2024年中期策略：耐心资本，花开有时

投资要点 ➢ 一、2024年上半年市场回顾........................................................................................................41.国内主要指数表现分化，上证50涨幅最大为3.0%....................................................................................42.红利价值表现占优，银行和煤炭行业表现较好............................................................................................43.国际市场主要指数涨幅不一.........................................................................................................................5二、2024年上半年国内外经济情况..............................................................................................61.国内宏观经济数据：经济平稳复苏，出口同比增幅持续走扩......................................................................62.国内宏观政策：新“国九条”助力资本市场高质量发展，财政政策和货币政策协调发力.............................103.国内产业政策：持续关注政策驱动下景气改善的行业...............................................................................134.海外宏观经济：美国通胀数据同比增速放缓，发达经济体通胀回落有望开启降息周期...........................155.全球重要事件：全球选举背景下，不确定性和不稳定性因素上升............................................................17三、A股流动性分析...................................................................................................................181.公募基金新基金发行表现持续向好，股票型基金发行偏冷.......................................................................182.投资者风险偏好降低，融资融券余额有所下降..........................................................................................183.上半年北向资金整体净流入.......................................................................................................................194.上半年上市公司回购、增持规模整体处于历史较高水平...........................................................................20四、投资建议.............................................................................................................................201.红利价值配置性价比占优..........................................................................................................................202.关注一季度业绩增速较快的行业...............................................................................................................223.关注新质生产力相关行业..........................................................................................................................234.黄金和铜的中长期投资机会.......................................................................................................................24 .........................................................................................................................5..................................................................................................................5....................................................................................................................................................6......................................................................................................................................................7......................................................................................................................................................7...........................................................................................................................................8.....................................................................................................................................8.......................................................................................................................................................9...............................................................................................................................................9....................................................................................................................................................9................................................................................................................................10....................................................................................................................................10 ............................................................................................................................12............................................................................................................................13.....................................................................................................................14.......................................................................................................................................15...............................................................................................................................................15............................................................................................................................16.....................................................................................................................16.........................................................................................................................17.................