2024年宏观经济与资本市场展望：花开会有时

——2024年宏观经济与资本市场展望 丁安华招商银行首席经济学家0755-83195106dinganhua@cmbchina.com 陆文东招商银行研究院总经理0755-83077289luwendong@cmbchina.com 谭卓招商银行研究院宏观经济研究所所长0755-83167787zhuotan@cmbchina.com 刘东亮招商银行研究院资本市场研究所所长0755-82956697liudongliang@cmbchina.com 感谢牛梦琦、王欣恬、刘阳、王天程、张冰莹、柏禹含、陈峤、苏畅、石武斌、赵宇、丁木桥对本文的贡献。 概要 ◼展望2024年，美国经济减速但韧性仍然较强，加息周期结束但降息幅度受限。财政扩张的边际收敛和货币紧缩的滞后效应可能带来经济回落，但幅度可能低于市场预期。一是财政力度仍然系统性高于疫前水平，二是美国住房市场处于补库存阶段，三是新一轮知识产权投资方兴未艾。与此同时，服务通胀粘性可能令抗通胀于“最后一公里”遇阻，限制美联储降息的速度和幅度。不同于以往的“缓起急落”，本轮利率周期可能呈现出“急起缓落”的特征。 ◼中国经济将在“统筹发展和安全”的指导思想下前行。发展方面，2024年将聚焦经济建设中心工作，推动实现高质量发展，GDP增速或继续锚定5%。经济增长动能有望在上半年大幅改善，下半年趋稳。在需求端，固定资产投资增速有望在政策托举下进一步提升，与公共部门相关的基建和制造业投资将成为经济增长的重要拉动，房地产投资跌幅有望小幅收敛。消费增速自高位下行，动能继续向潜在水平修复，对增长的贡献趋弱。由于海外经济动能衰减，我国出口或在当前水平小幅正增长，净出口对经济增长或仍呈拖累。供给端有望随需求改善持续修复。物价方面，PPI通胀有望小幅回正，CPI通胀有望向合意水平趋近。安全方面，将着重防范化解房地产、地方债务和中小金融机构重点领域风险。 ◼财政政策将积极作为，兼顾托底经济增长和防范化解地方债务风险。财政政策积极程度或高于2023年，官方赤字率或为3.6%，对应赤字规模5.0万亿；其中年初目标赤字率或相对审慎，仍为3.0%，之后或相机抉择，再度增发1万亿国债或“特别国债”；新增专项债限额或为4.0万亿，较2023年增加2,000亿；政策性银行或加强发力。同时，或继续发行特殊再融资债券，额度为1-1.5万亿。 ◼货币金融方面，2024年外部约束有望减弱，内部目标权重相应上升，货币政策将灵活适度、精准有效，着力提振市场信心，推动降低实际利率。基准情形下，或有2次降准、2次MLF降息，考虑到商业银行净息差已收窄至历史新低，1年期和5年期以上LPR或延续非对称调降。受财政和准财政政策支撑，社融增速有望上行；私人部门资金活性有望提升，但居民购房意愿低迷导致存款中枢仍高，M2增速与今年大致相当，略低于社融增速，广义流动性重回缺口。 ◼大类资产配置策略建议股债均衡。展望2024年，资本市场运转的齿轮悄然出现一些积极变量，首先是美联储结束加息周期；其次是外部环境出现边际修复；再次是稳增长政策归位，国内经济将边际修复。预计2024年稳健与进取类组合收益都将有所提升。各资产中，美元债回报将显著好于中债，中债回报或与2023年相当，A股回报将好于2023年。建议高配A股成长风格、美债；中高配黄金、A股、港股科技股、A股消费风格、日元；标配中国国债、信用债、美股、美元、人民币、欧元和英镑；中低配A股周期风格。 目录 一、宏观主线：美国延续韧性，中国聚焦发展·······················1 （一）美国经济：难解的冲突························································1（二）中国经济：“统筹发展和安全”················································7（三）中国金融：供需回归，利率震荡···········································13 二、海外经济：繁华褪去，韧性犹存·································17 （一）宏观政策：周期错位，滚动支撑···········································17（二）美国经济：增速放缓，动能转换···········································19（三）美联储：政策转向，空间受限··············································24 三、中国政策：积极有效，创新协同·································28 （一）财政政策：积极作为稳增长，加力提效防风险························28（二）货币金融：做好逆周期调节，充实政策工具箱························33 四、中国经济：政策托举，动能回升·································38 （一）进出口：商品顺差持平，服务逆差扩张·································38（二）消费：趋势回归································································40（三）投资：维持韧性································································42（四）供给侧：生产加速修复，利润稳步回升·································47（五）通胀：温和修复································································49 五、资本市场：因素积极，回报改善·································52 （一）2023年市场回顾：境外股市上涨，境内股弱债强····················52（二）主要市场研判：境内风险偏好提升，境外看好美债、黄金·········54（三）资产配置策略：股债均衡配置，重视结构性机会·····················68 图目录 图1：美国国债收益率期限利差持续倒挂······························································1图2：2023财年美国财政意外扩张·····································································1图3：美联储此轮加息斜率创下历史之最······························································2图4：美国公共部门赤字规模持续扩大·································································2图5：高通胀助推美国财政扩张··········································································2图6：美国居民收入持续增长·············································································2图7：美国居民付息压力仍处历史低位·································································3图8:美国企业部门债务平均期限高企·································································3图9：美国居民消费倾向显著高于疫前水平···························································4图10：美国居民超额储蓄已经耗尽·····································································4图11：美国住房市场库存周期或已反转·······························································5图12：美国地产投资环比增速于三季度转正·························································5图13：美国劳动参与率趋势性下行·····································································6图14：美国住房服务通胀韧性仍存·····································································6图15：财政扩张和货币紧缩共振推升利率····························································6图16：美国政策冲突的利率影响超过经济影响······················································6图17：中国经济动能波动放缓···········································································8图18：政府预期增长目标保持连贯和稳健····························································8图19：“三驾马车”动能或延续今年格局································································9图20：长期增长有赖于创新驱动········································································9图21：房地产销售投资较历史峰值大幅收缩·······················································10图22：住户资金占房企资金来源一半以上··························································10图23：全口径政府部门杠杆率快速增长·····························································11图24：政府部门债务增长快于名义GDP····························································11图25：地方政府债务规模和增速远超中央··························································12图26：中国中央政府债务占比偏低···································································12图27：城农商行不良贷款率均高于净息差··························································13图28：城农商行资本充足率低于大型银行··························································13图29：广义