：万吨...............................................................................................................................7图8:印尼棕榈油期末库存丨单位：万吨......................................................................................................................................7图9:中国主要油厂豆油库存丨单位：万吨...................................................................................................................................7图10:中国沿海油厂菜油库存丨单位：万吨.................................................................................................................................7图11:华东菜油库存丨单位：万吨.................................................................................................................................................7图12:中国棕榈油库存丨单位：万吨............................................................................................................................................7图13:三大油脂库存丨单位：万吨................................................................................................................................................8图14:菜油进口量丨单位：万吨....................................................................................................................................................8图15:中国豆油进口量丨单位：万吨............................................................................................................................................8图16:中国棕榈液油进口量丨单位：万吨....................................................................................................................................8图17:天津一级豆油基差丨单位：元/吨.......................................................................................................................................8图18:广东棕榈油基差丨单位：元/吨...........................................................................................................................................8图19:江苏四级菜油基差丨单位：元/吨.......................................................................................................................................9图20:广东区域豆-棕油价差丨单位：元/吨..................................................................................................................................9图21:广东区域豆-菜油价差丨单位：元/吨..................................................................................................................................9图22:菜油进口盘面利润丨单位：元/吨.......................................................................................................................................9图23:豆油进口盘面利润丨单位：元/吨...............................................................................................................