宏观策略专题：2024美国大选走势和市场影响

宏观策略专题：2024美国大选走势和市场影响 美国年度总统选举可能带来对国内和国际经济政治格局的多重影响。11月美国总统选举，特朗普已获共和党提名，就近期事件和民调显示特朗普当选的可能性上升。但选举走势仍存变数，包括未来拜登是否得到民主党提名、其他候选人的支持可能、两院选举结果，也需关注特朗普竞选纲领细节。与拜登政府政策相比，特朗普的关税和减税政策可能带来更多通胀压力，对国内增长影响利弊相伴，但财政赤字和债务压力预计上升，财政和债务可持续性预计一步成为市场焦点。其他政策，包括支持传统能源，美国优先的移民和外交政策，也将带来国际格局的多方面影响。 宏观团队崔历(852) 3911 8274cuili@ccbintl.com 谢炫(852) 3911 8241kevinxie@ccbintl.com 全球产业链重塑的压力将持续。过往几年亚洲国家的产业链贸易快速上升。而全球制造业周期为贸易带来新的机会，对冲前期关税的部分影响。若特朗普上台并实施新的关税壁垒将增加全球经济的不确定性，也将加速亚洲区域产业链重塑进程。 严惠婷(852) 3911 8012yanhuiting@ccbintl.com “特朗普交易”重回视野。今年提前的拜登-特朗普的辩论、集会意外事件使得本轮“特朗普交易”提前出现。短期美元走强，股市上特朗普政策受益的能源股、金融股走强。但“特朗普交易”升温的同时，降息预期也在强化，在相当大的程度上缓和了美元强势，并促进了美股从大型科技股强势向中小科技和价值股赶超的风格转化。 策略团队赵文利(852) 3911 8279cliffzhao@ccbintl.com 联储降息周期将带动利率下行，但幅度预计有限，关注利率反弹风险。美元预计中期走弱。随经济降温，我们仍预计联储9月开启降息周期，带动利率小幅下行和美元未来几年走弱。但联储需继续管理通胀风险，特别在特朗普当选的情形下，宽松的财政条件和贸易保护主义的预期导致未来通胀预期上升，收益率曲线趋向陡峭化；预计联储降息步伐较为谨慎，财政扩张也可能伴随利率市场的波动反弹。 姜越(852) 3911 8243verajiang@ccbintl.com 邹炜(852) 3911 8246wilsonzou@ccbintl.com 减息周期港股回报率较高，特朗普选情看涨影响短期情绪。市场押注联储9月份降息概率较高，参考港股在过去10次减息周期的表现，在减息周期的首次减息以及最后一次减息后，港股平均回报率相对较高。但由于特朗普相比拜登执政风格更为强势，特朗普上台后美方可能对中方进行进一步制裁如重启贸易战，限制对华投资，及加速中美脱钩等，影响中国企业盈利和短期港股情绪。从本周来看，港股情绪似乎受到特朗普选情看涨的影响更大，截至周二累计下跌3.1%，但我们认为港股中长期表现更多还取决于利率环境和中国经济本身基本面。 The US election in Novemberislikelyto havemulti-faceted implicationsforboth theUSeconomyand geopolitics in general.Donald Trump has been nominated by theRepublican Party,andrecent polls suggest his chances of winninghave improved. Thingscan still change,however,including whetheror not PresidentBiden will winthe DemocraticParty nomination. Biden’s future, the political appeal of asuccessorshould the presdientdecide to step down,theoutcome ofelectionsinboth houses, and details ofTrump’selection platform remain unknowns.Even so,it is worth speculating about what a Trumpadministration might look like.Comparedwiththe Biden administration, Trump's proposal ofnew tariffs and tax cuts is likelyto beinflationary, with mixedimplications forgrowth.Evenmore certain is thatthefiscal deficit and debt pressure will riseunder a Trump administration,leading tofurtherconcernsaboutfiscal sustainability. Furthermore,Trump’ssupport for fossilfuels,hisAmerica-first foreign policy,andhis more conservativeimmigrationstance areallbound tohave profound impacts, both for the US and the world at large. Trump's new tariffs likelytoaccelerate the re-organization of global supply chains.Trade inintermediate goods among Asian economies has risensharplyinrecent years, highlightingtheregionalization of supply chains.Meanwhile, the global manufacturing cycle hasbrought some offset to the disruptions from the tariffs so far.New tariffs wouldheightenglobal economic uncertainty.Either way,re-organization of supply chains within Asia isexpected to continue. In the US market, the“Trump trade”is back on our radar.The early Biden-Trump debate andtheassassination attemptat arecentTrumppoliticalrallyhave causedthis year's“Trumptrade”to comeearlier than it did in the last two election cycles, four and eight years ago.The US dollar,energy,and financial equities all strengthened,as these are the areasexpectedto benefit from Trump policies.However,as the“Trump trade”heats up,expectations of interest rate cutshavealso risen, drainingstrengthinthe US dollarlater onand contributing to a style shift in US equities from large-cap tech leaders to small-and mid-cap tech andvalue stocks. Although the rate-cutting cycle will push interest rates down, thepotentialmagnitudeofratedeclinesis limited; moreover, thereis arisk ofasharp rebound.Giventhe coolingUSeconomy,we expect the Fed will embarkon aneasing cycle in September at which timethe USdollarwillbegin todecline. However, the Fedis tryingto manage medium-terminflation expectations.We expect the Fed will proceedwith aneasing cycle with greatercaution, and interet ratescould reboundoncefiscal issuesbegin todominate the headlines. TheHongKongmarket had higher returnsduring the interest rate cut cycle while Trump’sbullish election prospectsareaffectingshort-term sentiment.Indications are that the marketbelievesthere is ahigh probability theFedwillcut ratesin September.Referencingtheperformance oftheHong Kong marketoverthe past 10 interest rate cut cycles–afterafirstinterest rate cut andafter afinal interest rate cut–we findthe average returnisrelativelyhigh.However, since Trump's governing styletends to bemoreaggressivethan Biden's,chances are theUSwouldimpose further sanctions on ChinashouldTrump take office.Trump couldrestart the trade war, restrict investment in China, and accelerate thedecoupling of China and the US, which wouldaffect Chinese corporate profits and short-term Hong Kong market sentiment.Market sentimentin Hong Kong this weekseems tohavebeen most affected by Trump's bullish election prospects.The market fell for twoconsecutive days and,as of Tuesday, the HSIhaddeclined 3.1% cumulatively. However,we believe that the medium-and long-term performance oftheHong Kong market willdepend more on the interest rate envi